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Making sense of the 2014 European Parliament elections

Making sense of the 2014 European Parliament elections Michiel van Hulten, Managing Director, VoteWatch Europe Eurocommerce, Brussels, 2 8 May 2014. Our final prediction. Provisional results. 2014. 2009. Profit-loss account. Key characteristics.

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Making sense of the 2014 European Parliament elections

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  1. Making sense of the 2014 European Parliament elections Michiel van Hulten, Managing Director, VoteWatch Europe Eurocommerce, Brussels, 28 May 2014

  2. Our final prediction

  3. Provisional results 2014 2009

  4. Profit-loss account

  5. Key characteristics • Turnout stabilised at 43% after continuous decline since 1979 • Numbers shift from the centre to the extremes (especially on the right) • No fundamental change in left-right balance • No longer one single dominant political group

  6. Group formation

  7. Balance of power - EPP • FR, IT, ES down • DE, PL , CZ up • DE remains largest

  8. Balance of power – S&D • CZ, GR, HU, PL down • DE, IT, RO, UK up • IT largest

  9. Balance of power - ALDE • DE, UK down • HR, CZ, DK, ET, FI, FR, GR, • HU, LI, NL, SK, ES up • ES largest

  10. Key post-election steps • Nomination of Commission President • Formation of EP political groups • Election of EP political group leaders • Election of EP President and V-Ps • Election of Committee Chairs • Election of Commission President • Nomination of new Commissioners, hearing, confirmation vote

  11. Policy impact • Less support for strengthening EU and EP powers • No centre-left or centre-right majority, but attendance could have big impact • Probably no far right group, but lots of far right MEPs • Hemicycle arithmetic forces mainstream parties to work together • Majorities more volatile

  12. Possible coalitions (%) PRO-EU ANTI-EU

  13. Possible coalitions (%) Centre-right Centre-left

  14. Policy impact Economy • Less support for austerity • More calls for public spending • Push for tax harmonisation? • More regulation of the financial sector

  15. Policy impact Trade and internal market • Lengthier and more difficult negotiations on TTIP • Greater resistance to strengthening the internal market for services

  16. Policy impact Energy • Nuclear power will continue to be seen as playing a key role • Shale gas and oil exploration – EP majority likely positive • Support for pan-EU energy infrastructure

  17. Michiel van Hulten, Managing Director michiel@votewatcheurope.eu www.votewatch.eu @VoteWatchEurope /VoteWatchEurope

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