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Mounting Pressures Facing the U.S. Workforce and the Increasing Need for Adult Education and Literacy. Patrick J. Kelly National Center for Higher Education Management Systems. 100. 25 to 34 Year Olds. 90. 45 to 54 Year Olds. 80. 70. 60.

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slide1
Mounting Pressures Facing the U.S. Workforce and the Increasing Need for Adult Education and Literacy

Patrick J. KellyNational Center for Higher Education Management Systems

slide2

100

25 to 34 Year Olds

90

45 to 54 Year Olds

80

70

60

The United States ranks 11th among OECD countries in the percentage of young adults with a high school diploma – the only country in which the younger adults are less educated than the previous generation.

50

40

30

20

10

0

Italy

Japan

Spain

Korea

France

Poland

Ireland

Greece

Iceland

Austria

Finland

Mexico

Turkey

Norway

Canada

Sweden

Belgium

Portugal

Germany

Hungary

Australia

Denmark

Switzerland

Netherlands

Luxembourg

United States

New Zealand

Czech Republic

Slovak Republic

United Kingdom

Percentage of Adults with at Least a High School Diploma by Age-Group 2004

Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Economic Development, 2006 Education at a Glance

slide3

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

97.0

100

95.5

94.0

94.0

93.7

93.6

92.8

92.1

91.4

90.9

90.6

89.7

89.4

88.7

88.7

88.0

87.6

87.2

87.1

86.7

86.4

86.2

86.3

86.1

85.9

84.3

84.1

83.4

83.2

82.2

82.0

80.8

78.9

77.6

77.5

80

75.9

72.8

70.6

69.3

65.0

64.0

58.6

57.2

60

40

33.8

20

0

Korea

Norway

Japan

Slovak

Czech

Sweden

Canada

Finland

Switzerland

Austria

United

Republic

Republic

States

Percent of Adults with a High School Diploma by Age-Group – The U.S. and Leading OECD Countries (2004)

Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2005

slide4

60

25 to 34

50

45 to 54

40

30

20

10

0

Italy

Spain

Japan

Korea

Poland

Mexico

Greece

Austria

Finland

Ireland

Iceland

France

Turkey

Norway

Belgium

Canada

Sweden

Portugal

Germany

Hungary

Australia

Denmark

Switzerland

Netherlands

Luxembourg

New Zealand

United States

Czech Republic

Slovak Republic

United Kingdom

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults – The U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004

Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2006

slide5

Percent of Adults with an Associates Degree or Higher by Age-Group – The U.S. and Leading OECD Countries (2004)

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

60

53.3

51.6

49.1

50

47.0

45.1

42.3

41.4

40.7

40.7

40.4

39.4

39.2

39.0

40

36.2

35.7

34.5

34.1

33.5

32.9

32.7

32.3

29.4

28.9

30

27.3

25.2

23.2

21.5

20.0

19.2

20

16.4

15.7

9.7

10

0

Canada

Japan

Korea

Sweden

Belgium

Ireland

Norway

United States

Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2005

slide6

Short-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award)

11.4%

Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award)

8.5%

Long-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award)

8.7%

Work Experience in Related Occupation (No Formal Award)

9.6%

Postsecondary Vocational Award

17.7%

Associates Degrees

25.1%

Bachelor's Degree

19.6%

Postsecondary Degree Plus Work Experience

16.6%

Masters Degree

18.8%

Doctorate Degree

30.8%

Professional Degree

19.0%

0%

7%

14%

21%

28%

35%

Changing Workforce Needs: The Projected Percentage Employment Growth in the U.S. from 2004 to 2014 by Level of Education Required

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

slide7

Changing Workforce Needs: The Projected Number Employment Growth in the U.S. from 2004 to 2014 by Level of Education Required

(In Thousands)

Short-Term On-the-Job

5,891

Training (No Formal Award)

Moderate-Term On-the-Job

2,473

Training (No Formal Award)

Long-Term On-the-Job

960

Training (No Formal Award)

Work Experience in Related

1,057

Occupation (No Formal

Award)

Employment Requiring

Some Level of

8,526

Postsecondary Education

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

participation in the workforce by level of education 2000 percent

100

Participating in the Workforce

Not Participating in the Workforce

87.6

84.6

82.7

79.3

80

73.0

60

56.8

43.2

40

27.0

20.7

20

17.3

15.4

12.4

0

Less than HS

High School

Some College

Associate

Bachelor's

Graduate/Prof.

