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TC inner-core structure and intensification

TC inner-core structure and intensification. Robert Rogers, Paul Reasor , Hua Chen, Gopal NOAA Hurricane Research Division. NASA HS3 Science Meeting May 8, 2013. Motivation.

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TC inner-core structure and intensification

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  1. TC inner-core structure and intensification Robert Rogers, Paul Reasor, Hua Chen, Gopal NOAA Hurricane Research Division NASA HS3 Science Meeting May 8, 2013

  2. Motivation • Comparisons of composites of airborne Doppler radial passes in multiple hurricanes show statistically significant differences in inner-core structure of hurricanes that are intensifying compared with those that are remaining steady-state (Rogers et al., MWR, 2013, in press) • Intensifying (IN) – 40 radial passes in 8 different TCs • Steady-state (SS) – 53 radial passes in 6 different TCs • Composites consist of snapshots – do these structures appear in individual case studies, with observations collected serially? • Can a regional model capture inner-core structures associated with intensification? • Can a regional model distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure?

  3. Symmetric vortex structure and TC intensification Axisymmetric tangential wind (m/s) IN • Tangential wind decreases more rapidly with radius outside RMW for IN cases SS

  4. Symmetric vortex structure and TC intensification Axisymmetric tangential wind (m/s) Axisymmetric vorticity (x 10-4/s) IN IN • Tangential wind decreases more rapidly with radius outside RMW for IN cases • IN cases have a ring-like vorticity structure inside RMW • IN cases have weaker vorticity outside RMW SS SS

  5. Asymmetric vortex structure and TC intensification Shear-relative tilt (red line) between 2 and 7-km altitude IN SS 4 6 5 5 3 7 2 3 2 4 6 7 • negligible difference in tilt magnitude between IN and SS cases

  6. Convective bursts and TC intensification Number and shear-relative location of convective bursts 3 N=749 IN 2 1 y/RMW SHIPS shear 0 -1 • Bursts defined as top 1% of vertical velocity distribution at 8 km altitude (i.e., 5.5 m/s) • IN cases have more bursts, more of them inside RMW compared with SS cases -2 RMW -3 0 1 2 3 -2 -3 -1 x/RMW 3 N=342 SS 2 1 y/RMW SHIPS shear 0 -1 RMW -2 -3 0 1 2 3 -2 -3 -1 x/RMW

  7. Convective bursts and TC intensification Number and shear-relative location of convective bursts Radial distribution of convective bursts (%) and axisymmetric vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) 3 N=749 IN 2 1 y/RMW SHIPS shear 0 -1 • Bursts defined as top 1% of vertical velocity distribution at 8 km altitude (i.e., 5.5 m/s) • IN cases have more bursts, more of them inside RMW compared with SS cases -2 RMW -3 0 1 2 3 -2 -3 -1 x/RMW 3 N=342 SS 2 1 y/RMW SHIPS shear 0 -1 RMW -2 -3 0 1 2 3 -2 -3 -1 x/RMW

  8. Do structures associated with IN vs. SS appear in individual cases? Earl 2010: Intensifying P-3 flights Ophelia 2005: Steady-state P-3 flights

  9. Do structures associated with IN v. SS appear in individual cases? Doppler-derived axisymmetric structure Tangential wind (m s-1) 12 22:47Z Aug 29 11 10 9 8 7 6 Earl 5 4 • Decrease of tangential wind with radius outside RMW for Earl, not for Ophelia 3 2 1 0 2.5 3 0.5 1 1.5 2 Normalized radius 12 13:52Z Sep 9 11 10 9 8 7 Ophelia 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2.5 3 0.5 1 1.5 2 Normalized radius

  10. Do structures associated with IN v. SS appear in individual cases? Doppler-derived axisymmetric structure Tangential wind (m s-1) Vertical vorticity (x 10-4 s-1) 12 12 22:47Z Aug 29 22:47Z Aug 29 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 Earl 5 5 4 4 • Decrease of tangential wind with radius outside RMW for Earl, not for Ophelia • More of a ring-like structure inside RMW for Earl • Weaker vorticity outside RMW for Earl 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 2.5 3 2.5 3 0.5 1 1.5 2 0.5 1 1.5 2 Normalized radius Normalized radius 12 12 13:52Z Sep 9 13:52Z Sep 9 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 Ophelia 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 2.5 3 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0.5 1 1.5 2 Normalized radius Normalized radius

