agriculture and rural d evelopment forests and water l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Agriculture and Rural D evelopment, Forests, and Water PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Agriculture and Rural D evelopment, Forests, and Water

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 56

Agriculture and Rural D evelopment, Forests, and Water - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 645 Views
  • Uploaded on

Agriculture and Rural D evelopment, Forests, and Water Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts KCleaver June 9, 2006 MDG1: Reducing Poverty is still mostly a rural development issue Most of the poor are rural (70% on average)

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Agriculture and Rural D evelopment, Forests, and Water' - albert


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
agriculture and rural d evelopment forests and water

Agriculture and Rural Development,Forests, and Water

Strategy Implementation, Recent Trends, and new concepts

KCleaver

June 9, 2006

mdg1 reducing poverty is still mostly a rural development issue
MDG1: Reducing Poverty is still mostly a rural development issue
  • Most of the poor are rural (70% on average)
partly because agriculture is the leading sector in low income countries
Partly because agriculture is the Leading Sector in Low Income Countries

Low income countries

WDI, 2002

slide4

High Payoffs to agriculture R&D; but also to other interventions: investment works.Number of Persons Removed from Poverty for a Given Public Investment in Agriculture versus other Sectors

IFPRI studies by Fan et al

poverty is reduced in india as crop yields increase investment in r d works
Poverty is reduced in Indiaas crop yields increase (investment in R&D works)

Datt and Ravallion, 1998

slide6
Changes in Household Incomes in Southern India, 1973-84 (the poorest benefit from farm income expansion)

Hazell and Ramasamy, 1991

slide7
Another way of looking at this: the poverty effect of a 1 % pro-ductivity Gain in Agriculture, Industry, and Services in India

Thirtle, et. al., 2002

change in malnourished children depends on public investment in agriculture 2020 ifpri
% Change in Malnourished Children Depends on Public Investment in Agriculture, 2020 (IFPRI)
slide9
A problem however: agricultural area expansion has displaced forest and woodland; Need agricultural growth without area expansion

FAOSTAT, 2002

slide10
An opportunity being missed? Agribusiness Sector is also Large in Developing Economies and can pull agriculture

Holt and Pryor, 1999

slide11
Taking an Integrated Approach to Value Chain Management;And the growing importance of private sector investment and innovation

Agricultural productionFood industryConsumption

Input industry

Consumers

Producers

Food retail industry

Food process industry

Research

Ext. service

decline in commodity prices 1979 1999
Decline in Commodity Prices; 1979-1999 ……

FAOSTAT, 2002

FAOSTAT2002 / GEM2005

to confront the challenges and address the opportunities what has the bank done lately
To confront the challenges and address the opportunities, what has the Bank done lately?
  • The Bank’s 2002/2003 Agriculture and Rural Development, Forests, and Water Resources Strategies, contributed to renewed donor interest in all three sectors
  • Bank advocacy for agricultural subsidy and trade reform starting to bite, though failure of Doha is a setback
world bank lending for rural development up
World Bank Lending for Rural Development up
  • Bank loans and credits with significant rural components are up:
    • From $5 billion in FY02 to $7 billion in FY 03 and FY04; $ 8 billion in FY05
    • The number of projects with rural components: 175 in FY03 to 195 in FY04, 217 in FY05
composition of rural lending
Composition of Rural Lending
  • One-third of rural lending is to the infrastructure sector, while the agriculture sector received a fifth.
why the decline in agriculture lending from fy90 to fy03 increasing only in fy04 to fy06
Why the decline in agriculture lending from FY90 to FY03 (increasing only in FY04 to FY06)?
  • Agriculture relatively less important as new sectors became priority (social protection, development policy lending, anti-corruption, public administration)
  • Big projects fell out of favor (for example large scale irrigation, integrated rural development, agriculture credit, commodity support through parastatal enterprises).
  • New style projects are smaller scale (CDD, irrigation rehab, micro-credit, agriculture research and knowledge, soil rehabilitation and land management, land titling)
  • Agriculture not the priority of Ministers of Finance, nor of Bank country directors
  • Quality problems with agriculture projects until recently
  • Urban group argued that rapid expansion of cities in developing countries, should cause a shift in priority to urban development
quality of bank s agriculture projects
Quality of Bank’s Agriculture Projects
  • Early QAG ratings for quality at entry, and quality of supervision for agriculture projects were poor
    • However, quality at entry for agriculture and rural projects (88% satisfactory) is now only slightly less than the Bank (90%)
    • And the quality of supervision of agriculture and rural projects (95% satisfactory) is better than the Bank (90%)
  • Projects under implementation
    • 7% of agriculture and rural development projects in problem status; average for all Bank projects is 10%
    • 10% of agriculture and rural projects at risk compared to 15% for all Bank projects
quality
Quality
  • Closed projects
    • According to OED ratings of closed projects:
      • Agriculture and RD (ARSB) 4 points higher than the Bank for outcome (87% satisfactory in FY04 compared to 83% for all Bank projects)
      • A major improvement over the 64% satisfactory for rural projects in the FY99-2001 period and prior.
the analytical products
The analytical products
  • Agriculture Water issues and approaches - Sourcebook
  • Agriculture - Directions in development
  • Rural Finance - Approach Paper
  • Agriculture and MDGs
  • Macroeconomic links to forestry
  • IPM approach paper
  • Water for food - Directions in development
  • Innovation in managing agriculture production risk in developing countries
  • Innovations in rural finance
  • Managing the challenges of the livestock revolution
  • Gender issues and best practices in land administration projects
  • Sustainable Land management
analytical work at country level increasing
Analytical work at country level increasing
  • Economic and sector work increasing (23 country Rural Development strategies and water CASs), and rural content of CASs improving (73% of CASs satisfactory from rural/agriculture viewpoint)
slide25

