Collaborative Modeling Efforts Between the U.S. and Mexican Governments

1. Collaborative Modeling Efforts Between the U.S. and Mexican Governments Pablo Sherwell, Mexican Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fishing, and Food Steven Zahniser, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Mary Burfisher, U.S. Naval Academy, Department of Economics Presentation to the North American Agrifood Market Integration Consortium (NAAMIC) Workshop, Austin, Texas, May 23, 2008

2. The Value of Economic Modeling • Economic models provide valuable insights into the possible impacts of contemplated policy changes and the actual effects of previous policy changes. • Access to models and the quality of in-house modeling vary within and across national governments --Function of available resources and researchers’ familiarity with subject matter --Often dependent on the skills and interests of a few • Intergovernmental collaboration as a way to foster mutual capacity building

3. Two Examples of Intergovernmental Modeling Collaboration from the U.S.-Mexican Experience Adaptation of Mexico Model Used in USDA Agricultural Projections Mexico-Focused Modeling Based on Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)

4. Mexico Baseline Component • Over the past 3 years, agricultural specialists in the Mexican Government have developed a set of partial equilibrium models of their country’s major agricultural sectors • The original foundation of these models is the Mexico model (maintained and improved by James Hansen of ERS) that is used in the USDA Agricultural Projections

5. Mexico Baseline Model: Timeline • 2000: Visit to Washington by staff member from FIRA (Fideicomisos Instituidos en Relación con Agricultura) • 2005: Training of FIRA staff in baseline model, extension of Mexico Model to new commodities; ERS staff visit Mexico to improve their understanding of country’s corn sector • 2007: Visit to Washington by SAGARPA staff, incorporation of Mexico’s official model, extension to new commodities, use in formal publications

6. Mexico Baseline Model: The Evolution Original Model SAGARPA´s First approach • Livestock: (3 sectors) • Pork, Beef, and Poultry • Crops: (11 sectors) • Corn , Wheat, Rice • Barley, Sorghum, • Soybean, Rape seed, Groundnuts, • Sunflowers • Cotton • Fruits, Vegetable Consumption • Data • Segregate markets • White corn • Yellow corn • Integrate new commodities • Fruits and vegetables • Tomatoes

7. Mexico Baseline Model: Data Main Data Adjustments • Elasticities • Consumer price elasticities • Consumer income elasticities • Producers supply response elasticities • Macroeconomic variables • Economic growth • Exchange rate • Oil prices (?????) • Prices (Consumer and Producer prices) • Per capita consumption • Inventories

8. Mexico Baseline Model: Data Original Model SAGARPA´s Implementation • Macroeconomic • World Bank • International Prices • FAO and USDA • Domestic Prices • PS&D • Domestic Variables • PS&D • Macroeconomic • World Bank • Banco de México • INEGI • CONAPO • International Prices • FAO and USDA • Domestic Prices • SIAP • Secretaría de Economía • Domestic Variables • SIAP • INEGI

9. Mexico Baseline Model: White Corn • Area harvested will surpass 7 million hectares in 2008. • Surplus of 1 million tons is expected for 2008. Similar trend will continue over the long term. • White corn prices are highly correlated with yellow prices.

10. Mexico Baseline Model: Yellow Corn • Area harvested may reach 450,000 hectares in 2008. Ethanol prices will drive production. • Demand and production will grow at average rates of 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively. • Prices will keep growing until 2010.

11. Mexico Baseline Model: Cotton • Area harvested is expected to diminish in the long run. • Demand is expected to decline due to the slow growth of the textile sector. • Domestic prices will be influenced by the international price.

12. Mexico Baseline Model: Meat • Beef production may reach 2 million tons in 2008. • Pork production will expand 1.1% annually, and demand will increase almost 2% annually. • Poultry production and demand will grow at a considerable rate of 3%.

13. Mexico Baseline Model: Next steps • Improve policy components • Develop stochastic components • State level • New commodities • Sugar cane • Fisheries • Link to a North American component

14. Mexico-Focused GTAP Modeling Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model Zahniser and Burfisher (2006) Evaluated impact of full implementation of NAFTA’s provisions on production and trade SAGARPA/ASERCA staff provided Mexican tariff data and evaluated the model’s structure Results circulated within U.S. and Mexican Governments and presented at academic conferences Ongoing research: Evaluate NAFTA’s implementation in the current context of higher commodity prices

15. NAFTA with Higher Commodity Prices Uses GTAP data within the standard IFPRI model, as modified by McDonald, et al. (2006), to allow for substitution among intermediate inputs Two regions: Mexico and Rest of World Twenty-one (21) sectors, 16 of which are agricultural, including white and yellow corn Two scenarios: Updated base scenario: GTAP database (2001) updated with 2008 tariff levels Alternative scenario: Updated base scenario shocked with an exogenous price increase

16. Mexico: An Open Economy

17. Scenario of Higher Commodity Prices Calculated using projections for MY 2009/10 from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017 and historical data for MY 2000/01 (or calendar years 2010 versus 2001)

18. Domestic output: Greater commodity production, less manufacturing production

19. Imports: Changes correspond to prices

20. Exports: Changes also correspond to prices

21. Increased household consumption, higher wages for unskilled labor

22. Collaborative Modeling: Conclusions • Collaborative modeling between the U.S. and Mexican Governments has provided valuable insights about many aspects of the NAFTA agrifood sector: --Last step of NAFTA trade liberalization --Rise in commodity prices --Possible future course of the Mexican economy • An approach that harnesses synergies --Expanded pool of knowledge, skills, and abilities --Mutual capacity building --Opportunity to disseminate research more widely