  11. Do structures associated with IN v. SS appear in individual cases? Number and radial distribution of convective bursts for Earl and Ophelia frequency (%) Burst counts: Earl – 193 Ophelia – 102 • 80% of convective bursts are at or inside RMW for Earl (IN) • 30% of convective bursts are at or inside RMW for Ophelia (SS) Cumulative frequency (%) Burst counts: Earl – 193 Ophelia – 102

  12. Does HWRF capture inner-core structures associated with IN? Earl 2010: HWRF 3-km run Model initialized at 18 UTC August 26 (2618 run) Intensity Track

  13. Does HWRF capture inner-core structures associated with IN? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution Streamlines and wind speed (shaded, m/s) at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white) Convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) denoted by red contour Doppler analysis centered at 23:28 UTC 28 Aug 2618 HWRF output valid 20 UTC 28 Aug km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km • Direction of 2-8 km vortex displacement similar between Doppler and HWRF • Burst area located inside RMW southeast of low-level center, downshear left

  14. Does HWRF capture inner-core structures associated with IN? Axisymmetric structure Tangential wind (m s-1) • tangential wind at eyewall similar between HWRF and Doppler, decay outside eyewall generally similar but more decay in HWRF Doppler 12 12 RMW=42 km RMW=35 km 12:25Z Aug 30 12Z Aug 30 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 height (km) height (km) 7 7 6 6 5 5 HWRF 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 2.5 3 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0.5 1 1.5 2 Normalized radius Normalized radius

  15. Does HWRF capture inner-core structures associated with IN? Axisymmetric structure Vertical vorticity (x 10-4 s-1) Tangential wind (m s-1) • tangential wind at eyewall similar between HWRF and Doppler, decay outside eyewall generally similar but more decay in HWRF • Indication of ring-like structure in HWRF, but much less pronounced -- resolution limitations? • Outer core vorticty decay comparable between HWRF and Doppler. Doppler 12 12 RMW=42 km RMW=35 km 12:25Z Aug 30 12Z Aug 30 12 12 RMW=42 km 12:25Z Aug 30 RMW=35 km 12Z Aug 30 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 height (km) height (km) height (km) height (km) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 HWRF 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 2.5 3 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 0 2.5 3 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0.5 1 1.5 2 Normalized radius Normalized radius Normalized radius Normalized radius

  16. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Two HWRF runs: initialized at 12 UTC (Exp. 2612) and 18 UTC August 26 (Exp. 2618) Storm tracks Intensity Exp. 2618 max wind (kt) bifurcation period Exp. 2612 • bifurcation period in intensity trace – between 00 UTC Aug 30 and 00 UTC Aug 31 • tracks similar between two runs

  17. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  18. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  19. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  20. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  21. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  22. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  23. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  24. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  25. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  26. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  27. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  28. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  29. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  30. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  31. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  32. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  33. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  34. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  35. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure during bifurcation period Streamlines at 2 km (black) and 8 km (white); vorticity (shaded, x 10-4 s-1) at 2 km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) 850-200 hPa env shear (m/s) km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show 2-8 km vortex displacement < 20 km during bifurcation period, little difference • Vortex tilts downshear, between left and right of shear vector • Exp. 2618 has slightly higher eyewall vorticity; Exp. 2612 has band of higher vorticity at end outside core

  36. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Asymmetric vortex structure 850-200 hPa shear (m/s) and 2-8 km tilt magnitude (km) bifurcation period RI onset • shear marginally (2 m/s) higher in 2612 run • both runs show large vortex displacement prior and at RI onset, becomes nearly aligned several hours after RI onset • vortex displacement small during bifurcation period for both runs, slightly smaller for 2618 run

  37. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  38. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  39. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  40. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  41. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  42. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  43. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  44. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  45. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  46. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  47. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  48. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  49. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

  50. Can HWRF distinguish between IN and SS cases based on inner-core structure? Vortex structure and convective burst distribution during bifurcation period Wind speed (shaded, m s-1) at 2 km and convective burst locations (top 1% of w distribution) Burst times Burst times t t t-10 min t-1 h t-20 min t-30 min t-40 min km km Exp 2618 Exp 2612 km km Exp. 2618 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug Exp. 2612 HWRF output valid 05-08 UTC 30 Aug • Both runs show convective bursts near, within eyewall at various times during bifurcation period • Bursts located between downshear right and downshear left • Exp. 2618 shows persistent burst in downshear region inside RMW, Exp. 2612 has transient activity • RI occurrence tied to distribution of moist convection – limited predictability? (Zhang and Tao 2013)

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