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SOME LRF Activities in south africa

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This document outlines various activities related to multi-model forecasting in South Africa, focusing on objective and subjective consensus forecasts for the periods of November, December, and January during the 2009/10 season. It details the components of the Atmospheric Modelling Strategic Initiative (AMSI), including climate change projections, high-resolution weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting. Key topics include seamless forecasting methodologies, advancements in cube-based models, operational forecasting development, and collaborative efforts across institutions to enhance prediction accuracy.

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SOME LRF Activities in south africa

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  1. Willem A. Landman SOME LRF Activities in south africa

  2. Objective multi-model forecast Subjective consensus forecast

  3. November-DECEMBER-January 2009/10

  4. Weather and Climate Modelling at the NRE Atmospheric Modelling Strategic Initiative (AMSI) Component 3 Climate Change Projections (Decadal and multi-decadal) Component 1 High-resolution Weather Forecasting (1-10 days) Component 2 Long-Range Forecasting (Weeks to months) Component 4 Model Development Operational Forecasting SEAMLESS FORECASTING: Using common forecast systems to predict for multiple time scales

  5. 50 km 15 km

  6. recent seasonal forecasts

  7. NEW & Future products Nudging: 200 – 50 – 15 km

  8. Cube-based AGCM VCAM - CSIRO Coupling (CSIR) Cube-based OGCM (JAMSTEC) Three-way collaborative agreement being compiled A new cube-based coupled GCM: VCM University of Tokyo Climate Model (to be installed on multi-processor machine at CSIR) JAMSTEC (SINTEX-F)

  9. Forecast verification Further optimizing of MOS forecasts for SADC Seamless systems for intra-seasonal characteristics Optimized global SST forecasts Multi-institutional multi-model forecasts Investing in coupled models for operational forecasting What next...?

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