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The Next Really Big Enormous Thing

The Next Really Big Enormous Thing. Robin Hanson Department of Economics George Mason University. Calvin & Hobbes. Outline. We can see future, if understand past Need tech & econ, may not profit much Long term history – the very big picture Brains, hunting, farming, industry, ?

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The Next Really Big Enormous Thing

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  1. The Next Really Big Enormous Thing Robin Hanson Department of Economics George Mason University

  2. Calvin & Hobbes

  3. Outline • We can see future, if understand past • Need tech & econ, may not profit much • Long term history – the very big picture • Brains, hunting, farming, industry, ? • What makes economies grow? • What could make it grow much faster? • Space, fusion, nanotech, net, A.I., uploads

  4. Internet Hosts

  5. Lots ofTechs Explode

  6. US GDP Change, 1947-2000 2 year moving average

  7. US GDP, 1929 – 2000

  8. World Product, 1930-2000

  9. World Product, 1-2000

  10. World Product, 10K BC-2K AD

  11. World Product, 2 Million BC+

  12. World Product, Log/Log

  13. World Product Growth Rate Could It Happen Again? Industry Farming Hunting Brains

  14. The Next EnormousThing? Growth in 5 years Growth in last 2 million years

  15. Growth Mode Statistics

  16. What Can Make Fast Growth? • Space? • Fusion? • Nanotechnology? • Internet? • Artificial Intelligence? • Uploads?

  17. Industry Shares of US GDP

  18. Factor Shares of Income

  19. Knowledge Was Always Key

  20. Space

  21. Fusion

  22. Nanotechnology

  23. Internet Hosts

  24. Artificial Intelligence

  25. Human Intelligence

  26. HAL for cheap?

  27. Human Advantage Various Mental Tasks A Rising Tide Crowds Land

  28. Uploading http://www.cacr.caltech.edu/Publications/annreps/annrep92/schutt.html

  29. Upload Implications • Identity crises, but brave few enough • More ability variety; fast/slow, gods/? • Cheap immortality, travel, tech transfer • Cheap copies • Malthusian population explosion • Subsistence wages, select for tolerant? • Fast growth - most factors on Moore’s Law • Non-uploaded humans rich if diversified

  30. Sharing Info Via Idea Futures • Humans now bad at info aggregation • Agree to disagree, even on big issues • Limit to expert net wastes much • Betting market odds do very well • Incentive to correct mistakes, shut up • Can estimate consequences of choice • “Company value if make product, vs. not” • Could even make new form of government

  31. Summary • Long term history – the very big picture • Can understand, if know economics & tech • Brains, hunting, farming, industry,? • What could make it grow much faster? • Must effect most industries & factors • Unlikely: space, fusion, nanotech, internet • More likely: A.I., uploads, big implications

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