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Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. Presentation prepared for the National Conference of Public Employees Retirement Systems Miami Beach, FL May 24, 2011. The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal Reserve System.

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Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

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  1. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Presentation prepared for the National Conference of Public Employees Retirement Systems Miami Beach, FL May 24, 2011 The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal Reserve System

  2. What Mr. Bernanke said about monetary policy Extended period is conditioned on resource slack, on subdued inflation, and on stable inflation expectations.

  3. What Mr. Bernanke said about monetary policy Extended period is conditioned on resource slack, on subdued inflation, and on stable inflation expectations.

  4. The unemployment rate rose in April, and the reason was was not related to rising labor force participation

  5. Payrolls have expanded by about 170 thousand jobs per month since October –- 233k over past 3 months

  6. Long-term unemployment fell in April, but short-term unemployment ticked up

  7. The FOMC Consensus Forecasts 201120122013Long Run Unemployment 8.4—8.7 7.6—7.9 6.8—7.2 5.2-5.6 Rate

  8. The FOMC Consensus Forecasts 201120122013Long Run Unemployment 8.4—8.7 7.6—7.9 6.8—7.2 5.2-5.6 Rate GDP Growth 3.1—3.3 3.5—4.2 3.5—4.3 2.5-2.8 Rate

  9. Inflation-adjusted GDP has only just returned to it’s pre-recession level – likely leaving output well below its “potential”

  10. The rebound in the manufacturing sector has been particularly strong – but output is still below pre-recession levels

  11. What Mr. Bernanke said about monetary policy Extended period is conditioned on resource slack, on subdued inflation, and on stable inflation expectations.

  12. Core retail price measures are firming Headline: Last 5 months: 5% Earlier 5 months: 1.8% Core CPI measure Last 5 monthsEarlier 5 months Core CPI 1.7 0.8 Median CPI 1.7 0.9 Trimmed mean CPI 2.4 0.9 Sticky-price CPI 1.8 0.9 Sticky CPI less shelter 2.1 1.0

  13. The FOMC Consensus Forecasts 201120122013Long Run Unemployment 8.4—8.7 7.6—7.9 6.8—7.2 5.2-5.6 Rate GDP Growth 3.1—3.3 3.5—4.2 3.5—4.3 2.5-2.8 Rate PCE 2.1—2.8 1.2—2.0 1.4—2.0 1.7-2.0 Inflation

  14. What Mr. Bernanke said about monetary policy Extended period is conditioned on resource slack, on subdued inflation, and on stable inflation expectations.

  15. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are within historical norms, but have drifted up Sources: Federal Reserve Board and Haver Analytics

  16. What Mr. Bernanke said about monetary policy Whence once those conditions are violated or we move away from those conditions, that’s the time we need to begin to tighten.

  17. Residential real estate remains a significant risk factor for the recovery S&P Case-Shiller20-metro compositeJanuary 2000 = 100 U.S. CoreLogic Residential(excluding distressed properties) January 2000 = 100 FHFA U.S. Purchase-Only Home PriceJanuary 1991 = 100

  18. Housing prices look even weaker when distressed sales are included Note: Distressed Sale Share is calculated using shadow inventory data along with the speed at which that inventory transitions from delinquent to foreclosure to sale.

  19. The supply of distressed properties is still quite elevated

  20. But… Price-rent ratios are near their pre-recession levels Source : S&P, Fiserve, MacroMarkets LLC; Bureau of Labor Statistics

  21. Energy events have been consistently associated with economic downturns over the post-war period Source(s): Wall Street Journal, Haver Analytics, James Hamilton, National Bureau of Economic Research

  22. The first quarter came in much weaker than anticipated Source : Macroeconomic Advisers

  23. The second quarter forecasts have now begun to drift downward Source : Macroeconomic Advisers

  24. What Mr. Bernanke said about monetary policy Extended period suggests it would be a couple of meetings before action, but unfortunately… we don’t know with certainty how quickly response will be required…

  25. What Mr. Bernanke said about monetary policy … therefore, we will do our best to communicate changes in our view…

  26. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

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