CONTROVERSY 1: HOW TO STIMULATE RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA?

Hunger is increasing in Africa, decreasing in Asia

What do the hungry do?

North Africa & Middle East

Landless Rural

Poor

Latin America

40

60

22%

230

South Asia

50%

200

Urban Poor

Farmers

Marginal

Land

20%

SSA

115

155

8%

East Asia

Pastorists/Fishers

Rest of Asia

slide26

Can the Asian Green Revolution be duplicated in Africa?

NutrientCerealWheat Rice IrrigationUse Tractors Productionmillion ha million t millions million t

Adoption ofModern varieties

M ha / % area

1961 0 / 0% 0 / 0% 87 2 0.2 3091970 14 / 20% 15 / 20% 106 10 0.5 4631980 39 / 49% 55 / 43% 129 29 2.0 6181990 60 / 70% 85 / 65% 158 54 3.4 8582000 70 / 84% 100 / 74% 175 70 4.8 962 Source: FAOSTAT, July 2002 and author’s estimated on modern variety adoption, based on CIMMYT and IRRI data.

slide27

One Answer is to diversify Smallholder Agriculture and Income in Africa

Improve basic foods

Include cash crops

I

Integrate livestock

Add agro-processing

slide28

WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN AFRICA

  • Africa has the potential to irrigate 20% of its arable land
  • Only 4% is currently irrigated
  • Small-scale irrigation systems generally are the most cost- effective
  • Focus on high potential countries for irrigation; Ethiopia, Sudan, all Sahel, South Africa, Malawi, Botswana, Zimbabwe,
slide29

NetherlandsVietnamJapanUnited Kingdom ChinaFranceBrazilUnited Status IndiaMéxicoSouth AfricaCubaBeninMalawiEthiopiaMalíBurkina FasoNigeriaTanzania Mozambique GuineaGhanaUganda

Consumption of fertilizer nutrients per hectare of arable land is very low in Africa (2002)

Kg/ha

600

100

200

300

400

500

0

Source: FAOSTAT, July 2005

slide30

Part of the solution will be to build Smallholder Input Retailer Systems

  • Business development assistance
  • Multiple products & services
  • Commercial credit lines
  • Technical advisory services
  • Contract service provider
slide31