Participation in the Workforce by Level of Education, 2000 (Percent)

Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 5% sample, www.ipums.org

slide9

Projected Change in U.S. Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity From 2000 to 2020 (In Millions)

White

African-American

Hispanic /Latino

Asian /Pacific Islander

15

12.40

The majority of expected growth in our young population from 2000 to 2020 is among segments of our population that have the lowest levels of education – while whites are projected to decline.

10

7.32

7.12

6.50

5.49

5

3.69

2.97

2.79

2.29

2.03

1.87

1.57

1.41

1.20

1.11

0.42

0.33

0

0 to 17

18 to 24

25 to 44

45 to 64

65 and Older

-0.88

-1.83

-5

-6.59

Note: Projections based on the 2000 Census are not available for Native Americans

-10

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Projections based on the 2000 Decennial Census

slide10

100%

78.4%

80%

69.3%

68.8%

64.6%

62.5%

61.8%

58.2%

60%

57.4%

54.5%

47.8%

45.8%

39.7%

40%

36.5%

32.7%

31.1%

30.3%

28.6%

24.3%

20%

Not Available

0%

Graduating from High

Attending College Directly

Three-Year Graduation Rate

Six-Year Graduation Rate at

School Within Four Years

Out of High School

at Two-Year Colleges

Four-Year Colleges

Transition and Completion Measures from High School to College Completion for the U.S. – 2004

White

Roughly half of Hispanics and African-Americans don’t complete high school within four years.

African-American

Hispanic /Latino

Native American

Asian /Pacific Islander

Source: National Center for Education Statistics; Common Core Data, Digest of Education Statistics, and IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

slide11

8,000,000

Given current educational attainment disparities by race/ethnicity and projected changes in the population, it is likely that the segment of our population with less than a high school diploma will grow more than any other – unless successful intervention takes place.

Less than High School

7,378,402

High School

Some College

Associates

6,000,000

Bachelor’s

Graduate/Professional

4,834,077

4,000,000

3,656,845

2,368,743

2,000,000

1,382,160

1,096,163

0

Source: NCHEMS, As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality

Number Changes in Educational Attainment from 2000 to 2020 as a Result of the Projected Changes in Race/Ethnicity (25 to 64 Year Olds)

target populations
Target Populations
  • Adults with no high school diplomas (or equivalent)
  • High school only completers unprepared for the workforce or to enter college (the best proxy we have – those whose family incomes are less than a living wage)
  • English as a Second Language (ESL) – with less than a high school diploma (or equivalent) or just a high school diploma
  • Incarcerated population
slide13

25%

19.8%

18.9%

18.8%

20%

17.6%

17.1%

16.9%

16.9%

16.6%

16.2%

15.9%

15.8%

15.8%

15.5%

15.5%

14.6%

14.2%

14.1%

15%

13.8%

13.6%

13.6%

13.3%

13.3%

13.1%

13.0%

12.7%

12.5%

12.2%

12.2%

11.7%

11.4%

11.3%

11.3%

11.0%

10.8%

10.3%

10.3%

10.2%

10.1%

9.9%

9.6%

9.4%

9.4%

9.3%

10%

8.9%

8.9%

8.8%

8.4%

8.3%

8.1%

8.0%

7.8%

6.9%

5%

0%

Utah

Ohio

Iowa

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Florida

Hawaii

Kansas

Indiana

Oregon

Nevada

Arizona

Georgia

Virginia

Vermont

Missouri

Montana

Alabama

Arkansas

Colorado

Nebraska

Delaware

Michigan

Kentucky

Maryland

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Tennessee

Oklahoma

New York

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Dist of Col

Mississippi

New Jersey

Washington

Connecticut

New Mexico

Rhode Island

Pennsylvania

United States

South Dakota

North Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

South Carolina

North Carolina

New Hampshire

Percent of Adults 18 to 64 Year Old with Less than a High School Diploma (or Equivalent) 2005

