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Growing World Population (B). Rising Cereal Demand (MMT). Transition Nations. Transition Nations. Developed Nations. Developed Nations. 9. 3000. Developing Nations. Developing Nations. 8. 2500. 7. 6. 2000. 5. 1500. 4. 3. 1000. 2. 500. 1. 1981. 1999. 2015. 2030. 1981.

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slide1

Growing World Population (B)

Rising Cereal Demand (MMT)

Transition Nations

Transition Nations

Developed Nations

Developed Nations

9

3000

Developing Nations

Developing Nations

8

2500

7

6

2000

5

1500

4

3

1000

2

500

1

1981

1999

2015

2030

1981

1999

2015

2030

Agriculture must continue to satisfy the demands of a complex global market

World population continues to expand

Per capita food consumption continues to rise

Consumers continue to demand improved taste, convenience, nutrition and health

slide2

FOOD OUTLOOK 2020

  • World demand for cereals and Meat
  • million metric tonnes
  • 1974 1997 2020
  • Developed countries664 725 822
  • Developing countries 560 1118 1675
  • Investments in food securityUS $578.90 billion
  • Irrigation 174.60
  • Rural Roads 120.30
  • Education 75.90
  • Clean water 86.50
  • National Agricultural Research 121.70
slide3

Facts on nutrition

  • Over all number of malnourished children is expected to continue its gradual decrease for 166 million in 1997 to 132 million in 2020
  • China’smalnourished children will fall by half
  • India will experience slow improvement and will remain 3rd of all malnourished children in the developing world
  • Sub-Saharan Africa is in perilous situation. The malnourished is expected to increase by 6 million for by18% compared with 1997. The region will remain “hot spot” of hunger and malnutrition for years to come

IFPRI , 2004

slide4

Iron

Zinc

Range

7–24

16–58

Average green revolution variety

12

22

IR68144

21

34

WHY MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY

Nutrition was low priority in crop breeding for improvement of varieties

Micronutrient density in rice

PPM

Khush , 2003

slide5

WHY MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY

  • Food Availability
  • Maping Index Mapping Typology States
  • Below 5.0 1. Extremely Low Gujarat
  • 5.0-6.5 2. Very Low RJ, BH
  • 6.5-8.5 3. Low MH,HY,KN,WB
  • 8.5-10.0 4. Moderate UP,HP,AS,TN,OR,AP
  • Above 10.00 5. High KL,MP,PJ
  • Indicators
  • Deficit of food production over consumption
  • Instability in cereal production
  • Environmental Sustainability Index
  • Number of people affected by disasters
  • Percentage of area affected by drought in the area
slide6

WHY MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY

  • Food Access
  • Maping Index Mapping Typology States
  • 0- 5.5 1. Extremely Low BH
  • 5.5-7.8 2. Very Low MP,TN,MH,OR,WB
  • 7.8-9.0 3. Low GJ,UP,AP,KL
  • 9.0-11.2 4. Moderate KN,AS,RJ,HY,PJ
  • 11.2-12.8 5. High HP
  • Indicators
  • Average per consumer unit per day calorie intake (Kcal) of the lowest deciles
  • Percentage of population consuming less than 1890 Kcal per consumer unit per day.
  • Percentage of population below the poverty line
  • Percentage of persons in labour households to the total population
  • Rural Infrastructure Index
  • Juvenile sex ratio (Femalesper thousand males in 0-9 years)
  • Percentage of literate females to total female population
  • Percentage of SC/ST population to total population
slide7

Indicators

  • Deficit of food production over consumption
  • Instability in cereal production
  • Environmental Sustainability Index
  • Number of people affected by disasters
  • Percentage of area affected by drought in the area

Food insecurity Atlas 2002

slide8

Traditional Technology

  • Past success developing countries
  • Science and Technology underpinned the economic & social gains in countries of South specially ASIA through green revolution(agriculture),white revolution ( milk production ) blue revolution ( marine products) resulted in by increased calorie availability per person 24 percent
  • the key factors are Scientific discoveries, government policies with respect to credit and farm inputs irrigation , public and private participation and international community initiatives
  • Increased agricultural productivity, rapid industrial growth and expansion of non farm rural economy contributed to almost tripling of per capita GDP
slide9

Strategies Safety

  • Genetic engineering Safety
  • Molecular marker assisted breeding Allright
  • Tissue culture Fine
  • Biological agents Explain
slide10

