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Advanced Hurricane Prediction A plan for research and development. Naomi Surgi February, 2005. Requirements Process. Societal Impacts: More people living along coastal areas – takes longer to evacuate Evacuations are costly: ~$1M per mile of coastline evacuated

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slide1
Advanced Hurricane Prediction

A plan for research and development

Naomi Surgi

February, 2005

requirements process
Requirements Process

Societal Impacts:

  • More people living along coastal areas – takes longer to evacuate
  • Evacuations are costly: ~$1M per mile of coastline evacuated
  • Evacuation numbers depend on hurricane size and intensity
  • More hurricane related fatalities now due to inland flooding
stakeholder requirements
Stakeholder Requirements
  • Improved track forecast skill – where and when?
    • Extend track forecasts out to 5 days
  • Improved hurricane intensity forecasts
    • intensity at landfall – how strong?
    • onset of gale force winds at coastline (structure) – how big & when?
  • Skillful heavy rainfall forecasts out to 3 days in advance
slide4
Operational TC Forecast Issues:
  • Continued advancement of TC track forecasts
  • Improved TC intensity prediction (genesis and rapid intensification)
  • Improved prediction of TC surface wind distribution (structure)
  • Improved rainfall forecasts
  • TC waves, storm surge
slide5
TPC Atlantic 72-hr Track Forecast Errors

With the exception of “erratically” moving storms, while hurricane track prediction has shown remarkable progress, skill in predicting intensity/ structure changes is still poor. It is expected that high resolution, advanced NWP modeling systems may continue to improve track as well as intensity, structure predictions. Hurricane WRF is the next step towards this goal.

slide8
How NOAA Improved Track Forecasts

Three components of modeling system:

  • HIGH QUALITY OBSERVATIONS(large scale environment surrounding hurricane, e.g. satellite, aircraft)
  • MADE BETTER USE OF OBSERVATIONS IN HURRICANE MODELS (advances in data assimilation)
  • IMPROVED HURRICANE MODELS(improved numerical techniques and representation of physical processes)
slide9
Advanced Data Platforms for Hurricanes
  • Environment: (Winds, Moisture, Temperature) – to define steering currents
    • Satellite: Advanced Satellite Instruments
      • (AMSU, GOES, NPOESS etc.)
    • In-situ: Aircraft (dropsondes)
slide11
Jung and

Zapotocny

JCSDA

Funded by

NPOESS IPO

Satellite data

~ 10-15% impact

slide13
Impact Of Dropsondes On NCEP Global Model Track Forecasts

Note: Improved skill at all forecast times in 2002 and 2003

slide15
Charley deepened

From 964 mb to 941 mb

in 4 h 35 min near

landfall – NIGHTMARE!

slide16
Science Issues to address Intensity/Structure
  • ENVIRONMENTAL FORCING
    • “good vs. bad” trough interactions
    • SST changes (including ocean subsurface)
  • CONVECTIVE SCALE PROCESSES
    • total rainfall – organization of convection, eyewall vs. Stratiform
  • MICROPHYSICS– LIQUID VS. ICE
  • INNER CORE REGION
    • scale interaction – feedback between vortex dynamics, convective physics and environment
    • triggering and adjustment processes – eyewall replacement cycles, eyewall mixing
slide17
Science Issues – con’t
  • AIR SEA INTERACTION: OCEANIC/ATMOSPHERE BOUNDARY LAYER)
    • Air sea fluxes under disturbed conditions (sea spray)
    • Turbulence and subgrid scale mixing
    • Coupled atm/ocean model; coupled wind-wave model
  • UPPER OCEAN PROCESSES
    • SST changes – depth of warm layer (accounts for turbulent mixing, horizontal advection) e.g. Gulf Stream and loop currents, warm core eddies, cold wakes
  • LAND SURFACE PROCESSES
    • PBL fluxes – storm structure -- coupling to hydrologicprocesses
slide18
To advance TRACK forecasts AND improve INTENSITY, STRUCTURE and RAIN Forecasts:
  • Need high quality hurricane core* and environmental observations
  • Need advanced data assimilation techniques for environment and hurricane core
  • Need advanced modeling system
  • Need a “disciplined” approach for transition from research to operations, e.g. JHT, JCSDA