Making Markets Work for Smallholders

Storage

Inputs

Marketing

Processing

slide32

Public-Private Partnerships

Example: Smallholder Seed Sector

Foundation Seed Production

Farmer

Seed Production

Germplasm

Development

IP

Distribution

Mainly

Public

Sector

R & D

Private enterprise, with IP licensing

Mixed

NGOs,

farmers’ assn.,

private growers

Private dealers, NGOs,

farmers’ assn.,

private growers

slide33

Solving Infrastructure Problem

Kilometers of paved roads per million people in selected countries

Km KmUSA 20,987 Guinea 637France 12,673 Ghana 494Japan 9,102 Nigeria 230Zimbabwe 1,586 Mozambique 141South Africa 1,402 Tanzania 114Brazil 1,064 Uganda 94India 1,004 Ethiopia 66China 803 Congo, DR 59Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, 2002

beginnings of success in africa
Beginnings of success in Africa?
  • Examples of good recent projects include:
    • Irrigation rehabilitation and Water User Associations in Mali and Nigeria
    • Natural disaster mitigation in Southern Africa (maybe)
    • Bringing the private sector to agriculture services in Senegal
    • Rural financial services in Ghana and Tanzania
    • Community participation in agriculture service management in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania
    • Commodity risk mitigation in Tanzania using insurance instruments, and in Malawi using hedge instrument
    • New Fisheries Investments in Guinea Bissau, Senegal
    • Rockefeller Foundation use of retail outlets to sell inputs
    • Agriculture policy reform in Uganda and Mali
controversy 2 reforming development assistance to agriculture and rural development
Controversy 2: Reforming Development Assistance to Agriculture and Rural Development
  • Increase coordinated donor support for African investment in R&D, land reform, irrigation, food security, soil improvement, infrastructure, non-farm rural enterprise, high value agriculture.
  • Donors to support community driven development, private sector and other non-government efforts, not just government programs
  • Donors to help countries reduce vulnerability to shocks; safety nets, including by improving food aid delivery mechanisms, introduction of market based approaches
  • Help with market reforms, while advocating tariff and subsidy reform in own (industrial) country
  • Donor support to be sustained for longer periods
  • More vigorous support for Global Donor platform and expanded country pilots?
controversy regarding food insecurity and food self sufficiency
Controversy regarding food insecurity and food self-sufficiency
  • Food Aid as solution for malnutrition and hunger
    • Pro: if food availability is insufficient (e.g. humanitarian emergencies),donors should send food to save lives; food is human right
    • Con: Food aid is a disincentive to invest in agriculture and reduces farmers’ income in the recipient country; and food aid disrupts marketing channels (prevents market development)
  • School Food Programs
    • Con: earlier intervention from pregnancy to the 1st two years of life is more effective in dealing with under-nutrition in children. School feeding is too late.
    • Pro: easiest and fastest way to get food to children
  • Agricultural biotechnology - GMOs
    • Pro: (1) food & nutritional benefits, (2) increased production, (3) reduced post-harvest losses, (4) health benefits (China Bt cotton) (The Bank generally supports this position)
    • Con: (1)environmental risks and expensive, (2) innovation has most benefited large farmers, (3) lack of capacity to regulate in many developing countries
controversy on trade and subsidy reform
Controversy on Trade and Subsidy reform
  • Developing countries’ agricultural exports to rich countries have stagnated, as has agricultural trade between developing countries
  • TRADE FLOWS
slide38
Largely because Agricultural Tariffs Remain Much Higher Than Manufacturing tariffs in virtually all countries
the trade solution
The Trade solution?
  • All research agrees on the need for industrial countries to remove agricultural trade protection and agricultural subsidies to stimulate developing country agri. trade
  • But industrial countries have not done it. What needs to be done to get this industrial country policy change?
  • Should developing countries also reduce agricultural trade protection and agricultural subsidies, despite industrial country resistance?
    • Pro: this would reduce food prices to consumers and stimulate agricultural trade between developing countries thereby stimulating agric. Growth (the Bank’s position)
    • Con: this would invite dumping of agricultural products by industrial countries (many developing countries hold this view)
land tenure controversy
Land Tenure Controversy
  • Issue:land quality and size are typically highly unequal in distribution. Are land re-distribution programs the answer (recent programs in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Eastern Europe; and past programs in Latin America)?
  • One view: re-distribution of land will help poor farmers. Otherwise marginal farmers will stay marginal, poor and hungry
  • Another view: Government’s land distribution programs are usually political and don’t succeed. Best is to invest directly in small farms and encourage investment in rural non farm enterprise to create employment
  • The Bank has found that market based approaches, land registration and tenure security systems work well. WB has $ 1 billion portfolio (Salvador, Honduras, ECA, East Asia)
slide41

Controversy: Does government intervention in agriculture markets actually make sense; based on failure of private sector to invest in mktg and agro-business?

