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Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason What is CPT? Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) is an easy-to-use Windows-based software package for making downscaled seasonal climate forecasts.

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what is cpt
What is CPT?

Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) is an easy-to-use Windows-based software package for making downscaled seasonal climate forecasts.

It runs on Windows 95+. A source code version, which has no GUI or any of the graphics capabilities, is available for other platforms.

what is cpt4
What is CPT?

Specifically, CPT is designed to produce statistical forecasts of seasonal climate using either the output from a GCM, or fields of sea-surface temperatures.

The program provides extensive tests indicating forecast performance.

comparison of coupled and uncoupled simulations on simulation of indian monsoon precipitation
Comparison of Coupled and Uncoupled Simulations on Simulation of Indian Monsoon Precipitation
  • Andrew Robertson
  • Vincent Moron
  • David DeWitt
effect of coupling on simulated indian summer monsoon
Effect of Coupling on Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon

coupled

uncoupled

correlations (%) with CPC GSOD daily rainfall amount 1980–2003

effect of coupling on simulated indian summer monsoon7
Effect of Coupling on Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon

obs daily rainfall frequency

coupled

uncoupled

correlations (%) with CPC GSOD 1980–2003

agcm based coupled modeling at iri
AGCM-Based Coupled Modeling at IRI
  • Initial Coupled System:
    • ECHAM4.5-MOM3 Fully Coupled

COLA (Kirtman, Min) Provides ODA

Documented in:

Schneider et al. (2004)

DeWitt (2004)

DeWitt (2005)

DeWitt, Goddard, Li (In Preparation)

issues with initial forecast system
Issues with Initial Forecast System
  • ODA and OGCM are run at 2 different resolutions
  • ODA has large salinity drift due to mistreatment of fresh water flux
  • ODA system not parallel and historic records are not set up for operational usage.
  • Not apparent that direct coupling is best approach despite fact that it is methodology employed by all operational centers
  • Open question whether OGCM based systems are best tool to use for S/I forecasting
    • Computationally Expensive
    • Large systematic errors even in ocean only integrations (diffuse thermocline)
development path for next coupled models
Development Path for Next Coupled Models

AGCM- ECHAM4.5

Ocean Models:

MOM4 –

Postdoc (Galanti)

New postdoc (to be hired)

KKZ – Multi-mode reduced gravity model

LDEO (State Dependent Bias Corrected Models)

CZ(K) ocean

INC ocean

MOM4

Thermodynamic Ocean Models (Donna Lee)

slide12

Feedback Parameters

Ensemble mean ECHAM

1st month lead forecast

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

(Wm-2K-1)

slide13

Off-line SST prediction model

ECHAM forecast 24 ensemble

surface wind velocity,

cloud fraction

wind stresses

for Ekman effects

Seager ATM

Latent, sensible heat fluxes

and long wave radiation

SST

Ocean Mixed Layer

Fixed MLD at mean annual cycle (Levitus94)

Climatological dynamics through flux correction

slide14

Seager heat flux

1st mon Lead

1st mon Lead