Population Change and Poverty among the Elderly in Transitional China

1. Population Change and Poverty among the Elderly in Transitional China Juhua Yang Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China Beijing, January 23, 2009

2. Contents of the Presentation Purpose of this project Background Conceptual framework Data and methods Analytical results and discussion Policy implications

3. 1. Statement of Purpose (I) Individual wellbeing: a product of SE and political circumstances at multiple level, not a private issue SE development in China: (-) the poor in the total population Poverty reduction in China: contribute to the decline of poverty in the world; global significance (Sen 2002) Inclusion or exclusion of China in the prevalence of world poverty: a great difference

4. 1. Statement of Purpose (II) Driving forces of poverty reduction: Socioeconomic development Improved coverage of public welfare Population change at macro and household levels Poverty reduction among the elderly: slower Consensus on poverty among the elderly: A higher proportion of the households with elderly and the elderly in poverty A worsened trend of pauperization

5. 1.1 Statement of Purpose (III) Why is the reduction of poverty among the elderly slower than other segments of the population? How may population change (e.g. family context) be related to poverty among the elderly in the context of inadequate social welfare and support What are the mechanisms by which population change affects elderly poverty? What are the implications for policy reformulation and program intervention to improve the elderly WB?

6. 1.2 Objectives Investigate the relationship between population change and poverty among the elderly in transitional China with inadequate public welfare and support Provide better understanding of the population determinants of elderly poverty, while considering the role of SE and environmental factors in elderly life Draw societal and gov attention to scientific studies and program interventions for reducing the poverty and enhancing the wellbeing of the elderly

7. 2.1 Definitions of Key Concepts Elderly population: age 65+ Poverty: defined as Economic: relative and absolute Social: an essential element in the deprivation of capacity and empowerment of the elderly Population change: defined as Reduced fertility & mortality rate Population redistribution Changing population age structure Changing family structure and living arrangements

8. 2.2 Population Change (I) Later marriage; fewer children; frequent moves; longer life

9. 2.2 Population Change (II) Aging: a common global demographic trend; affected most countries; particularly EA societies (UN 2007) Aging in China: the proportion of people age 65+ = 7%; the share of people age 60+ = 10% of the total population in 2000 Fast pace of aging in the next decades (UN 2005); huge absolute amount of the elderly in the near future (Winkler 2002) Unique feature of aging in China: fast; wei-fu-xian-lao �getting old before getting rich�) (Tien 2005; Wu et al. 2004)

10. Figure 3. Dependence Ratio and Labor Force (%): China 1950-2050 Source: World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (UN 2007).

11. Figure 5-6. Proportion of Elderly Ages 65+ by Residence and Gender

12. 2.2 Population Change (III) Unprecedented migration; redistribution of population China�s 2005 National 1% Population Survey: some 150 million of migrants, over 10% of China�s total population (NPFPCC 2006) Most migrants: from the countryside; in working age; the elderly left behind Implications for the wellbeing of different segments of population (Du et al. 2004)

13. Figure 7. Size of Migrants in China: 1982-2005

14. 2.2 Population Change (IV) Changing fertility: reshaping the pool of eligible adult children to live with parents the feeling of family obligation among children (+) longevity: (+) the availability of parents surviving to the marriage of children, demanding for support Migration: increasing geographic distance between parents and children Reshaped family context: family type, size, LA, parental-child relationship

15. Figure 8. Family Size in China: 1947-2006

16. 2.3 Table 1. Status of Poverty among Elderly in China

17. Table 2. Daily Living Sources among the Elderly Ages 60+ in China

18. 3.1 Population Change and Poverty In high fertility regime: Reduce the poverty of the youth and women In low fertility regime: more complicated A non-linear linkage, depending upon the characteristics of varying segments of population Different aspects of population change: diverse impacts on poverty, on different dimensions of poverty, on the poverty of different segments of population Population-poverty relation: affected by the readiness and experience of the public support system of a country

19. 3.2 Conceptual Framework

20. 4.1 Data and Methods

21. 4.1 CLHLS Duke and Peking Univ; panel survey on the elderly in 1998, 2000, 2002 & 2005; Use last two waves Randomly selected half of the counties in each of 22 provinces (85% of total pop.); replacement Suitable for the purpose of this project Demographic, social, and economic variables Family structure and intergenerational relations Accessibility, affordability and utilization of health services and caring resources in community Public health insurance and retirement pension

22. 4.1 2007 Population Change and Elderly Poverty Interview In-depth interview among elderly ages 60+ in city and town neighborhoods, and rural villages in six provinces between September and December, 2007 Liaoning, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei, Sichuan, Gansu Differ substantively in socioeconomic development, population characteristics and public welfare Interviewed economic wellbeing, health, emotional solace, and public securities at the community and individual levels Both common and unique questions in each location

23. 4.2 Variables (I)

24. 4.2 Variables (II)

25. 4.2 Variables (III)

26. 4.3 Strategies of Analysis (I) Integration of qualitative data and quantitative data Univariate analysis Means or proportion of the characteristics of the elderly with a focus on poverty and population factors The trends, patterns and status of elderly poverty Bivariate analysis Poverty with population change and other correlates Similarities and disparities of the elderly by urban residence and gender in relation to poverty