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

slide14

30%

25.2%

24.9%

24.1%

25%

23.5%

23.5%

23.1%

23.1%

22.4%

22.3%

22.3%

22.0%

22.0%

21.5%

20.9%

20.8%

20.6%

20.5%

20.4%

19.7%

19.6%

19.6%

19.6%

19.5%

19.2%

19.2%

19.1%

18.8%

18.7%

20%

18.0%

17.9%

17.9%

17.6%

17.6%

17.5%

17.3%

17.1%

17.0%

16.9%

16.2%

16.2%

16.0%

16.0%

15.9%

15.8%

15.8%

15.6%

15.5%

15.4%

15.3%

14.4%

15%

11.9%

10%

8.3%

5%

0%

Utah

Ohio

Iowa

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Florida

Hawaii

Kansas

Indiana

Oregon

Nevada

Georgia

Arizona

Virginia

Vermont

Missouri

Montana

Alabama

Arkansas

Colorado

Nebraska

Delaware

Michigan

Kentucky

Maryland

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Oklahoma

Tennessee

New York

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Dist of Col

Mississippi

New Jersey

Washington

Connecticut

New Mexico

Rhode Island

Pennsylvania

United States

South Dakota

North Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

North Carolina

South Carolina

New Hampshire

Percent of Adults 18 to 24 Year Old with Less than a High School Diploma (or Equivalent) 2005

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

slide15

Distribution (%) of Residents 18 to 64 with Less than a High School Diploma by Grade-Level Completed and State, 2005

9th to 12th Grade (No Completion)

5th to 8th Grade

Less than 5th Grade

No School

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Utah

Iowa

Ohio

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Kansas

Hawaii

Florida

Oregon

Indiana

Nevada

Arizona

Georgia

Virginia

Missouri

Vermont

Montana

Alabama

Arkansas

Colorado

Nebraska

Delaware

Michigan

Kentucky

Maryland

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Tennessee

Oklahoma

New York

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Dist of Col

Mississippi

New Jersey

Washington

Connecticut

New Mexico

Rhode island

Pennsylvania

United States

South Dakota

North Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

North Carolina

South Carolina

New Hampshire

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey Note: Excludes 18 to 24 year olds enrolled in school

slide16

3,000,000

2,579,656

U.S. = 8,339,734

2,400,000

1,800,000

1,274,890

1,200,000

661,822

572,991

600,000

405,061

291,011

266,011

204,657

160,927

159,443

137,938

131,889

117,677

117,279

108,092

88,618

86,029

74,434

68,428

62,005

59,181

55,941

50,621

48,540

47,318

46,692

45,469

43,355

39,898

33,692

32,805

31,263

29,476

28,453

26,823

26,484

23,803

20,758

17,203

14,747

14,360

10,684

6,469

4,344

4,326

3,425

2,840

589

516

465

336

0

Utah

Ohio

Iowa

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Florida

Hawaii

Kansas

Oregon

Indiana

Nevada

Arizona

Georgia

Virginia

Vermont

Missouri

Montana

Alabama

Colorado

Arkansas

Nebraska

Michigan

Delaware

Maryland

Kentucky

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Tennessee

Oklahoma

New York

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Dist of Col

Mississippi

New Jersey

Washington

Connecticut

New Mexico

Rhode island

Pennsylvania

South Dakota

North Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

South Carolina

North Carolina

New Hampshire

Number of Residents Ages 18 to 64 Who Speak English Poorly or Not at All by State, 2005

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

slide17

4,500,000

3,997,270

U.S. = 8,339,734

3,000,000

2,459,145

1,883,319

1,500,000

696,499

530,690

269,852

204,856

0

Less than 9th

9th to 12th

High School

Some

Associate

Bachelor's

Graduate or

Grade

Grade (No

College

Professional

Diploma)

Number of U.S. Residents Ages 18 to 64 Who Speak English Poorly or Not at All by Level of Education Completed, 2005