* critical observations for intensity/structure and rain problem

slide19
Advanced Observation Platforms for Hurricanes
  • Environment (Winds, Moisture, Temp.)
    • In-situ: G-IV, UAV’s, Driftsondes
    • Satellite: ADVANCED MICROWAVE INSTRUMENTS
  • Hurricane Core (Winds from 12 km to surface)
    • G-IV, WP-3D airborne Doppler radars
    • 88-D Level II data
  • UpperOcean (SST’s, wave height, mixed layer info)
    • AXBTs, Altimeter, ARGOS, Current Meter, Buoys
slide20
Required Data Assimilation Development
  • Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques
    • Environmental flow – in progress (some success)
    • Hurricane Interior - substantial R&D necessary*
    • Ocean data assimilation – new effort (GODAS)
  • * EMC is developing scale-dependent covariances
slide21
Hurricane WRF (HWRF) Prediction System
  • Community based next generation hurricane prediction system
  • Will replace the GFDL in 2007
  • Coupled air-sea-land prediction system
  • Advanced data assimilation for hurricane vortex
  • Advanced physics for high resolution
  • Land surface coupled to hydrology/inundation
  • Nested wave prediction
  • Coupling to dynamic storm surge (in planning)
slide22
TRANSITIONING TO HURRICANE WRF

020304 05 06 07

Mesoscale Data Assimilation for Hurricane Core

GFDL frozen

HWRF T&E

Continue upgrades

GFDL

Begin Physics Upgrades

HWRF Operational

Transition to HWRF

MM5

HWRF

T&E

Preliminary Test HWRF physics

HWRF

Begin R&D

slide23
Pre-Implementation Strategy for HWRF
  • INCREASE RESOLUTION
  • UPGRADE GFDL PHYSICS WITH GFS PHYSICS
  • IMPLEMENT MICROPHYSICS, SFC. PHYSICS
  • PUT PHYSICS IN WRF FRAMEWORK
  • MIGRATE ALL PHYSICS TO NMM, e.g. HWRF
  • CARRY OUT TEST & EVALUATION ON UPGRADED GFDL SYSTEM (GFDL FROZEN ’05-06)
  • PERFORM EXTENSIVE COMPARISONS BETWEEN GFDL AND HWRF FOR MULTIPLE SEASONS AND STORMS
slide24
DEVELOPMENT OF THE HWRF SYSTEM
  • Movable, nested grid (configuration, domain)
  • Advancement of physics (wheel of pain)
  • Initialization (development of DA for hurricane vortex) (LONG TERM EFFORT)
  • Coupling to HYCOM
  • Coupling to WAVEWATCH III (+ multi-scale model)
  • Coupling to LSM
  • Development/Upgrade of hurricane verification system (PPT, STRUCTURE)
  • Coupling to storm surge-wave coupled model (planning stage)
  • HWRF ensembles
the physics wheel of pain
“THE PHYSICS WHEEL OF PAIN”

Compliments of Dr. Jaiyu Zhou (NOAA/OST)

Direct Physical

Interaction of Clouds

  • - Hydrometeor type (phase)
  • - Cloud optical properties
  • - Cloud overlap (merging Cu, grid-scale cloudiness)
  • - Cloud fractions
  • - Precipitation
  • - Sfc energy fluxes
  • 4. - Convection, PBL evolution, precipitation

Radiation

Cu Scheme

Sfc & PBL

Grid Scale Microphysics

slide26
Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Coupled Models

NCEP

Atmosphere and Ocean

NOS

land and coastal waters

HWRF

NOAH LSM

runoff

High resolution

Coastal, Bay &

Estuarine

hydrodynamic model

surge

inundation

fluxes

Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer

radiative

fluxes

other fluxes

winds

air temp.

elevations

currents

3D salinities

temperatures

SST

currents

HYCOM

3D ocean circulation

model

wave

spectra

WAVEWATCH III

Spectral wave model

wave fluxes

hycom expt hurricane isabel
HYCOM Expt – Hurricane Isabel
  • MODEL:
    • HYCOM Mercator North Atlantic 1/12 degrees (∆x ≈ 7 km).
    • 26 vertical coordinates.
    • Vertical viscosity and mixing: GISS.
  • FORCING: 6-h NCEP (GFS analysis).
  • INITIAL CONDITIONS: from near-real time North Atlantic system (NRL & RSMAS) (O.M. Smedstad).
  • PERIOD: Sept. 3-30, 2003
hurricane frances impact of coupling
Hurricane Frances – impact of coupling

Blue- GFDL operational coupled model

Red- GFDL uncoupled model

the future
The Future

Deep ocean model resolution dictated by GFS model

Higher coastal model resolution dictated by model economy

Highest model resolution in areas of special interest

Hurricane nests moving with storm(s) like GFDL and HWRF

slide34
Technology Infusion

Joint Hurricane Testbed

Mission Statement:

The mission of the JHT is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, observational and model advances into improved tropical cyclone analyses and prediction at operational hurricane forecast centers.

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