  • Pro: Governments are the main instruments of change in conservative societies. Government’s investments in agricultural research, extension, education, credit and infrastructure are vital for development in rural areas – leading to income growth and nutrition improvement.
  • Private sector does not risk investing significantly in developing country mktg and input supply
  • Con: Governments botch it. Leave it to the market, or to public-private partnerships. Agriculture increasingly demand driven by consumer through supermarket or other market. Government supply driven marketing and processing increasingly un-responsive. Governments to enable market development, and invest in complementary infrastructure, regulation, safety standards, R & D.
slide42

Controversy: Water Consumption projected to Increase during 1995 to 2025. Will it be resolved through investment, or conservation, or better management, or all three? And what impact climate change?

World Water and Food to 2025, 2002

per capita water availability is a problem to be exacerbated by climate change
Per capita water availability is a problem, to be exacerbated by climate change

16

Africa

14

12

10

Thousand m3

World

8

Asia

6

4

2

MEast & NAfrica

0

1960

1990

2025

climate rainfall variability economic growth

Kenya: variability & shock

Climate/rainfall Variability & Economic Growth

Risk of recurrent drought

Natural legacy:

extreme climate variability

slide45

Economy-wide impacts

Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe 1978-1993

Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia 1982-2000

slide46

Water storage in m3/cap

7,000

6,150

Water storage and the poverty trap

6,000

4,729

5,000

4,000

3,255

2,486

3,000

2,000

1,406

1,287

746

1,000

43

0

Laos

Africa

Brazil

South

China

Ethiopia

North

Thailand

America

Australia

  • Stable pop. & GDP, raising Ethiopia’s storage to South Africa (12% of USA) ~ 6 X GDP
  • Or 5% of GDP for over 100 yrs
slide48

Nile Basin Initiative

  • 10 countries: Burundi, D.R. Congo, Egypt, (Eritrea), Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
  • 300 m people (600m 2025)
  • Extreme:
    • poverty: 4 of 10 poorest
    • climate variability and climate change impact
    • landscape vulnerability
  • Very limited infrastructure….
slide49

An Emerging Deal on the Nile…

Egypt: water security; hydro/gas substitution, flood/ drought/ sediment mitigation

Sudan: major flood/ drought/ sediment mitigation, irrigation, power, navigation…

Ethiopia: major hydropower generation, watershed management, irrigation, storage, FDI…

Eastern Nile: 170 million; conflict & historical tension; nothing flows…

Eastern Nile: peace, trade, joint investment,  prosperity …

slide50
Tropical forests disappearing rapidly despite donor investment, NGO advocacy, regulatory reform. How to stop this?
  • Huge expansion of World Bank activity in Forests:
    • Renewed IFC commitment: From $45 million in FY01 to $300 million in FY05
  • Strong donor partnerships and have been formed
    • PROFOR financed 22 forest activities in FY04;
    • WWF-WB alliance 90 forest activities with targets for protected areas being met
    • Targets for sustainable logging likely to be met
  • Bank engagement in Congo Basin, Brazil, Russia, India, China, Honduras, and forest lending increasing ($ 319 m in FY05 and 06) . Increasingly using community owned and managed forests, in partnership with forest service and logging industry
  • But controversy remains: NGOs find too much logging, illegal harvesting, agricultural encroachment
  • Issue: are we on the right track, but need much more funding and commitment for forest projects and programs to have impact?
  • Or is there a fundamental flaw in the approach? Are the NGOs correct that banning logging in much wider areas and banning agricultural incursion is likely to have bigger impact?
  • New Concept of Avoided Deforestation (with the Nature Conservancy – using carbon offset funding)
slide51
What to do about rural finance: given the failure of agriculture credit loans through state owned banks
  • Financial cooperative / credit union system developed.
    • Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Albania
  • Specialized rural finance institution founded
    • Kyrgyzstan, Lithuania, Mauritania
  • Linking commercial banks to village level financial associations
    • Moldova
  • Leasing
    • Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Romania, Pakistan, Uganda, Madagascar
  • Restructuring of State-Owned Agricultural Banks
    • Mongolia, Tanzania, Latvia
  • Product Offerings
    • Develop loan products appropriate for specific purposes (short-term, group loans, longer-term flexible agricultural loans)
    • Simple and easily accessible savings products
    • insurance products
  • Creating Effective Demand
    • Matching grants for asset creation
    • Offer of savings facilities to create equity
    • Support all along the supply chain
slide52
The livestock Revolution is underway with increasing consumption of livestock products, and consequent problems
  • Spatial concentration of livestock around urban areas has led to:
    • Large areas with Nitrogen and Phosphate overloads, causing water and air pollution
    • Closer contact between men and livestock causing emergence of new diseases (Avian Flu)
    • Large population of highly vulnerable livestock (Foot and Mouth Disease)
  • Exacerbated by weak enforcement of environmental and health regulations, and non-vaccination