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

slide18

4,500,000

3,707,705

U.S. = 28,770,543

3,038,986

3,000,000

1,761,945

1,723,791

1,500,000

1,090,711

1,089,271

1,034,744

1,001,589

973,247

843,119

789,126

629,606

611,202

611,190

595,907

588,529

568,872

555,734

542,814

514,962

498,705

432,751

410,267

395,163

394,303

382,354

365,538

338,720

337,262

289,130

265,229

255,476

242,116

228,546

218,909

189,630

170,458

151,810

131,886

121,427

84,571

76,359

75,638

70,149

69,587

66,142

54,387

58,646

47,705

40,862

33,767

0

Utah

Ohio

Iowa

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Florida

Hawaii

Kansas

Indiana

Oregon

Nevada

Georgia

Arizona

Virginia

Vermont

Missouri

Montana

Alabama

Arkansas

Colorado

Nebraska

Michigan

Delaware

Kentucky

Maryland

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Tennessee

Oklahoma

New York

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Dist of Col

Mississippi

New Jersey

Washington

Connecticut

New Mexico

Rhode island

Pennsylvania

South Dakota

North Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

North Carolina

South Carolina

New Hampshire

Number of Residents Ages 18 to 64 with Just a High School Diploma or Less in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage* by State, 2005

* 200% of Poverty Level

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

slide19

Number of U.S. Residents Ages 18 to 64 in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage by Education Level Completed, 2005

18,000,000

15,801,210

15,000,000

U.S. = 28,770,543

12,000,000

9,000,000

8,050,077

7,144,389

6,000,000

4,919,256

2,765,001

3,000,000

2,030,729

887,438

0

Less than 9th

9th to 12th

High School

Some College

Associates

Bachelor's

Graduate and

Grade

Grade (No

Diploma

Professional

Diploma)

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

slide20

Proportion of Residents Ages 18 to 64 in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage Within Each Education Attainment Category, 2005

80%

61.0%

60%

46.5%

40%

29.9%

20%

17.5%

14.5%

8.9%

5.5%

0%

Less than 9th

9th to 12th

High School

Some College

Associates

Bachelor's

Graduate and

Grade

Grade (No

Diploma

Professional

Diploma)

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

slide21

Adult Education and Literacy: Target Population in 2005

18 to 64 Year Olds, 2005

Target Population (Exclusive Categories)

ESL: High School Diploma Only or Less – No or Poor Ability to Speak English

8,339,734

Not Prepared for College or Work: High School Diploma Only, In Families Earning Less than a Living Wage (Not ESL)

14,494,128

Target Population

42,357,936

(23.5%)

138,127,986

No High School Diploma or Equivalent (Not ESL)

19,524,074

Note: Incarcerated population not separated out. All of the above categories include incarcerated individuals.

Sources: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey: Public Use Microdata Samples

slide22

35

ESL: High School Diploma Only or Less, No or Poor Ability to Speak English

32.4

High School Diploma, Earning Less than a Living Wage (Not ESL)

30.5

30.3

29.9

29.7

Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent (Not ESL)

29.3

30

29.0

28.9

28.2

27.5

27.2

27.1

26.3

25.9

25.9

25.8

24.6

25

24.2

23.5

23.1

22.9

22.9

22.7

21.9

21.5

21.2

21.2

20.9

20.8

20.2

20.1

20.0

19.6

19.4

20

18.8

18.7

18.6

18.4

18.4

17.9

17.9

17.5

17.4

17.3

16.9

16.8

16.2

16.1

15.9

15.0

15

13.6

13.6

10

5

0

Utah

Ohio

Iowa

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Florida

Kansas

Hawaii

Indiana

Oregon

Nevada

Arizona

Georgia

Virginia

Missouri

Montana

Vermont

Alabama

Arkansas

Colorado

Nebraska

Michigan

Delaware

Kentucky

Maryland

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Tennessee

Oklahoma

New York

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Dist of Col

Mississippi

New Jersey

Washington

Connecticut

New Mexico

Rhode island

United States

Pennsylvania

South Dakota

North Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

South Carolina

North Carolina

New Hampshire

Adult Education and Literacy: Target Populations as a Percentage of all 18 to 64 Year Olds by State, 2005

Note: Incarcerated population not separated out. All of the above categories include incarcerated individuals.

