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The African Monsoon Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions 08 July 2013. Outline. Current Conditions Precipitation climatology Seven-day precipitation Weekly SST Circulation Madden Julian Oscillation

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the african monsoon week 1 and week 2 outlooks

The African MonsoonWeek-1 and Week-2 Outlooks

Update prepared by

Climate Prediction Center

National Centers for Environmental Predictions

08 July 2013

outline
Outline
  • Current Conditions
    • Precipitation climatology
    • Seven-day precipitation
    • Weekly SST
    • Circulation
    • Madden Julian Oscillation
  • NCEP GFS Guidance for week1 and week2
    • NCEP Model outlooks
    • Expert assessments
past seven day precipitation
Past Seven Day Precipitation

7 day total precipitation

7 day precipitation anomaly

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/weekly_outlook/week1.jpg

slide6
Circulation – 850 hPa

21 Jun – 27 Jun, 2013

28 Jun – 04 Jul, 2013

slide7
Circulation – 200 hPa

21 Jun – 27 Jun, 2013

28 Jun – 04 Jul, 2013

slide8
200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomaly
  • Green shade indicates areas of upper level divergence and convection or precipitation at surface. Brown contours indicate areas of upper level convergence or subsidence and suppressed precipitation at surface.
slide9
Wheeler-Hendon Index - Forecasts

UKMET

NCEP

ECMWF

Statistical

slide10
Evolution of MJO-related anomalies

Initial date: 06 July 2013

Red shade indicate areas

of suppressed convection

Blue shade indicate areas

of enhanced convection

1 - 5 days ave. Forecast

6-10 days ave. Forecast

11-15 days ave. Forecast

slide21
NCEP GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance

Ending at 00Z of 15 July 2013

  • The probability of exceedance:
  • Red shade indicates highest chance for precipitation to exceed the pre-defined precipitation threshold
  • Light green shade indicated lowest chance for precipitation to exceed the threshold
slide22
NCEP GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance

Ending at 00Z of 22 July 2013

  • The probability of exceedance:
  • Red shade indicates highest chance for precipitation to exceed the pre-defined precipitation threshold
  • Light green shade indicated lowest chance for precipitation to exceed the threshold
slide23
Experimental Week1 and Week 2 Outlook

09 Jul – 15 Jul 2013

16 Jul – 22 Jul 2013

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