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Scaling in Integrated Assessment: Understanding the Importance of Scale

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  1. Session 14.3 – Panel on: Scaling in Integrated Assessment Kasper Kok

  2. Background Rotmans, J & Rothman, D.S. (Eds.). 2003. Scaling in Integrated Assessment. Swets & Zeitlinger B.V., Lisse, the Netherlands. Based on an International Workshop: Scaling Issues in Integrated Assessment 12-19 July 2000, Mechelen, the Netherlands Organised by the International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS) Sponsored by the European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment (EIFEA) Second of so-called “Matrix” workshops addressed specific methodological topics relevant to IA.

  3. Scale and Integrated Assessment • Scale is at the heart of IA because: • IA addresses complex issues • IA involves a large range of scales (climate change!) • IA is multidisciplinary, including policy makers

  4. SCENE model Society Institutional Environment Economy

  5. Some definitions Level: Level of organization inherent to the system Also referred to as functional scale Scale: Level of observation With two components,temporal and spatial scale that both have two aspects, resolution and extent

  6. Functional scale or hierarchically nested levels +1 0 -1 Slow, large Focal level Fast, small

  7. Examples of functional scales Log time (years) Landscape Forest Stand century Tree decade Crown year months Branch Leaf days cm m 100m 100km Log space (meters)

  8. Spatial scale

  9. (Spatial) scale effect

  10. Scale and geography

  11. Correlation coffee and forest +1 + spatial resolution - -1

  12. Behaviour of society Behaviour of groups Individual behaviour Scale in Social Sciences

  13. Avoid confusion… Microeconomists’ definition of scale: “Increasing return to scale is an increase of inputs that results in a more than proportional increase of outputs.” Macroeconomy versus microeconomy

  14. Driving forces of LUCC

  15. Integration? individual village country watersheds AEZ household country

  16. Scaling in Integrated Assessment Problems Why does scale matter? -- Wilbanks Scale in social sciences -- Evans Scale in economics -- Jaeger, Van der Veen Solutions Strategic Cyclical Scaling -- Root and Schneider The Syndrome Approach -- Schellnhuber, Petschel-Held ABMS and participation -- Pahl-Wostl Integration Emergent properties -- Easterling Hierachy Theory and Holons -- Giampietro Transition (management) -- Rotmans Other Multi-scale scenarios -- Kok

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