Bernd Weiß Ina Berninger Michael Wagner

1. On the links between unemployment, partnership stability and the intention to have a first child:The case of Germany Bernd Weiß Ina Berninger Michael Wagner University of Cologne

2. Problem • The Problem: • Does unemployment affect the intention to have a first child? • Background: • Effects of greater job insecurity (fix-term contracts, part-time employment, unemployment) on family formation • Understanding the causal mechanism that result in partnership instability • Previous research: • Some studies report a positive effect of income on the intention of having a child (Balbo 2009; Eckhard/Klein 2006), • for women a negative effect seems to exist (Eckhard/Klein 2006), • another study found no significant association between unemployment and the intention of having a child (Pailhé 2009).

3. Two theoretical approaches • The microeconomic approach: • fertility intention is a result of a rational decision process about the costs and benefits of a child [direct effect] • The microsociological approach: • employment influences the intention to have child via the conflicts within and the stability of a partnership [indirect effect]

4. The microeconomic approach • Families produce „commodities“ (= goods that directly provide utility and satisfaction and that cannot be purchased, e.g. children, health) • Commodities have a shadow price which is the price of necessary goods and the lost wage of spending time outside the market (opportunity costs) • Labour division within a household is efficient. Especially in Germany, the male partner is still the main provider of family income. • Hypotheses: • If a man is unemployed, the less likely is his intention to have a first child. • If a woman is unemployed, the more likely is her intention to have a first child. University of Cologne

5. The microsociological approach I • Social stress theory, family stress model (Conger/Rueter/Elder 1999) • Spillover effect: Couples experiencing economic pressure or difficulties may become frustrated, angry and emotionally troubled. • Hypothesis: Unemployment increases the level of conflict about financial issues in a partnership and leads to more aggressiveconflict behaviour. As the male partner is often the main provider of family income we assume that his unemployment has more serious consequences for the conflict level and conflict behaviour than for the female partner.   University of Cologne

6. The microsociological approach II • Exchange theory (Lewis and Spanier 1979) and the Vulnerability-Stress-Adaptation Model of Marriage (Karney and Bradbury 1995) • The higher the level of conflict about financial issues, the higher the subjective instability of a partnership. • Aggressive conflict behaviour increases the level of conflict about financial issues in a partnership. University of Cologne 6

7. The microsociological approach III • Partnership stability and childbearing intention • Uncertainty reduction theory (Friedman, Hechter and Kanazawa 1994): Couples have children because the birth of a child increases solidarity and reduces uncertainty in a partnership. • Opposite hypothesis is more realistic: happily married couples are more likely to have a child than unhappily married couples. One reason for that is that people want their children to grow up in a favourable environment. • Hypothesis: Respondent’s partnership subjective instability affects the intention to have a first child positively. University of Cologne

8. Causal links between unemployment and the intention to have a first child University of Cologne 8

9. Data and Methods • German Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), conducted in 2005 • Target population: German-speaking respondents at the ages of 18 to 79 years who live in private households in Germany • The GGS: multi-stage sampling design. • Overall, 10.017 face-to-face interviews were implemented and the response rate is about 55% (see Ruckdeschel 2006) • We selected a subgroup of respondents • Respondents living in a heterosexual and cohabiting partnership • Respondents without own children, stepchildren, adopted children or children in care. • Respondents in partnerships with a female partner who is not pregnant or older than 45 years. • Respondents are currently in the labour market or unemployed. • Due to these restrictions the sample size decreased to 533 persons.

10. Measurements • Intention having a child: • Respondents were asked about their current intention to have a child. Possible answering categories were „yes“ (1), „no“ (0), „do not know“ and „refused“. • „Refused“ (1%) and „do not know“ (7%) are considered to be missing values. • About 35% of all respondents (men: 30%; women 41%) intend to have a first child. University of Cologne

11. Missing data • Some variables suffer from missing data (e.g. partner’s employment stats 14%, aggressive conflict behaviour 13%), • In our case the so-called multiple imputation (MI) approach to deal with missing data problem is recommended • Path models are estimated with Mplus that uses the multiple imputation method. However, in Mplus the full-information maximum likelihood (FIML) is the default option. University of Cologne

12. Direct effect Total indirect effect Path model for intention to have a first child (women, FIML) ***: p ≤ 0.01; **: p ≤ 0.05; *: p ≤ 0.10 (one-tailed)

13. Direct effect Total indirect effect Path model for intention to have a first child (men, FIML) ***: p ≤ 0.01; **: p ≤ 0.05; *: p ≤ 0.10 (one-tailed)

14. Path model for intention to have a first child (women, MI) ***: p ≤ 0.01; **: p ≤ 0.05; *: p ≤ 0.10 (one-tailed)

15. Path model for intention to have a first child (men, MI) ***: p ≤ 0.01; **: p ≤ 0.05; *: p ≤ 0.10 (one-tailed)

16. Results • No support for the microeconomic theory: No direct effect of being unemployed on the intention to have a child.

17. Results Support for the microsociological approach At least for men there exists a significant negative indirect effect Gender-specific associations between unemployment and frequency of conflicts as well as aggressive behaviour Male respondent’s aggressive conflict behaviour is determined by their own unemployment. Women’s perception of financial conflicts as well as their own aggressive conflict behaviour is determined by their partner’s unemployment. Women’s unemployment does not have any consequences on couple’s interactional behaviour, whereas men’s unemployment is negatively related to their own as well as to their partner’s behaviour. The intention to have a first child is positively related to subjective partnership stability.