27. 4.3 Strategies of Analysis (II) Multivariate analysis: Binary and ordered logistic regression models with RSE Multilevel models Fixed models Methodological issues: Endogeneity between economic status and health status IV models: hunger in childhood as instrument Sample selection bias for the stay elderly survey

28. 5. Analytical Results Notes: Results from various datasets and models are similar; only present findings from the CLHLS; complemented by qualitative data from in-depth interviews Not using Heckman selection model & instrument variable model � the latter model cannot concave

30. Figure 10-11 Rate Poverty among the Elderly in CLHLS

31. Figure 12. Rate Poverty among the Elderly (con�t)

32. Table 3. Logistic Model Results from the CLHLS (I)

33. Food of the elderly in different locations of interview

34. I do not have kids; I live with my nephew. You see, that is his house (a two-story, red brick building in the same yard, which is in sharp contrast with the elderly� house � author�s note). I am happy. I am an old blinder; I would have died in old society (prior to 1949 � author�s note), you know. The government gives me 70 yuan (about $10 � author�s note) each month; my nephew claims the money, but that is ok. He does not take care of me. I cook, wash cloth, and shop by myself; a relative carries water for me.� I do not want to live in nursing home. Why? There is no freedom, and I do not want to be thoughts as childless and cursed �may you die without a son.� � I eat meat whenever I want. You know, at the end of the lunar year, relatives always kindly give me a bucket of meat tips (a 76-year old man in Lintao County)

35. Left top: the 76-year-old childless man show us the �meat� he frequently eats Right top: His �meat�, molded Left: The feet of a 76-year-old female elderly, who just came back from her water field. Her son�s three-story brick building is next to her one-story, mod house

36. I have four children, two boys and two girls. Three are in Beijing, and one here. They all do well. They are filial, and give me lots of money. We have enough food, cloth, and my younger daughter bought me this spacious apartment (it is too big, and really a waste of money). My friends admire me, you know. But they do not have time to come back to visit us, even in holidays. They ask me to go to Beijing, but I have no friends there, and the kids do not have time to talk to me. I was there many times, you know, waiting for them to come home to talk to me, one word or two words. I look just like a fool and really do not want to go there, but I miss them (A 72-year-old urban female elderly)

37. Table 3. Logistic Model Results from the CLHLS (II)

38. Sharp contrast between have and have-not public support

39. (Common replies in interview; lack of medicare; Rural New Cooperation Medical Care, high premium, limited coverage) �Street doctors� are curing disease with Chinese traditional treatment

40. Table 3. Logistic Model Results from the CLHLS (III)

41. What lonely or not lonely? My spouse passed away two years ago. I am living alone. I do not want to live with my son and daughter-in law (a 73-year old man) Lonely? No! I am with my spouse. My son and daughter work in Chengdu; they give me money; I chat and play majoung with old pals in village teahouse. I�m not lonely

42. Table 3. Logistic Model Results from the CLHLS (IV)

43. The 73-year old man live with his spouse; he enjoys his life The 69-year old woman live a thrift yet happy life with his grandson The 66-year old man is cutting the hair of his �customer.� He feels useful and satisfied with his life

44. 5.4 Summery of Analytical Results Overall: stronger effect on economic poverty than on social poverty: Living arrangements, child composition; money variables; variables of elderly SE background For social poverty: stronger effect on health than on loneliness Intriguing findings, all else equal: age, widowhood status, rural female elderly

45. 6.1 Policy Implications (I) Particular attention to the elderly of sonless, childless, living alone, rural elderly For economic poverty Reform the retirement policy: interval of retiring age; same age policy for male and females Establish a multi-layer and complementary support system for all Facilitate the process of urbanizations to create more and better job opportunities

46. 6.2 Policy Implications(II) For social poverty Facilitate the �Home-Based community Elderly Support Network� Community services: worth of their names For younger elderly in good health status Provide opportunities for elderly to interact, work Recruit and encourage elderly volunteers Provide high-quality home services for older elderly Enhance the economic wellbeing of the elderly

47. 6.3 Conclusion (I) Rapid aging process (partly due to the OCP) Tremendous demand for public support The government: not prepared for the change Weakened family support Elderly: vulnerable to poverty or more so than others Not benefit from SE achievement & demographic dividend Rely on family support when the family culture reshaped Low fertility and migration do not necessarily improve the capacity of family support for the elderly

48. 6.3 Conclusion (II) Partly the responsibilities of the society to take care of them financially, physically and emotionally Reflecting gov. capacity to implement human-oriented political notion in pursuing economic prosperity A comprehensive coverage of public welfare for all elderly: underway, but it takes time; low standard Single force cannot effectively deal with the issue of elderly poverty; cooperation between the government, family, private sectors, community, NGOs

49. 6.4 Conclusion (III) This project focuses on current elderly, but the findings are informative for future elderly OCP affected many people; have only 1-2 children; will soon become elderly Low fertility shrank the pool of children providing support in their older age Crucial for the government to reformulate more suitable and more pertinent policies or programs for the would-be elderly

50. Future Studies The definition of poverty Comparable data of elderly wellbeing The size of the elderly in poverty Underlying mechanisms for some intriguing findings