Sources: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey: Public Use Microdata Samples

slide23

600

515

494

500

428

There were 1,525,924 prisoners in 2005

400

311

300

211

200

146

100

0

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Incarceration Rate in the U.S. – Prisoners Under Federal and State Jurisdiction Per 100,000 Residents, 1980 to 2005

Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics, US Census Bureau

slide24

1,000

823

798

800

739

725

702

700

612

600

564

554

544

537

531

515

505

490

488

486

482

477

472

471

467

460

446

442

419

410

406

402

400

390

375

400

368

352

341

341

340

334

330

326

314

295

292

276

258

253

218

193

181

200

167

153

0

Utah

Ohio

Iowa

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Florida

Hawaii

Kansas

Indiana

Oregon

Nevada

Arizona

Georgia

Virginia

Vermont

Missouri

Montana

Alabama

Arkansas

Colorado

Nebraska

Delaware

Michigan

Kentucky

Maryland

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Oklahoma

Tennessee

New York

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Mississippi

New Jersey

Connecticut

Washington

New Mexico

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

United States

South Dakota

North Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

North Carolina

South Carolina

New Hampshire

Incarceration Rate by State in 2005 – Prisoners Under Federal and State Jurisdiction Per 100,000 Residents

Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics, US Census Bureau

slide25

Total Population

Prison Population

50%

43.1%

40%

34.0%

31.6%

29.3%

30%

22.6%

20%

12.3%

10.1%

9.6%

10%

4.5%

2.9%

0%

Less than 9th Grade

9th to 12th Grade,

High School

Some College

College Graduate or

No Diploma

Graduate (Includes

No Degree

More

Equivalency)

Educational Attainment of 18 to 64 Year Olds – Total U.S. Population vs. the Prison Population

Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics 2002 data, US Census Bureau 2005 data

performance
Performance
  • ABE Participation (data available only for state administered adult education programs)
  • GED Production
  • College Participation of Non-Traditional Adults
slide27

Enrollment in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1,000 Residents with Less than a High School Diploma by Age-Group, 2005

(United States)

350

278

280

210

140

107

70

22

0

16 to 24*

25 to 44

45 and Older

* 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled

Source: US Department of Education

slide28

788

800

606

600

533

481

446

429

405

381

380

400

365

361

341

339

322

321

320

308

298

296

278

272

251

245

236

231

229

226

220

219

212

208

207

206

195

195

192

192

190

186

185

181

200

176

153

152

150

139

118

116

109

95

92

63

0

Utah

Iowa

Ohio

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Florida

Hawaii

Kansas

Indiana

Oregon

Nevada

Georgia

Arizona

Virginia

Vermont

Missouri

Montana

Alabama

Arkansas

Colorado

Nebraska

Delaware

Michigan

Kentucky

Maryland

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Dis of Col

Tennessee

Oklahoma

New York

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Mississippi

New Jersey

Connecticut

Washington

New Mexico

Rhode Island

Pennsylvania

United States

North Dakota

South Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

North Carolina

South Carolina

New Hampshire

Enrollment of 16 to 24 Year Olds in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1,000 16 to 24 Year Olds with Less than a High School Diploma, 2005

* 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled

Source: US Department of Education

slide29

Enrollment of 25 to 44 Year Olds in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1,000 25 to 44 Year Olds with Less than a High School Diploma, 2005

