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Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera

Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina – LA 29. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto

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Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera

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  1. Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina – LA 29 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto Fac.de Agronomía y Vet.- Agrometeorología | Fac. Ciencias Económicas - Dpto.Economía Session III: Observed Climate Variability Climate Extreme Events and Climate Variability Cecilia Conde, Carlos Gay, Marta Vinocur, Roberto Seiler, Francisco Estrada First Latin American and the Caribbean Regional Workshop of AIACC Projects 27-30 May, 2003 , San José –Costa Rica

  2. Climate Extreme Events and Climate Variability • Goal: • To study regional climatic trends and variabilility • To identify the types of climatic events that are relevant to agricultural production in the study regions • To develop the indices of climate extremes that best reflect observed agricultural impacts • Activities • Analyze tendencies in climate variability • Relationship of ENSO to local climatic variability and events • Define “risk spaces” and relate them to impact of extreme events

  3. Argentina: Study sites

  4. Veracruz aporta el 28% de la producción de café nacional. • La región centro de Veracruz produce más del 90% de la producción de café. 96.238054 W 20.351354 N • Los municipios de Coatepec, Xico y Hutusco se escogieron para los estudios de caso. 97.421615 W 18.272503 N Study Area in Veracruz-Mexico • El café se produce en 842 comunidades de 82 municipios.

  5. Central Region of Veracruz Temperature: * + 1.4 °C/95 years Precipitation: * + 0.8 mm/day/ 95 years

  6. Rainfall Mean values: 1961-1990 December

  7. Precipitation Anomalies (1961-1990vs 1931-1960) January

  8. Mean Temperature Anomalies (1961-1990vs 1931-1960) July

  9. El Niño and Mexico Central Region Veracruz IN MEXICO Winter • More Pcp • Lower T Summer • Less Pcp • Higher T

  10. EL Niño and the Central Region of Veracruz • El Niño: less severe mid – summer drought canícula (July - August). • Lower Pcp in Spring (March – May). (“The flower becomes leaf” *). • Increase in Temperature: Increase in Broca (pests)*. * From regional experts and farmers

  11. Extreme Events Tmax +, Tmin + • Intra-annual extreme temperature range (difference between the highest temperatureand the lowest value of the same calendar year) • Changes in Frequency, Intensity, Duration? Tmax +, Tmin - M.A. Hernández, UV

  12. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al, 1993,1995) Isla Verde-Córdoba

  13. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al, 1993,1995) Laboulaye

  14. Veracruz Study Case (Teocelo)Risk Space Annual anomalies Tmin vs Pcp N = El Niño years Na = La Niña years 60s &70s 80&90s Tmin=14.3; pcp=2046.9 mm M. Hulme y O. Brown (1998)

  15. Veracruz Study Case (Teocelo)Risk Space (cont.) Annual anomalies Tmax vs Pcp N = El Niño years Na = La Niña years Tmax=24.4°C; pcp=2046.9 mm M. Hulme y O. Brown (1998)

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