Proposed actions

  • At global level:
    • Increase awareness of environmental and public health issues, stressing global public good element, and interest of developed countries in protecting their own livestock from diseases spilling over from developing countries
    • Strengthen international disease alert systems and explore alternative disease control systems
  • At national level
    • Develop planning, regulatory and incentive systems, which bring livestock production more in line with absorptive capacity of surrounding eco-systems
    • Strengthen veterinary services, emergency preparedness
land degradation continues despite donor and government investment
Land degradation continues despite donor and government investment
  • Land degradation problem is severe and growing with negative impacts on productive lands and ecosystem services.
  • Climate change is likely to severely reduce land and water productivity in many countries (especially Africa) and result in further land degradation.
  • Significant “practice gap” and huge scope to apply existing “best practice” to address land management problems in all regions.
  • Lack of land ownership, poor access to knowledge and lack of appropriate incentives are major factors constraining best practice uptake.
  • Make rehabilitation of degraded lands a poverty reduction priority and introduce land rehab projects
  • Develop and implement innovative knowledge (best practice) dissemination mechanisms for land users and policy makers.
  • Develop and implement incentives for good land management such as payments for ecosystem services (e.g. carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation) to facilitate uptake of best practices and to promote synergies with adaptation to climate change, biodiversity conservation, and watershed resilience to environmental and economic shocks
  • Introduce land administration projects more widely
summary of corporate priorities in the three sectors
SUMMARY of Corporate Priorities in the three sectors
  • Promote market driven development
    • Trade Liberalization and agricultural subsidy reduction
    • Introduce an enabling agriculture policy and regulatory environment (including standards setting) for private invest
    • Targeted support for private sector and market development; through entire market chain, up to supermarkets; build demand side
    • Work more effectively with IFC agro-business and forest teams as well as the private sector and other donors
  • Empower rural people, including farmers
    • Land security and redistribution (community based land reform, land registration and titling)
    • Decentralized and accountable public services (ICT, regulatory)
    • Capacity building for local groups and farmer organizations (WUAs, herders associations, trade associations)
    • Reducing risk and vulnerability for farmers and the supply chain broadly
    • Nutrition and household food security
    • Rural finance
    • Invest in activities which create off-farm rural work (agro industry, agricultural services, rural infrastructure
priorities continued
Priorities continued
  • Develop water resource management strategies at country, basin, and project levels. Expand new style irrigation and drainage, and rural water investments; including efficiency of water use, env. and social concerns, private investment in water
  • Invest in infrastructure, education, rural energy, and health through public-private partnerships
  • Support international agriculture research through CGIAR and other partners, and in partnership with NARs. Pluralism, competition, contracting, demand driven
  • Sustainable management (and recovery) of land resources
  • Forestry – Continue protected area targets, expand forest certification, pursue good logging practices, incorporate forest concerns in development policy lending, and pursue forest law enforcement; expand IFC involvement
  • Implement the new fisheries strategy (conservation of ocean fisheries and coastal marines, support small scale local fisheries, develop aqua-culture
world bank corporate challenges in agriculture and rural development
World Bank Corporate Challenges in Agriculture and Rural Development
  • Further progress needed in getting agriculture, rural development, forests onto the bigger donor agenda (PRSPs, CASs, PRSCs, lending program), particularly in Africa
  • Balancing multi-sector and development policy lending which includes RD; with sector investment
  • Use wider variety of instruments (grants, trust funds, other donors, NGOs, Global Programs, private sector)
  • Scale up better (we drop good projects at project completion)
  • Can we deliver an expanded lending agenda with stagnating staff levels in the agriculture and rural development family, and in partner organizations?
  • Agriculture, RD, forests and water could be a pilot for improved business planning for global programs. Can we operate like a Bank-wide product group, or will we continue to be fragmented into separate mini regional and anchor ARD groups?