280

250

213

210

187

168

158

153

146

141

139

138

140

129

128

127

123

115

107

107

103

98

96

95

94

94

93

89

89

87

86

85

85

84

82

80

80

79

77

76

75

74

73

71

70

68

66

70

55

54

52

52

48

48

42

38

0

Utah

Iowa

Ohio

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Florida

Hawaii

Kansas

Oregon

Indiana

Nevada

Georgia

Arizona

Virginia

Vermont

Missouri

Montana

Alabama

Colorado

Arkansas

Nebraska

Delaware

Michigan

Kentucky

Maryland

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Dis of Col

Oklahoma

Tennessee

New York

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Mississippi

New Jersey

Connecticut

Washington

New Mexico

Rhode Island

Pennsylvania

United States

South Dakota

North Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

South Carolina

North Carolina

New Hampshire

Source: US Department of Education

slide30

100

84.5

80

60

40

20

14.9

4.7

0.5

0

16 to 24*

25 to 34

35 to 49

50 and Older

GEDs Awarded Per 1,000 Adults with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent by Age-Group, 2005

(United States)

* 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled

Source: GED Testing Service, US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

slide31

240

North Dakota = 340

202

185

183

180

156

153

141

141

138

130

129

128

125

123

121

120

117

117

114

120

110

110

109

109

106

106

106

106

105

100

96

95

94

92

92

88

85

84

84

82

79

78

76

75

74

71

70

70

68

63

62

60

33

31

0

Utah

Iowa

Ohio

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Hawaii

Florida

Kansas

Oregon

Indiana

Nevada

Georgia

Arizona

Virginia

Vermont

Montana

Missouri

Alabama

Arkansas

Colorado

Nebraska

Michigan

Delaware

Kentucky

Maryland

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Tennessee

Dis of Col

Oklahoma

New York

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Mississippi

New Jersey

Washington

Connecticut

New Mexico

Rhode island

Pennsylvania

United States

North Dakota

South Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

North Carolina

South Carolina

New Hampshire

GEDs Awarded to Adults Ages 16 to 24 per 1,000 Adults Ages 16 to 24* with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2005

* 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled

Source: GED Testing Service, US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

slide32

45

39

35

35

32

31

30

30

29

27

26

25

25

25

25

23

23

23

21

21

20

20

20

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

17

17

17

16

15

15

15

14

14

14

15

13

13

13

13

12

11

10

9

9

6

0

Utah

Iowa

Ohio

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Hawaii

Florida

Kansas

Indiana

Oregon

Nevada

Georgia

Arizona

Virginia

Vermont

Montana

Missouri

Alabama

Arkansas

Colorado

Nebraska

Michigan

Delaware

Kentucky

Maryland

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Tennessee

Oklahoma

Dis of Col

New York

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Mississippi

New Jersey

Washington

Connecticut

New Mexico

Rhode island

Pennsylvania

United States

North Dakota

South Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

North Carolina

South Carolina

New Hampshire

GEDs Awarded to Adults Ages 25 to 34 per 1,000 Adults Ages 25 to 34 with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2005

Source: GED Testing Service, US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

slide33

40%

33.7

32.4

30

27.2

21.9

20

10

0

1990

1995

2000

2005

Percent of All GEDs Awarded to High School Aged Students (16 to 18 Years Old), from 1990 to 2005

Source: GED Testing Service

slide34

30%

25.6

25.1

1990

2005

25

20

16.1

14.1

15

13.9

13.7

12.7

11.9

10.9

9.5

10

6.8

6.7

6.2

6.0

4.9

4.4

5

3.9

2.3

1.5

1.0

0.8

0.3

0

16

17

18

19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-49

50-59

60 +

Age

Distribution (%) of GEDs Awarded by Age-Group, 1990 and 2005

Source: GED Testing Service

slide35

40

33.7

30

25.9

25.7

25.6

22.3

21.8

20.7

20.4

20.1

20.1

19.6

19.3

18.0

20

15.8

15.6

14.8

14.6

13.7

13.6

13.5

13.4

12.4

12.4

12.3

11.8

11.8

11.6

10.6

10.3

10.2

9.8

9.5

9.3

9.2

9.1

8.9

10

7.0

6.6

Pennsylvania

5.2

4.1

Wyoming

Arizona

1.9

-0.1

0

-0.5

Utah

Iowa

Ohio

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Florida

Kansas

Indiana

Oregon

Georgia

Virginia

-3.0

Montana

Vermont

Missouri

Alabama

Colorado

Arkansas

Nebraska

Michigan

Delaware

Kentucky

Maryland

Tennessee

Oklahoma

New York

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Mississippi

New Jersey

Washington

Connecticut

New Mexico

Rhode Island

United States

North Dakota

South Dakota

Massachusetts

North Carolina

South Carolina

New Hampshire

-10

District of Columbia

-20

-21.9

-30

Change in the Percentage of All GEDs Awarded to High School Aged Students (Ages 16 to 18) by State from 1990 and 2005