Stages in Research Development and Commercialization of Transgenic Plants

Commercia-

lization

Discovery

Development

Biosafety

Public acceptance

BASIC RESEARCH

APPLIED RESEARCH

DEVELOPMENT

VERI-FICATION AND VALI-DATION

BREEDING LINE DEVELOP-MENT

FIELD TRIALS

VARIETAL REGISTRATION/CERTIFICATION

MARKETTING

CULTIVATION AND PROCESSING

Rs

30m

30m

30m

20m

yrs

0

3

5

7

10

Farmers

Consumers

Trait

Gene

Tissue culture

Gene delivery

Transgenics

Molecular analysis

Seed set and lab

testing

Green house testing

Limited field trials

Toxicity and

allergenicity and

environmental impact

Large scale field trials

with all India

coordination

ICAR/SAUs

Variety release

breeders-

foundation-

certification of seeds

slide11

What Happened and Why

Successful Crops

% of Acreage Planted to GE Varieties

In U.S. in 2003

slide12

Thinking in terms stakeholdersthanstock holders

Project

affected

people

Individual and families near the project

Indigenous groups and their leaders

Public sector

Local state &

National governments

Multinational & bilateral

development institutions

Private sector

Project financiers

Local business

Industry

associations

KEY STAKEHOLDERS

Advocacy Groups

Local and National grass

roots NGO’s

Religious groups University

and research centers

slide13

concerns

  • The potential risk to
  • health of human beings, animals, and environment
  • social, political and economic relationships
  • fundamental philosophical, religious or “ metaphysical” value of individuals or groups
environment
Loss of biodiversity

Cross-pollination

Emergence of superweeds and superbugs

Potential increase in use of herbicides

Need to increase yields to feed growing population

Possibility of reducing need for pesticides, fertilizers

Grow more food on same amount of land

Environment

Pro-GM

Anti-GM

*Opinions are generalized, and not all opponents or proponents may hold all of these views.

human health
Fear of unknown allergens

Spread of anti-biotic resistance

Inadequate regulation of new products

Greater regulations than other foods

Potential benefits to nutrition

golden rice

enhanced protein content in corn

soybean oil with less saturated fat

Human Health

Anti-GM

Pro-GM

food security
Need redistribution, not just more

Farmers will not be able to afford expensive seed, ’technology fees’

Developing countries need not have to eat the food others reject

Modified seeds will allow farmers to grow more to feed their family and to sell, reducing the need for food aid

Public-private cooperation can transfer technology

Food Security

Pro-GM

Anti-GM

socio economic concerns
Corporations benefit, not those in need

Products needed in developing countries are not being developed because the market is not profitable

It is wrong to patent life

Patents needed because new strains are intellectual property

Publicly funded research can benefit the public good

Socio-economic concerns

Anti-GM

Pro-GM

slide18

Parameters to transgenics useful in effectiveness of strategies

Technology transcending

Consumer/farmers views

Time

Cost -benefit

Investment

Options and alternatives

Precision

Safety

IPR

expertise

Success criteria

Socio-economic factors

Integration with existing strategies

Product formulation

Product Delivery systems

slide19

Activities of different Players

Research and DevelopmentPublic

Government

Regulatorydevelopment

Government

Technology Transfer Marketing

Joint Efforts

private sector

FARMER

CONSUMER

slide20

WHAT ARE PUBLIC CONCERNS

  • The term genetically engineered/ manipulated/modified is uncomfortable
  • The technology is new and unfamiliar
  • The technology is difficult to understand
  • Whether GMOs safe
  • to environment
  • to Consumption
  • What are the benefits from this change
slide21

PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK

  • Negative Campaigns.
  • Recent regulatory failure.
  • Communication gap by proponents.
slide22

NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNS

  • Are not being seriously confronted.
  • Communication between less informed to ignorant perpetuates aberrant meanings.
  • Propagandists communicate better than proponents.
  • Media encourages sensational negative views.
slide23

TYPICAL CASE

  • Negative Campaigner FACT
  • Transgenics do not increase yield. Not True
  • GMO not suited for sustainable agriculture. False
  • Insect killing genes destroy beneficial insects also. False
  • Encourage monopoly Not related to BT
  • Pollens escape and weeds benefit. False
  • Approvals for regulated field trial but in practice False commercially growned. (Monitoring)
slide24

REGULATORY FAILURES

  • Incidents shaking public confidence:
  • Dropsy from contaminated Mustard Oil.
  • Blood screening failure for HIV.
  • Spurious seed manufacturers.
  • Spurious pesticides/fertilisers.
  • [None involve Biotechnology but all involve major regulatory failure]
  • PUBLIC OPINION IS BASED ON PERCEPTIONS OF REALITY RATHER THAN ON REALITY ITSELF
slide25

SURVEY RESULTS ON FOOD SAFETY- EXAMPLE

  • Do you fear that branded milk may be adulterated and unsafe to drink?

Yes 60% No 13% Can’t say 27%

  • What is your regular source of milk supply?

