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Impact of Terrorist Attacks on Transcontinental Flight Capacity

Explore how terrorist attacks post-9/11 have jeopardized transcontinental travel, heightened security concerns, and reshaped airport vulnerabilities. Discover potential mitigations and the critical need for predictive measures.

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Impact of Terrorist Attacks on Transcontinental Flight Capacity

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  1. Transcontinental Flight Capacity Peter Cerussi Michael Gerson

  2. Backstory • Effects of Sept 11, 2001 • Shook America to it’s core • Demonstrated vulnerabilities to attack • Changed airport security procedures • The airports are still vulnerable… • Americans consider flight as a symbol of freedom • Terrorist want to deny transcontinental travel M

  3. Problem Statement • How does the loss of an airport or airports effect the ability of the airlines to move people across country? M

  4. Nodes M

  5. Start Nodes M

  6. End Nodes M

  7. Example of Edges M

  8. Example of Capacity 1 1 3 2 1 2 M

  9. Data • Department of Transportation • Bureau of Transportation Statistics • Amount of flights per month • Divided by 31 for average daily flights P

  10. Example of an Attack 1 1 3 2 1 2 P

  11. Nodal Statistics Transcontinental Capacity: 1110 BOS SEA MSP JFK DEN ORD T SFO S IAD HOU SLC LAX ATL DFW End Nodes: Total flights: 3415 Start Nodes: Total flights: 1894 Largest Airports Atlanta 568 Chicago 501 Los Angeles 463 Denver 453 Phoenix 440 Dallas 421 Las Vegas 375 Houston 299 P

  12. Attacking Transcontinental Travel • Terrorist attack transcontinental travel 440 440 ∞ S E M P

  13. Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M

  14. Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M

  15. Comparative Results Largest Airports Attacked Airports Los Angeles 463 San Francisco 276 Seattle 211 San Diego 202 Phoenix 440 Las Vegas 375 Denver 453 Salt Lake City 219 • Atlanta 568 • Chicago 501 • Los Angeles463 • Denver 453 • Phoenix 440 • Dallas 421 • Las Vegas 375 • Houston 299 M

  16. Operator Resilience Curve M

  17. FBI Involvement • The initial plan is to attack the west coast • FBI was alerted to the plan and intervenes • Resource restrictions are limited to four nodes • The four largest nodes are protected • Seattle • San Francisco • Los Angeles • San Diego P

  18. FBI Involvement Destroy P

  19. FBI Involvement Destroy P

  20. Comparative Results Largest Airports Attacked Airports Phoenix 463 Las Vegas 276 Denver 211 Dallas 202 Houston 440 New York 375 Atlanta 453 • Atlanta 568 • Chicago 501 • Los Angeles463 • Denver 453 • Phoenix 440 • Dallas 421 • Las Vegas 375 • Houston 299 P

  21. Comparative OR Curve P

  22. New Assumption • Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers 440 440 ∞ S E M

  23. Nodal Statistics Transcontinental Capacity: 480 BOS SEA MSP JFK DEN ORD T S SFO IAD HOU SLC LAX ATL DFW End Nodes: Total flights: 3415 Start Nodes: Total flights: 1894 Largest Airports Atlanta 568 Chicago 501 Los Angeles 463 Denver 453 Phoenix 440 Dallas 421 Las Vegas 375 Houston 299 M

  24. Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M

  25. Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M

  26. Operator Resilience Curve 0% M

  27. New Assumption • Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers • Attacks degrade airports • If attacked airports capacity is 50% • A second attack and the airport is destroyed M1 220 ∞ 440 440 S E 220 ∞ M2 P

  28. Attacking Transcontinental Travel Degrade Destroy P

  29. Attacking Transcontinental Travel P

  30. Operator Resilience Curve 2 0% P

  31. New Assumption • Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers • Attacks degrade airports • If attacked airports capacity is 20% • A second attack and the airport is destroyed M1 352 ∞ 440 440 S E 88 ∞ M2 M P

  32. Attacking Transcontinental Travel M

  33. Attacking Transcontinental Travel M

  34. Operator Resilience Curve 3 0% M

  35. Conclusion • If there is terrorist chatter regarding attacks on transcontinental travel, authorities can predict the location of the attacks • If there is terrorist chatter regarding attacks on the west coast, authorities should be prepared for significant lose in transcontinental travel • Airports should be designed such that they are difficult to completely destroy P

  36. Follow-Implementations • Change the start and end airports • Adjust the damage levels • Adjust the number of attacks per airport • Add additional nodes

  37. Questions Transcontinental Flight Capacity Peter Cerussi Michael Gerson P

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