Source: GED Testing Service Note: 1990 data not available for CA, HI, ID, IL, LA, NV, WV

slide36

45%

40.1%

30%

24.1%

23.2%

22.0%

19.8%

18.6%

17.7%

17.0%

16.9%

16.7%

16.1%

15.1%

15.0%

14.7%

14.8%

14.7%

14.5%

14.5%

14.4%

14.3%

14.0%

14.0%

13.9%

13.7%

13.2%

13.1%

13.0%

12.9%

12.8%

15%

12.2%

12.0%

12.0%

11.4%

11.1%

11.1%

10.9%

10.9%

10.7%

10.7%

10.6%

10.5%

10.5%

9.7%

9.6%

9.6%

9.1%

9.0%

8.6%

8.5%

7.6%

7.5%

0%

Utah

Iowa

Ohio

Idaho

Texas

Maine

Alaska

Illinois

Florida

Hawaii

Kansas

Oregon

Indiana

Nevada

Arizona

Georgia

Virginia

Vermont

Missouri

Montana

Alabama

Colorado

Arkansas

Nebraska

Michigan

Delaware

Maryland

Kentucky

Louisiana

Wyoming

California

Oklahoma

Tennessee

New York

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Mississippi

New Jersey

Washington

Connecticut

New Mexico

Rhode Island

Pennsylvania

United States

North Dakota

South Dakota

West Virginia

Massachusetts

North Carolina

South Carolina

New Hampshire

Enrollment of 25 to 49 Year Olds as a Percentage of 25 to 49 Year Olds with a High School Diploma But No College (2005)

Sources: NCES, IPEDS Enrollment Survey; US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

the importance of the re entry pipeline and the ability of the u s to remain globally competitive
The Importance of the “Re-Entry” Pipeline and the Ability of the U.S. to Remain Globally Competitive
slide38

80%

60%

55.0%

45.9%

41.9%

37.4%

40%

20%

0%

Current Percentage of

Projected Percentage

Projected Percentage

Percentage Needed to

Adults 25 to 64 with

in 2025 with Current

in 2025 with Current

Reach Best-Performing

College Degrees

Annual Degree

Annual Degree

Countries by 2025

(2005)

Production

Production and Net

Migration

Current Educational Attainment, Educational Attainment in 2025 with Current Degree Production, and the Best Performing Countries in 2025

(United States)

slide39

How Can the U.S. Reach International Competitiveness?

Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration, and Best Performance* on the Student Transition and Completion Measures

Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 with Current

40,605,747

Rate of Production

Additional Degrees from Population Growth

1,255,167

Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College-

7,045,932

Educated Residents

Reaching Best Performance In High School

1,265,118

Graduation Rates by 2025

Performance Measures Are Cumulative and Are Based on Traditional College-Age Students

Reaching Best Performance In College-Going Rates

3,270,900

by 2025

Reaching Best Performance In Rates of Degree

7,347,209

Production Per FTE Student

Total Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 If All of

60,790,073

the Above

Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%)

63,127,642

0

20

40

60

80

Millions

* Best performance is the average of the top three states.

slide40

Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Aged Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will Leave Gaps in More than 30 States

Texas

1,333,645

Florida

893,504

California

560,688

New Jersey

320,720

Tennessee

307,956

Nevada

287,565

Louisiana

204,814

Arkansas

186,640

Kentucky

159,765

North Carolina

132,748

Arizona

122,061

Mississippi

115,120

In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states can’t close the gap with even best performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline – getting older adults back into the education system and on track to attaining college degrees.

