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“Once a sex offender, always a sex offender?”

“Once a sex offender, always a sex offender?”. Claire Hargreaves – c.hargreaves1@lancaster.ac.uk Professor Brian Francis – asabjf@exchange.lancs.ac.uk Department of Mathematics and Statistics Lancaster University. European Society of Criminology, Vilnius, Lithuania, 2011. Sexual Offenders.

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“Once a sex offender, always a sex offender?”

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  1. “Once a sex offender, always a sex offender?” Claire Hargreaves – c.hargreaves1@lancaster.ac.uk Professor Brian Francis – asabjf@exchange.lancs.ac.uk Department of Mathematics and Statistics Lancaster University European Society of Criminology, Vilnius, Lithuania, 2011

  2. Sexual Offenders • Sexual offending is a major concern. • Should a sex offender always be labelled a sex offender? • Sex Offender Registration

  3. Sex Offender Registration • United Kingdom – Violent and Sex Offender Register (ViSOR) • Australia – Australian National Child Offender Register (ANCOR) • Canada – National Sex Offender Registry (NSOR) • United States of America – All 50 states have passed laws requiring sex offenders to register with police.

  4. Previous Research • Kurlychek, Brame and Bushway (2007) • “if a person with a criminal record remains crime free for a period of about 7 years, his or her risk of a new offence is similar to that of a person without any criminal record” (2007:80) • Soothill and Francis (2009) • Risk of a further conviction comes close to the non-offending population 10 to 15 years after their 20th birthday. • Blumstein and Nakamura (2009) • Bushway, Nieuwbeerta and Blokland (2011)

  5. My Research • Examining the criminal careers of convicted male sexual offenders, concentrating primarily on their desistance from sexual offending. • Although desistance can never truly be measured an offender’s risk of recidivism can be. • Establish when a convicted sexual offender has the same or similar risk of being convicted of a further sexual offence as the never convicted population.

  6. Data • The Offenders Index is held by the Ministry of Justice. The database holds conviction histories on over 10 million offenders from courts in England and Wales from 1963 to 2008. • The birth cohort data sets are publicly available, and contain conviction histories for offenders in eight birth cohorts: 1953, 1958, 1963, 1968, 1973, 1978, 1983 and 1988. The datasets are each samples of four birth weeks. • Male offenders make up 94% of all convicted sexual offenders

  7. Exploratory Analysis • In total there are 62,552 offenders from the eight cohorts, with a total of 445,680 convictions. • 3.7% of all convicted offenders were convicted of a sexual offence • Just under half of all convicted sex offenders had more than one sex conviction

  8. Methodology • Re-conviction of • Any offence • Sexual offence • Convicted offenders analysed • Sex Offenders • Burglary Offenders • All Offenders • Control group • Never convicted population

  9. Methodology • Hazard estimate of re-conviction • Offenders with a first conviction before the age of 21 • Time to conviction from age 21 • Life table analysis • Convergence of hazard rates

  10. Initial Analysis

  11. Initial Analysis

  12. Convergence of hazard rates

  13. Convergence of hazard rates

  14. Discussion • So when does a convicted sexual offender have the same or similar risk of being convicted of a further sexual offence as the never convicted population? • Convicted sex offenders have a similar risk of receiving a sex conviction as the never convicted population at the age of 46. • Convicted sex offenders do not appear to pose a more significant risk than any other type of offender of being convicted of any offence. • What does this mean for policy makers and authorities? • Why should sex offenders continue to be ostracised?

  15. Ongoing Work • Analysis on individual age groups • Period at risk • Limited number of risk factors • Sub categories of sexual offenders • Norwegian crime data • Rich content • Potential risk factors (Employment, education, marriage, fatherhood)

  16. References • Blumstein, A. and K. Nakamura, (2009) "Redemption in the Presence of Widespread Criminal Background Checks," Criminology Volume.47, No.2, (May). • Bushway, S., Nieuwbeerta, P. and Blockland, A. (2011) “The predictive value of criminal background checks: Do age and criminal history affect time to redemption?” Criminology, Volume.49, No.1 • Francis, B. And Soothill, K. (2010) “Retention and disclosure of old criminal records – data protection or protecting the public?” Presentation given at the Royal Statistical Society International Conference. • Kurlychek, M. C., Brame, R. and Bushway, S. (2007) “Enduring Risk: Old Criminal Records and Prediction of Future Criminal Involvement.” Crime and Delinquency. Volume.53, No.1. • Soothill, K. and Francis, B. (2009) “When do Ex-Offenders Become Like Non-Offenders?” The Howard Journal of Criminal Justice, Volume.48: 373–387.

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