DMS 12% Mother Dairy 38%

Milkman/Private Dairy 50% (Pasteurization ?)

Delhiities Say

Food adulteration is rampant & the law against it remains only on paper 93%

Checking, testing and enforcement machinery must be revamped and strengthened 96%

Awareness must be built up among public so that they are also vigilant. 98%

Telephonic poll conducted

by TNS-MODE among 249 Delhiities on May 31 to June 2.

system of variety development and release

DEVELOPMENT & TESTING

Coordinated Variety Release Committee

State variety release committee.

Notification by sub-committee on crop standards, release and notification.

E

Seed Production

Foundation

Certified Seed

Marketing

SYSTEM OF VARIETY DEVELOPMENT AND RELEASE

Public Sector Variety’s Release

Breeder

slide27

i) Testing of public variety’s release

Certification

Seed production

Marketing

ii) Development and Testing of private sector developed varieties

[NO SYSTEM OF RELEASE AND NOTIFICATION THROUGH PUBLIC SECTOR CHANNELS]

Seed Production …..

Marketing

SYSTEM OF VARIETY DEVELOPMENT AND RELEASE

Private Sector Variety’s Release

PVP PBR

slide28

DBT

SYSTEM OF TRANSGENICSRELEASE

CHECKS AND COUNTER CHECKS

ENVIRON-MENT SAFETY

FOOD SAFETY

QUARANTINE

IBSC -- RCGM -- GEAC

REGULATED FIELD TRIALS

DATA ANALYSIS, LOCATION TRIALS

NBPGR ICAR

SEED REGISTRATION

LABELLING

slide29

Traffic Police

FATE OF ILLEGAL GMO TRAFFICKING

SMUGGLING GMO’s IS CRIME

slide30

Gujarat’s illegal Bt Cotton case

MOEF

DBT

Government

of

India

COMPANY B

Quarantine ?

Government

of

Gujarat

State Government

Seed act

COMPANY A

slide31

A TYPICAL CASE OF STAKEHOLDERDS INTERACTION - SHAPING THE FUTURE OF TRANSGENICS

Media- reported regularly and views of all without wrong interpretations

Politicians - wanted protection of farmer interests

and punishment of guilty as per Law

Central government: want to enforce EPA Act through sate government as per biosafety guidelines

Farmers - request to protect their investment and enforce law at the same time

Public general: getting information and are more concerned for the future

Scientists : want to set an example by punishing the guilty to set an example

Consensus is building on to protect farmers interest, punish guilty and ensure maximum safety to environment with relatively low risk

slide32

Private character of biotechnology

A CONCERN

  • In the late 1970s the top 20 pharmaceutical companies collectively had about 5 percent of the global pharmaceutical market. If you look at it today, they have over 40 percent of the global pharmaceutical market.
  • We didn’t pay much attention to veterinary medicines 20 years ago, but today the top 10 have about 60 percent of the global market in veterinary medicines
slide33

Private character of biotechnology A CONCERN

  • In 1979 there were 7000 public and private seed institution.s. Not even one company occupied significant percentage of global commercial seed market. Today 10 companies control in excess of 1/3 of global commercial seed market.
  • In the late 1970s, there were 65 companies that were inventing and marketing crop chemicals-- herbicides, insecticides, nematicides and so on . Now we’re down to nine companies that make up about 91 percent of the global market.
slide34

Agriculture biotechnology Market Shares 1999

Du Pont

Aventis

3%

Syngenta

7%

5%

BASF

5%

Monsanto

80%

slide35

NOT ONLY GEPS ?

LEHAR

WHEAT

SOAPS

FLOUR

WIMPY

CLOTHES

HONDA

ALOO

Mc DONALDS

BHUJIA

FORD

DOMINOS

COMPUTERS

COSMETICS

CELLO PHONES

ICECREAMS

PIZZA

KENTUCKY

CHICKEN

WIPRO

WTO

CODEX

CBD

TRIPS

slide36

DESCRIPTION OF TRADITIONAL FARMER

  • Illiterate
  • Small and Marginal
  • Subsistence farming
  • No Money for inputs
  • Low risk bearing ability
slide37

DESCRIPTION OF MODERN FARMER

  • Politically proactive
  • Moderately literate -- 1951 (18%), 1991(33-75%)
  • Access to TV, phone and modern transport
  • Awareness level
  • Moderately conscious
slide39

CHANGING RURAL LIFESTYLE

Spending on Consumables excluding grains

Rs. 202-441/- PM (Average Rs. 270/- PM)

PENETRATION OF

  • Necessary products (Toilet soaps,Washing cake, Tea)

60-91%

  • Share of total consumption (Toilet soap, Washing cakes, Blades)