Ohio

114,375

South Carolina

112,681

Alabama

110,495

West Virginia

74,752

Alaska

65,853

Oklahoma

62,332

Oregon

53,995

Michigan

53,574

New Mexico

47,420

Wisconsin

44,757

Maine

39,436

Idaho

37,706

Montana

34,547

Hawaii

28,659

Georgia

25,326

Wyoming

24,741

Maryland

23,542

Connecticut

10,875

Missouri

8,898

Indiana

2,788

0

300,000

600,000

900,000

1,200,000

1,500,000

slide42

No school completed

$15,531

1st-4th grade

$14,894

5th-8th grade

$15,840

9th grade

$17,189

10th grade

$18,031

$19,095

11th grade

12th grade, no diploma

$22,319

High school graduate, or GED

$27,367

Some college, no degree

$34,644

Associate degree

$37,716

Bachelors degree

$54,532

Masters degree

$66,919

$107,353

Professional degree

Doctorate degree

$91,797

$0

$30,000

$60,000

$90,000

$120,000

Average Personal Income of 25 to 64 Year Olds by Level of Education Completed, 2005

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

slide43

Average Personal Income of 25 to 64 Year Olds by Level of Education Completed, 2005

No school completed

If these residents were to complete high school or equivalent, and the additional earnings associated it, the U.S. would experience a $191 billion increase in personal income

1st-4th grade

5th-8th grade

9th grade

10th grade

11th grade

12th grade, no diploma

High school graduate, or GED

$27,367

Some college, no degree

$34,644

Associate degree

$37,716

Bachelors degree

$54,532

Masters degree

$66,919

$107,353

Professional degree

Doctorate degree

$91,797

$0

$30,000

$60,000

$90,000

$120,000

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

slide44

Average Personal Income of 25 to 64 Year Olds by Level of Education Completed, 2005

No school completed

If these residents were to complete an associates degree, and the additional earnings associated it, the U.S. would experience a $848 billion increase in personal income

1st-4th grade

5th-8th grade

9th grade

10th grade

11th grade

12th grade, no diploma

High school graduate, or GED

Some college, no degree

$34,644

Associate degree

$37,716

Bachelors degree

$54,532

Masters degree

$66,919

$107,353

Professional degree

Doctorate degree

$91,797

$0

$30,000

$60,000

$90,000

$120,000

Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

slide45

The Relationship Between Personal Income and Tax Revenues

$45,000

CT

40,000

Correlation = 0.84

MA

NJ

MD

NY

35,000

CO

NH

MN

VA

DE

IL

Personal Income Per Capita, 2003

CA

AK

WA

RI

WY

PA

NV

US

MI

NE

HI

VT

FL

WI

30,000

OH

KS

MO

OR

TX

SD

IN

ND

GA

ME

IA

TN

NC

AZ

OK

MT

AL

SC

LA

KY

UT

25,000

ID

NM

WV

AR

MS

20,000

Actual Tax Revenues Per Capita, 2003

$2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

slide46

95

ND

MN

WY

MT

AK

ME

VT

SD

IA

NH

Correlation = 0.76

HI

WI

NE

CT

UT

KS

PA

MA

WA

90

MI

CO

MD

OH

NJ

OR

VA

MO

IL

DE

ID

IN

RI

FL

NY

OK

US

WV

NC

GA

SC

85

TN

AZ

AR

NM

LA

AL

NV

KY

MS

CA

TX

80

-25

0

25

State Health Index, United Health Foundation

The Relationship Between Education and Health

Percent of Adults with a High School Diploma or Higher

summary
Summary
  • For the first time in history, the U.S. is losing ground to other countries in educational attainment of its workforce
  • Increasing demand for higher levels of education within our own workforce – particularly in occupations that pay a living wage
  • Shifting demographics – within our workforce, race/ethnic populations that are growing at the highest rates are the least-educated, the most likely to drop out of high school, and the least successful in college.
  • Large Target Populations that Are Underserved
  • We are leaving a large segment of this population behind
  • Improvements in adult education and literacy are vital for the U.S. to remain competitive
  • There are tangible benefits to increasing the levels of education of those who fell out of the education system.