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Agriculture and Rural D evelopment, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006 MDG1: Reducing Poverty is still mostly a rural development issue Most of the poor are rural (70% on average)
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Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts
June 9, 2006
Low income countries
High Payoffs to agriculture R&D; but also to other interventions: investment works.Number of Persons Removed from Poverty for a Given Public Investment in Agriculture versus other Sectors
IFPRI studies by Fan et al
Datt and Ravallion, 1998
Hazell and Ramasamy, 1991
Thirtle, et. al., 2002
Holt and Pryor, 1999
Agricultural productionFood industryConsumption
Food retail industry
Food process industry
FAOSTAT2002 / GEM2005
Hunger is increasing in Africa, decreasing in Asia
What do the hungry do?
North Africa & Middle East
Rest of Asia
NutrientCerealWheat Rice IrrigationUse Tractors Productionmillion ha million t millions million t
Adoption ofModern varieties
M ha / % area
1961 0 / 0% 0 / 0% 87 2 0.2 3091970 14 / 20% 15 / 20% 106 10 0.5 4631980 39 / 49% 55 / 43% 129 29 2.0 6181990 60 / 70% 85 / 65% 158 54 3.4 8582000 70 / 84% 100 / 74% 175 70 4.8 962 Source: FAOSTAT, July 2002 and author’s estimated on modern variety adoption, based on CIMMYT and IRRI data.
One Answer is to diversify Smallholder Agriculture and Income in Africa
Improve basic foods
Include cash crops
NetherlandsVietnamJapanUnited Kingdom ChinaFranceBrazilUnited Status IndiaMéxicoSouth AfricaCubaBeninMalawiEthiopiaMalíBurkina FasoNigeriaTanzania Mozambique GuineaGhanaUganda
Consumption of fertilizer nutrients per hectare of arable land is very low in Africa (2002)
Source: FAOSTAT, July 2005
Part of the solution will be to build Smallholder Input Retailer Systems
Example: Smallholder Seed Sector
Foundation Seed Production
R & D
Private enterprise, with IP licensing
Private dealers, NGOs,
Kilometers of paved roads per million people in selected countries
Km KmUSA 20,987 Guinea 637France 12,673 Ghana 494Japan 9,102 Nigeria 230Zimbabwe 1,586 Mozambique 141South Africa 1,402 Tanzania 114Brazil 1,064 Uganda 94India 1,004 Ethiopia 66China 803 Congo, DR 59Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, 2002
Controversy: Does government intervention in agriculture markets actually make sense; based on failure of private sector to invest in mktg and agro-business?
Controversy: Water Consumption projected to Increase during 1995 to 2025. Will it be resolved through investment, or conservation, or better management, or all three? And what impact climate change?
World Water and Food to 2025, 2002
MEast & NAfrica
Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe 1978-1993
Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia 1982-2000
Water storage and the poverty trap
Egypt: water security; hydro/gas substitution, flood/ drought/ sediment mitigation
Sudan: major flood/ drought/ sediment mitigation, irrigation, power, navigation…
Ethiopia: major hydropower generation, watershed management, irrigation, storage, FDI…
Eastern Nile: 170 million; conflict & historical tension; nothing flows…
Eastern Nile: peace, trade, joint investment, prosperity …