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Climate Change: Managing the Shifting Environmental Health Risks

Climate Change: Managing the Shifting Environmental Health Risks. Changing hazards, changing risks, and the need for robust risk management. Jeremy Hess, MD, MPH. Overview. Climate change What’s happening and why What health impacts we’ll see Risks from environmental hazards

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Climate Change: Managing the Shifting Environmental Health Risks

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  1. Climate Change: Managing the Shifting Environmental Health Risks Changing hazards, changing risks, and the need for robust risk management Jeremy Hess, MD, MPH

  2. Overview • Climate change • What’s happening and why • What health impacts we’ll see • Risks from environmental hazards • A conceptual framework for risk • How climate change is changing the risk landscape • Risk management • Some approaches • Implications for public health

  3. A brief primer Climate Change

  4. Climate Change Thanks to Daniel Rochberg for some slides

  5. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts

  6. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts

  7. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts http://www.pewclimate.org/facts-and-figures/international/historical

  8. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts CO2 Concentrations over the past 800,000 years (dark blue line) 2012 Peak Concentration: 396 ppm

  9. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/big-idea/05/carbon-bath

  10. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts

  11. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts The Copenhagen Diagnosis, available here.

  12. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts

  13. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts Historical and Projected Global Temperatures(degrees C; 2000 = 0) IPCC

  14. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts “Climate change refers to any distinct change in measures of climate lasting for a long period of time. In other words, ‘climate change’ means major changes in temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind patterns lasting for decades or longer.” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Frequently Asked Questions about Global Warming and Climate Change Climate change http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/downloads/Climate_Basics.pdf

  15. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts

  16. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts

  17. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts

  18. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts “There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration.” IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Summary for Policymakers, p. 11 http://www.cbc.ca/gfx/images/news/photos/2009/07/06/drought-china-cp-w-6244601.jpg

  19. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=5542 Maldives: 1,192 islands 330,000 people average elevation ~1 meter IPCC sea level rise projections by 2100: 18-59 cm IPCC 4th Assessment Report, Synthesis Report

  20. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts http://www.history.com/photos/heat-waves/photo2 “France's summer heatwavekilled a total of 14,800 people, according to official figures released on Thursday.” BBC News, September 25, 2003 “It is very likelythat the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over most land areas.” IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Summary for Policymakers, p. 11

  21. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts “It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe.” IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Summary for Policymakers, p. 11 photo by Paula Bronstein, Getty Images http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/08/photogalleries/100826-pakistan-flooding-millions-people-pictures/#/pakistan-flooding-man-water_25084_600x450.jpg

  22. Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts Average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely to increase, although increases may not occur in all ocean basins. IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Summary for Policymakers, p. 11 http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/470571main_isabel_lg.jpg It is likelythat the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged. IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Summary for Policymakers, p. 11

  23. The components of risk and how they are shifting Environmental hazard risk

  24. Basic Risk Formula in CC Community Probability x Consequence = Risk

  25. Some Climate Change Risks Lenton, T. M. (2011). Early warning of climate tipping points. Nature Climate Change. 1: 201-209.

  26. Components of Risk Equations Considerations What is the hazard? Who is most vulnerable? Little guidance Based on exposure and susceptibility: Elderly Children Workers What drives adaptive capacity for vulnerable populations? How might early warnings facilitate protective responses and increase resilience? • Risk = p(H) x impact or cost • Risk = p(H) x V/Res, where • pH = Hazard probability • V = Vulnerability, where • V = p(E) x (S) • pE = Exposure probability • S = Susceptibility • Res = Resilience • Res ≡ Adaptive Capacity

  27. How Risk is Changing: Hazards

  28. How Risk is Changing: Hazards IPCC. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2012.

  29. How Risk is Changing: Exposure Available: http://www.worldmapper.com

  30. How Risk is Changing: Exposure IPCC, SREX, 2012

  31. How Risk is Changing: Susceptibility Available: http://www.worldmapper.com Global Distribution of Preventable Deaths

  32. Mortality Distribution 95% of disaster deaths occur in the developing world IPCC, SREX, 2012

  33. Combination, 1975-2010 Disasters People Killed People Affected People Killed People Affected Disasters

  34. Health Effects of Disasters Pre-event – injuries, road traffic crashes Event – debris injuries, drowning Post-Event – displacement, chronic dz exacerbation Recovery – depression, violence

  35. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

  36. NOLA Health Care System Pre and Post Rudowitz et al., 2006; slide courtesy John Balbus

  37. Moving the Coping Range

  38. Approaches to risk and implications for public health The role of risk management

  39. Aspects of Risk Management Minimize or Avoid • Multiple components • Risk recognition • Risk assessment • Risk engagement • Multiple stances • Risk mitigation • Risk avoidance • Risk retention • Risk sharing Retain or Share

  40. okay, climate change is a problem. what do we do about it? Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts

  41. reduce emissions(mitigation) okay, climate change is a problem. what do we do about it? Increased GHG Emissions Increased GHG Concentrations Increased Temperature Climate Change Impacts prepare for / respond to the impacts(adaptation)

  42. Put another way: adapt to this mitigate against this

  43. Mitigation: “avoiding the unmanageable” Adaptation: “managing the unavoidable”

  44. Allaffect human health http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/graphics/ar4-wg1/ppt/figure02.ppt#278,22,Figure 2.21

  45. Potential Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation Policies • Energy generation – decreased air pollution • Transportation – increased physical activity, decreased air pollution, decreased injuries from collisions • Agriculture – reduced red meat consumption • Agriculture – improved nutrition

  46. Identifying synergies and opportunities for co-benefits

  47. Both Are Required Yohe and Leichenko 2010

  48. Risk Management Options IPCC SREX Summary for Policy Makers, available here.

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