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Forecasting

Forecasting. Forecasters May Miss Big Events. The Great Recession. Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADSA) Business Index, Fed at Philadelphia.

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Forecasting

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  1. Forecasting

  2. Forecasters May Miss Big Events • The Great Recession

  3. Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADSA)Business Index, Fed at Philadelphia • The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low-frequency information and stock and flow data. Both the ADS index and this web page are updated as data on the index's underlying components are released.

  4. Last Two years

  5. Since 2000

  6. Since 1960

  7. Survey of Professional Forecasters

  8. Probability Distribution on Annual growth

  9. You can stand taller on somebody else’s shoulders

  10. Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index

  11. FRED at St. Louis Fed: GDP, 1947-

  12. GDP 1947- (Log Scale)

  13. Change in GDP

  14. Last 5 Years GDP, $ Billions

  15. Change in GDP, Last 5 Years

  16. Change in Disposable Personal Income, Last 5 years

  17. Change in Personal Consumption Expenditures Since 1929, $ Billions

  18. Change in Personal Consumption Expenditures, last 5 years

  19. Civilian Unemployment Rate

  20. Unemployment Rate in California,Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

  21. Forecasts • Livingston Survey

  22. GDP Growth

  23. Interest rates

  24. Forecasters

  25. S&P 500

  26. Duration of Unemployment, FRED

  27. Duration of Unemployment

  28. California • California Economic Indicators

  29. Employment Growth” Month to Month Changes

  30. Home Building

  31. Month to month changes in Employment

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