50%

  • Creams, Shampoo, Powder

20-54%

slide41

CONTRASTING AGRICULTURE SCENARIO

USA INDIA

No of farm families 0.9m 105M

Average size of farm 200 Ha < 2ha

Share in workforce <2% >64%

Contribution to GDP 1.7% 26%

slide42

Farmers are politically proactive, audio visual literate and eager to adopt new biotechnologies

“ I DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY YOU ARE ALL FIGHTING . WE HAVE TRUST IN OUR SCIENTISTS AND LEARNED PEOPLE . WHEN YOU CAN ARRANGE MODERN DANGEROUS ARMS TO SOLDIERS, WHY CAN NOT YOU PROVIDE MODERN TOOL AND TECHNIQUES TO FARMERS TO INCRASE PRODUCTIVITY . PLEASE DO NOT DELAY. WE CAN DECIDE THE FATE OF TECHNOLOGY IN NO TIME“

slide43

IMPACT OF BT COTTON IN CHINA

Estimated area :

1997 4491000 HA

1998 4459000 HA

1999 3736000 HA

Percentage surveyed Farmers: 1- 85.6

Control plants Boll worm resistant and susceptible

Bt varieties CAAS (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences) and Monsanto- DPL (MDP) varieties

Yield : seed cottonBt Non Bt St deviation

Mean Kg/Ha 3426-3495 2841-3700 550-585

slide44

COST OF SEED COTTON PRODUCTION ( RMB )

NonBt

RMB /Kg 3.99-4.45

BT

!

RMB /Kg 2.68-3.19

Pesticide sprays reduced to 3- 12 from 30 or 15000 tons

slide45

DISTRIBUTION OF THE BENEFITS

  • Smaller farmers adoption was about the same as larger farmers
  • Higher income groups adopted more completely than lower income groups
  • Smaller farms and farms which had lower income consistently obtained larger increases in net income than larger farmers and those with higher incomes
  • Farmers benefited by $ 45 to 69.6 million ( 82.5 to 87% )
  • Seed companies benefited by gross revenue of $ 5-9.6 million
  • Monsanto and Delta Pine Land profitted by less than 6 percent of the income earned by farmers by adopting their Bt cotton
slide46

Performance of Bt MECH-162, non-Bt MECH-162, CC under IPM and CC without IPM

Treatment IPM Non-IPM

Bt MECH-162 non-Bt MECH-162 CC CC

Area (ha) 5.76 1.44 18.70 7.28

Seed cotton 12.375a 9.620b 7.060c 3.704d

Yield (q/ha)8*

Yield of pigeonpea nil nil 2.47 1.47

(q/ha)**

Returns (Rs/ha) 28462 22126 20420 11018

Cost of production, 12231 9693 9913 10074

including protecton (Rs/ha)

New returns (Rs/ha) 16231 12433 10507 944

B:C ratio 2.327 2.283 2.060 1.094

Means with at least one letter common are not significantly different.

*Market rate Rs.2300 per q seed cotton.

** Market rate Rs.1700 per q.

slide47

Population of sucking pests, bollworms and natural enemies

Mean number of pests/natural enemies over the season

IPM Non-IPM

Insect pest Standard week# Bt MECH-162 Non- Bt MECH-162 CC CC

Sucking pests*

Whiteflies 30-42 0.15ª 0.15ª 0.24b 0.29b

Jassids 30-42 0.07ª 0.07ª 0.14b 1.97c

Thrips 30-42 4.88ª 4.56ª 5.98b 12.62c

Aphids 30-42 3.96ª 3.50ª 20.56b 44.34c

Bollworms**

American bollworm eggs 31-49 0.12ª 0.12ª 0.08b 0.17c

American bollworm larvae 31-49 0.03ª 0.06b 0.05b 0.09c

Spotted bollworm larvae 31-49 0.00ª 0.01ª 0.03b 0.06c

Natural enemies **

Green lacewign eggs 31-49 0.37ª 0.37ª 0.61b 0.26c

Ladybird beetle adults 31-49 1.33ª 1.23ª 2.06b 0.69c

Means with at least one letter common are not significantly different.

# Standard week 30 corresponds to 23-29 July.

8 Number of insects/three leaves, ** Number of insects/plant.

slide48

WHY COMMUNICATE

  • People who have knowledge tend to accept.
  • People who lack knowledge reject.
  • Public determines commercial success.
  • Perception being based on misunderstood or distorted data.

“That which is not understood is feared, and that which is feared is opposed”

slide49

The public should be viewed as a “partner” and a level of trust needs to be created. Developing this style will be a major challenge for business leaders as well as university scientists and government regulators.

(NELKIN, 1997)

PROPONENTS OF TECHNOLOGY SHOULD START COMMUNICATING EFFECTIVELY THAN OPPONENTS.