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Analytics: Statistics for Fundraisers May 15, 2013. The key to maximizing value and sustained growth is getting the right information to the right people at the right time. Analytics . What We Will Cover. Data Sources Types of Analytics Campaign Analytics Forecasting Analytics

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Presentation Transcript
analytics
The key to maximizing value and sustained growth is getting the right information to the right people at the right timeAnalytics
what we will cover
What We Will Cover
  • Data Sources
  • Types of Analytics
  • Campaign Analytics
  • Forecasting Analytics
  • Monitoring Outcomes
data sources
Old Model

New Model – need a plan to integrate

DATA SOURCES
sources the old model
Sources: The Old Model

TM

Web Sites

Donor/

Customer

Events/Major Gifts

Direct Mail

types of analytics
Balancing Analytical Needs

Description of Types of Analytics

TYPES of ANALYTICS
analytics balancing lcls
Analytics – Balancing LCLS
  • There are basically 4 types of data that need to constantly be balanced in decision making –each has different value
    • L – Lagging Benchmarking
    • C – Current Campaign Reports/Testing
    • L – Leading Forecasting/Budgeting
    • S – Strategic Scenario Building/Multi-Year Growth
analytics a few types
Analytics – a Few Types
  • Campaign Analytics
    • Performance Reports
    • Package Testing Results
  • Forecasting Analytics
    • Budget Forecasting
    • Cash Flow Forecasting
analytics a few types1
Analytics – a Few Types
  • Digital Media Analytics
    • Web Site Traffic Analysis
    • Paid Advertising ROI
  • Communication Analytics
    • Segmentation Analytics
    • Predictive Analytics
analytics a few types2
Analytics – a Few Types
  • Performance Indicator Reports
    • Trend Analysis (historic donor value)
    • Multi-Year Forecasting (future donor value)
performance reports
Performance Reports
  • Key metrics help determine campaign success
    • What are they?
    • How are they calculated?
    • Why is it important? Why may it be limiting?
  • Which is most important when?
    • It depends on your goals!
    • It depends on the program!
response rate
Response Rate
  • What?
    • The percentage of the quantity mailed that responded
  • How?
    • (# of Gifts/Quantity)*1000
  • Why important?
    • Indicator of package success. More gifts the better!
  • Why limiting?
    • Does not factor in revenue, size makes a difference.
average gift
Average Gift
  • What?
    • The average size of the contribution
  • How?
    • Gross Income/# of Gifts
  • Why important?
    • The higher the gift, the more valuable the donor
  • Why limiting?
    • Does not factor in response, large gifts can skew performance
gross m
Gross/M
  • What?
    • Gross income per thousand pieces mailed
  • How?
    • (Gross Income/Quantity Mailed) * 1000
  • Why important?
    • The more revenue per piece, the better
  • Why limiting?
    • Does not factor in cost
cost m
Cost/M
  • What?
    • Cost per thousand pieces mailed
  • How?
    • (Total Cost/Quantity Mailed) * 1000
  • Why important?
    • Tracks costs
  • Why limiting?
    • Test vs. rollout pricing need to be considered
investment donor cta
Investment/Donor (CTA)
  • What?
    • Net Investment to acquire a new donor
  • How?
    • Net income/# of Gifts
  • Why important?
    • Factors in response AND revenue AND cost
  • Why limiting?
    • Only used in prospecting, but it’s a key indicator!
net m
Net/M
  • What?
    • Net income per thousand pieces mailed
  • How?
    • Gross/M – Cost/M
    • (Net Income/Quantity Mailed) * 1000
  • Why important?
    • Factors in gross and cost, measures net productivity
  • Why limiting?
    • Not really applicable in prospecting when there is traditionally no net revenue
which variable is most important when it depends but general rule of thumb is
Which variable is most important when? It depends, but general rule of thumb is …
  • Acquisition – Investment/Donor (CTA)
  • Appeals – Net/M
  • Renewals – Response Rate
  • Upgrades – Average Gift
package testing why
Package Testing – Why?
  • Build on what’s working, change what isn’t
    • Tweak Tests, New Package
  • Move the needle on a specific variable based on program goals
    • Response rate, Average gift, Net (etc.)
  • Stay one step ahead of your peers!
package testing when
Package Testing – When?
  • As often as possible!
    • Try and test at least one variable in every mailing
  • Tests aren’t limited to creative/design
    • RFM segment testing in appeals
    • List testing in prospecting (80/20 rule)
package testing how
Package Testing – How?
  • Ensure there is enough quantity (and gifts) to be statistically significant
  • Test only one variable at a time
  • Make sure segments are equally distributed
  • Ensure you wait long enough to make a conclusion!
package testing for statisticians
Package Testing – For Statisticians
  • Confidence Intervals
  • Bell Curves
  • Z Score
  • P Value
bell curve
Bell Curve

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

Lower

Upper

Actual

bell curves intersecting
Bell Curves Intersecting

Package A

Package B

Overlap?

Upper (A)

Lower (A)

Upper (A)

Lower (B)

package testing for everyone else
Package Testing – For Everyone Else
  • 9 times out of 10 the result will be the same
  • Lower and Upper Bounds
  • Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios
  • Overlap
  • Which metrics to consider depend on goals of the test
forecasting analytics
Budget Forecasting

Cash flow Forecasting

Multi-year Forecasting

FORECASTING ANALYTICS
budget analysis
Budget Analysis
  • Question: “Based on where I am today in my fiscal year cash flow and how campaigns have been performing, where am I going to end the fiscal year.”
  • Approach: Combining current cash flow to date along with a forecast of “active” campaigns gives an excellent real-time approximation of total fiscal year revenue.
budget analysis tools
Budget Analysis: Tools
  • Campaign Budgets: All TM, DM, Web, etc. budgets with expected outcomes.
  • Predictive Flow: using different tools for each channel flow out budget (i.e., DM would use a standard days out).
  • Estimation of Carry In/Carry Out: Based on timing of prior FY campaigns how much revenue will be “carried into” this FY. Same for current FY Campaigns.
forecast analysis
Forecast Analysis

Question: “Recent performance metrics are soft compared to last year, how is recent performance going to affect my fiscal year budget.”

Approach: “Look at recent cash flow trends based on which campaigns are active and use tools to forecast the remaining months.”

forecast analysis tools
Forecast Analysis: Tools
  • Historical performance by day.
  • Time-series analysis to utilize recent trends along with historical performance to predict outcome.
  • Create several forecasts based on assumptions of environment changes.
multi year forecasting
Multi-Year Forecasting
  • Question: “Determine the baseline scenario of business models based on declining performance.”
    • Analyze what investment levels are realistic given current trends in each business model
  • Approach: “Establish benchmarks for growth in each program areas including investment levels, return on investment targets, donor return rates, retention targets, donor conversion, and upgrading targets, etc.”
    • Identify the donor segments of greatest value to guide investment decisions.
multi year forecasting tools
Multi-Year Forecasting - Tools
  • Segment the file into the investment channels (i.e., DM acquisition, Web Ads, F2F, etc.)
  • Estimate performance of the new acquisition channels based on the investment.
  • Use historical activation, retention and upgrading measures to predict future donor value.
  • Create scenarios based on modifications of investments or changes in the base file.
thank you
Thank you!

Jim Emlet

Principal

202-452-9732

jemlet@integral-dc.com

www.integral-dc.com

Bryan Evangelista

Account Supervisor

202-296-9660

bevangelista@lautmandc.com

www.lautmandc.com