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Future scenarios in agriculture. Nick Vink Institute for Futures Research Department of Agricultural Economics University of Stellenbosch [email protected] Outline. Foresight Project Report BFAP Outlook Supply considerations Demand considerations Africa.

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Future scenarios in agriculture

Future scenarios in agriculture

Nick Vink

Institute for Futures Research

Department of Agricultural Economics

University of Stellenbosch

[email protected]


  • Foresight Project Report

  • BFAP Outlook

  • Supply considerations

  • Demand considerations

  • Africa

1. The Foresight ProjectForesight. The Future of Food and Farming (2011). Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London

The five challenges
The five challenges

  • Balancing future demand and supply sustainably – to ensure that food supplies are affordable.

  • Ensuring that there is adequate stability in food supplies – and protecting the most vulnerable from the volatility that does occur.

  • Achieving global access to food and ending hunger. Producing enough food is not the same thing as ensuring food security for all.

  • Managing the contribution of the food system to the mitigation of climate change.

  • Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world.

Six drivers of change population increase
Six drivers of change: Population increase

  • To 8bn by 2030 and >9bn by 2050

  • Most in poorer countries: Africa’s population will double to two billion by 2050

  • Factors affecting population size include

    • GDP growth

    • Educational attainment

    • Access to contraception

    • Gender equality

    • The extent of female education

    • Urbanisation

Six drivers of change per capita demand for food
Six drivers of change: per capita demand for food

  • Some food items (such as grain-fed meat) require more resources to produce than others

  • Meat: increases in per capita consumption from 32 kg today to 52 kg by the middle of the century: implications for land, water and other inputs

  • Fish: demand is expected to increase substantially, and mostly met by aquaculture: consequences for the management of aquatic habitats and the supply of feed

Six drivers of change governance of the food system
Six drivers of change: governance of the food system

  • The globalisation of markets

  • The emergence and continued growth of new food superpowers: Brazil, China and India

  • The trend for consolidation in transnational companies in agribusiness, and food retail

Six drivers of change governance of the food system1
Six drivers of change: governance of the food system

  • Production subsidies, trade restrictions and other market interventions of the rich countries

  • The extent to which governments act collectively to face challenges in shared resources, trade and volatility in agricultural markets.

  • The control of increasing areas of land for food production such as in Africa

Six drivers of change climate change
Six drivers of change: climate change

  • The backdrop is rising temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation

  • These will affect crop growth and livestock performance and the functioning of ecosystem services

  • Extreme weather events will increase price volatility

  • Policies for climate change mitigation will also impact on the food system

Six drivers of change competition for key resources
Six drivers of change: competition for key resources

  • Land for food production: Additional land is available for food production, but in practice land will come under pressure for other uses

  • Land will be lost to erosion, urbanisation, recreation, desertification, salination and sea level rise

  • Global energy demand: Double to 2050, and the food system is vulnerable to higher energy costs

  • Global water demand: Agriculture currently consumes 70% of ‘blue water’ withdrawals, and demand could double by 2050.

Six drivers of change food ethics
Six drivers of change: food ethics

  • A major influence on politicians and policy makers and on patterns of consumption

  • Examples include

    • The acceptability of modern technology (GM)

    • Production methods such as organic and related management systems

    • The value placed on animal welfare

    • The relative importance of environmental sustainability and biodiversity protection

    • Issues of equity and fair trade

Bfap baseline
BFAP Baseline

  • World market: OECD-FAO Aglink Cosimo model and the FAPRI US and World Agricultural Outlook

  • Macroeconomic assumptions

  • South African supply and demand

  • Cooperation with industries

  • Farm level analyses

  • Building scenarios around the assumptions

Gross value of field crops recovery then flattening out
Gross value of field cropsRecovery, then flattening out

Most important trends
Most important trends

  • Historically high levels of yields for maize (>4.5 t/ha) and wheat

  • Shift out of (white) maize and towards soybeans and sunflower

  • Area planted to oilseeds will reach 1.2m ha in 2020, compared to 2.2m ha for maize

  • Rise and rise in consumption of poultry meat: 2.2m ton/year in 2020, compared to beef (<1m ton)

  • SA remains a net importer of all meat

  • Growth in dairy to 2.6m ton in 2020: cheese fastest growing

Annual real food price indices 2002 2004 100 source fao 2011
ANNUAL REAL FOOD PRICE INDICES (2002-2004=100)Source: FAO, 2011

Growth in land under irrigation 1961 2007
Growth in land under irrigation, 1961-2007 countries, 1997/1999 and 2030

Potential irrigated land and irrigated land in use in developing countries 1997 1999 and 2030
Potential irrigated land and irrigated land in use in developing countries, 1997/1999 and 2030

Wine exports to africa
Wine exports to Africa 2009

  • Total wine exports have declined the past 3 years

  • Packaged exports declined most

  • SA is therefore exporting more bulk wine (little value added)

  • BUT the market for packaged wine in Africa is growing fast