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Bulgarian Convergence: Balancing Nominal and Real Growth Challenges

Explore the conditions and challenges of achieving convergence in Bulgaria from nominal to real growth perspectives within the EU framework. Delve into the macro and monetary criteria, growth differentials, competitiveness policies, and the crucial role of absorption capacity in enhancing competitiveness. Learn about the Bulgarian situation regarding EU funding, institutional capacity, project prioritization, and the importance of quick restructuring and diversification for sustainable economic growth.

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Bulgarian Convergence: Balancing Nominal and Real Growth Challenges

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  1. Erasmus University Rotterdam Conditions for Convergence; From nominal to real and back

  2. Contents • Objectives • Nominal convergence • Real convergence • Policy challenges • Competitiveness • Bulgarian situation • Conclusions

  3. Nominal convergence • Macro and monetary conditions set by EU for participation in EMU; • Maastricht criteria • Stability and Growth Pact • Conditions set by applicant country • Balance of cost and benefits • Constraining growth or not?

  4. Growth differences and growth determinants • In past considerable differences between EU countries • Some have used instrument of exchange rate • Now very limited influence of international and national macro factors • European Commission estimates that 75% of growth differences in euro-zone is due to structural factors

  5. Growth Differentials (Standard Deviations)

  6. Real convergence • Main objectiveof • National and EU policy • Defined as convergence of wealth levels; (not of growth rates) • Key elements: • Differentiated growth of productivity; • Accelerated change in sectoral structure • Enhanced conditions for competitiveness

  7. Past performance of EU • Long term convergence of wealth levels • Catching up of the poor members • Recent stop of trend • Determining factors from EU: • Market access; • Structural Funds • Institutional change

  8. Real convergence in the long term

  9. Competitiveness: Challenge for policy makers • Whole list of points to take care of (see competitiveness tree) • For each of them policy instruments have been developed and tested • Question remains: what works, why and and where (OMS/NMS)? • Risk of bewildering and opting for fashion solutions

  10. Enhancing Competitiveness in practice • Analysis made of programmes of OMS (Obj1), NMS and CANS • Show very little differences in objectives • All include Lisbon agenda • Few real priorities: keep options open • Tendency to go for hard infrastructure • Underrating of capacity building

  11. Public efforts • Each aspect demands considerable efforts of the public sector • Both important investment and important annual outlays • These are confronted with limited resources (NAT + EU) • So harsh choices to be made with or without EMU membership

  12. A few lessons • Learn from bad and best practices of others • Orient your budget to competitiveness oriented outlays and not on redistribution • Within competitiveness make choices and set priorities • In line with national and local potentials

  13. Bulgarian situation • Trying to come to grips with challenges • EU money is coming in large amounts • On conditions: e.g. • Co-financing safeguarded • Compliance with rules of the game • Big risk: Under-utilization due to non compliance

  14. Enhancement of absorption capacity is essential • Definition of projects • Prioritization of projects • Consistency of programme • Institutional set-up and staffing • Administrative capacity • Capacity of beneficiaries and stakeholders to join in

  15. Conclusions • Nominal convergence is easier with a more resilient economy • To that end quick restructuring and diversification is needed • Competitiveness is key to change and hence to real convergence • Absorption capacity is key to enhancement of competitiveness

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