The Evolution of Predecessor Rainfall Events (PRE) with Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 20...
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The Evolution of Predecessor Rainfall Events (PRE) with Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season. Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr. WFO Binghamton, NY Northeast Regional Operational Workshop November 5, 2009 . AR TC Tracks and PRE Locations. All AR TC Tracks.

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The Evolution of Predecessor Rainfall Events (PRE) with Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr.

WFO Binghamton, NY

Northeast Regional Operational Workshop

November 5, 2009


Ar tc tracks and pre locations
AR TC Tracks and PRE Locations Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

All AR TC Tracks

All AR PPTC Tracks; with PRE centroids (colored dots)


Conceptual Model: LOT PREs Ahead Of SR Or AR TCs Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

UL Jet

LL θe-Ridge Axis

PREs

See inset

Mid-level Streamlines

TC Rainfall

Revised and updated from Fig. 13 of Bosart and Carr (1978)

Representative TC Tracks


Bill Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Brief history of bill himself
Brief History of Bill Himself Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

  • Bill was initially a Cape Verde tropical wave, which became a named storm on 15 August

  • From 19-23 August, Bill attained hurricane status well off the U.S. East Coast (briefly reached Category 3)

  • From 23-25 August, Bill transitioned to an extra-tropical system, as it recurved into the westerlies southeast of the Canadian maritime provinces


Bill s approximate path
Bill’s Approximate Path Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Heavy rainfall event across new england
Heavy Rainfall Event across New England Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Afternoon rainfall on 22 august
Afternoon Rainfall on 22 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Up to 7” (175 mm) rainfall


Radar loop
Radar Loop Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Water vapor loop
Water Vapor Loop Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


250 mb at 12z 22 august
250 mb at 12z, 22 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


250 mb at 00z 23 august
250 mb at 00z, 23 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


200 mb height wind pv 14z 22 august
200 mb Height/Wind/PV, 14z, 22 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


200 mb height wind pv 22z 22 august
200 mb Height/Wind/PV, 22z, 22 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Height Rises / PV Destruction


Surface analysis 18z 22 august
Surface Analysis, 18z, 22 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Possible PRE


850 mb moisture transport
850 mb Moisture Transport Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Possible PRE


700 mb heights 925 mb winds theta e at 21z 22 august
700 mb Heights, 925 mb Winds/Theta-E, at 21z, 22 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Near intersection of Bill’s moisture and pre-existing moist plume


Parcel trajectories into central new england
Parcel Trajectories into Central New England Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Bill’s Track


Bill summary
Bill Summary Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

  • Bill fit into the AR track for potential PRE-producing systems

  • One main heavy rain episode took place on the periphery of Bill’s influence

    • Southern NH on 22 August

    • 4-7” (up to 175 mm) of rain fell within just a few hours, causing flash flooding

  • Transient nature of heavier rain bands precluded excessive rainfall/runoff problems elsewhere


Danny
Danny Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Brief history of danny himself
Brief History of Danny Himself Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

  • Danny was initially a Cape Verde tropical wave, and took several days to become a named storm

  • Finally, on 26 August, it attained Tropical Storm status east of the Bahamas

  • From 26-29 August, Danny remained a Tropical Storm well off the Southeast U.S. coast

  • From 29-31 August, Danny weakened to a Tropical Depression, and ultimately transitioned to an extra-tropical system, as it recurved off the U.S. East Coast


Danny s approximate path
Danny’s Approximate Path Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Heavy rainfall event across the mid atlantic region
Heavy Rainfall Event across the Mid-Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Late night early morning rainfall 27 28 august
Late Night/Early Morning Rainfall, 27-28 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

4-8” (100-200 mm) rainfall


Radar loop1
Radar Loop Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


250 mb at 00z 28 august
250 mb at 00z, 28 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Water vapor loop1
Water Vapor Loop Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


700 mb heights 925 mb winds theta e at 05z 28 august
700 mb Heights, 925 mb Winds/Theta-E, at 05z, 28 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Separate moist axis

Axis of tropical moisture


850 mb at 00z 28 august
850 mb at 00z, 28 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Parcel trajectories into the mid atlantic region
Parcel Trajectories into the Mid-Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


200 mb height jet pv 02z 28 august
200 mb Height/Jet/PV, 02z, 28 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


200 mb height jet pv 09z 28 august
200 mb Height/Jet/PV, 09z, 28 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Sb cape analysis 06z 28 august
SB CAPE Analysis, 06z, 28 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Heavy rainfall event just off the mid atlantic coast
Heavy Rainfall Event Just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Late afternoon overnight rainfall 28 29 august
Late Afternoon/Overnight Rainfall, 28-29 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Widespread 5-10” (up to 250 mm) rainfall


Radar loop 28 29 august
Radar Loop, 28-29 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


250 mb at 00z 29 august
250 mb at 00z, 29 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Water vapor 28 29 august
Water Vapor, 28-29 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


700 mb heights 925 mb winds theta e at 03z 29 august
700 mb Heights, 925 mb Winds/Theta-E, at 03z, 29 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Tropical Moisture Axis


Sb cape analysis 00z 29 august
SB CAPE Analysis, 00z, 29 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Possible PRE


Surface analysis 00z 29 august
Surface Analysis, 00z, 29 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Possible PRE


850 mb analysis 00z on 29 august
850 mb Analysis, 00z on 29 August Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season


Parcel trajectories into the mid atlantic coastal region
Parcel Trajectories into the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Region Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Danny’s Track


Danny summary
Danny Summary Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

  • Danny fit into the AR track for potential PRE-producing systems

  • Two distinct heavy rain episodes took place on the periphery of Danny’s influence

    • Event that most resembled a PRE took place just offshore, 28-29 August

    • Heavy rain/flash flooding that occurred in the Baltimore area appeared to lack sufficient moisture contributions from Danny or jet interactions

  • Lack of a direct moisture connection with the TC, as well as a relatively cool stable air mass, seemed to protect much of the Northeastern U.S. from excessive rainfall


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