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Transformative Scenarios Looking to the future of civil society and philanthropy. Mille Bojer, Reos André Degenszajn , GIFE Janaina Jatobá, Instituto C&A . WINGS Forum 2014 Istanbul, Turkey . São Paulo , Brazil. June 27, 2013. Objectives for this session.

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Transformative Scenarios Looking to the future of civil society and philanthropy


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TransformativeScenariosLookingtothe future of civil societyandphilanthropy

Mille Bojer, Reos

André Degenszajn, GIFE

Janaina Jatobá, Instituto C&A

WINGS Forum 2014Istanbul, Turkey

São Paulo, Brazil

June 27, 2013

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Objectives for this session

Tounderstandhowtransformativescenarioscanbeusedto help articulate paths for civil societyandtoharnessthepowerof networks

Tosharetwostoriesand explore whatwecanlearnfromthemaboutthesituationof civil society in South AfricaandBrazil

To start a dialogue aboutthevalueofscenariothinking in philanthhropy

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Warmup:

“If you could speak to a clairvoyant about the future of civil society in your country, what question would you most like to ask them?”

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What are

transformative

scenarios?

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Scenarios:

“…structured, well considered stories describing a small set of possible future contexts and how they might come about.”

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Stories of possible futures that are:

    • Relevant
  • IlluminatecurrentcircumstancesandconcernsLink intocurrent mental models
  • Challenging
  • Maketheinvisiblevisible
  • Questioncurrent mental models
  • Plausible
  • Fact-basedandlogical
  • Improve systemicunderstanding
  • Clear
  • Distinct
  • Accessibleandmemorable

Predictions

Projections

Preferences

Options

five steps
Five steps

1. Convene a teamfromthewhole system

5. Acttotransform

the system

2. Observe what is happening

4. Discover what can and must be done

3. Create the stories that need to be told

Source: Kahane

how transformative scenarios work
How transformative scenarios work

Our understanding

Our language

They transform

Our relationships

Our intentions

Our actions

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Dinokeng Scenarios

Collectively constructing a sustainable future for South Africa

REOS INSTITUTE 2013 SCENARIOS CASE STUDY SERIES

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The Context in 2009

  • Seismic political shifts, with Jacob Zuma assuming the presidency in 2009. A time marked by uncertainty, power struggle and political reshuffling within the ANC.
  • World in the midst of economic crisis, sending tremors through the local economy
  • Large-scale migration from the neighbouring state of Zimbabwe and other countries in the region, and xenophobic attacks across the stressed area.
  • The effects of climate change and economic crisis placing increasing pressure on agricultural production, rural sustainability, and food security.
  • Unacceptably high levels of crime.
  • The realities of constructing a new nation had revealed themselves as an entirely grittier and more complex task than its people had anticipated.
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The Scenarios

Engaged

WALK TOGETHER

CHARACTER OF CIVIL SOCIETY

2020

Collaborative and enabling state.

Engaged and active citizenry

CAPACITY OF THE STATE

Innefective

Effective

Corrupt and inefecttive state.

Distrusting and self-

protective citizenry

Interventionist and directive state.

Dependent and compliant citizenry..

2009

2020

2020

WALK BEHIND

WALK APART

Disengaged

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The Impact

  • Placed the simple, crucial “Walk Together” insight about citizen re-engagement into the center of South African discourse. Example: The essence of the plan for the country prepared by the National Planning Commission, set up in 2010, focuses on engaging an active citizenry, promoting leadership through every aspect of society, and building a capable state.
  • Crystallized a core debate among South African leaders about the role that the state should play in national development.
  • Members of the Dinokeng team expanded their shared understanding of their situation and of their roles in it. They helped their system get unstuck and move forward.
  • The large-scale dissemination of the Dinokeng scenarios was intended to regenerate active participation by South Africans in their new democracy. Dinokeng contributed to opening up and strengthening the country’s politics and its capacity to deal with its challenges.
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Civil Society 2023: 

Four futures for Brazilian Civil Society 

In 2013, Reos entered into partnership with the D3 Articulation for Democracy, Dialogue and Rights and the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic to co-convene a transformative scenarios process on the future of civil society in Brazil, labeled “Civil Society 2023”.

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Context for the Brazilian Civil Society Scenarios

Whatisthecurrent reality of Civil Society in Brazil?

Whatwerethe big uncertainties in 2013?

What big questionswerewe holding aboutthe future?

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The Impact so far

Individual level: Shift in perspective, new actions

Organizationallevel: Incorporationintostrategicplanning processes, impactonleaders,

Field level: Placingvalueon civil society, offering a new languageandspecificrisksandopportunities, creationof a network, new partnershipsamongparticipatingorganizations; disseminationnationallyandinternationally

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Questions, comments, reflections

“How is this all relevant to your context?”

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For more information:

www.reospartners.com

bojer@reospartners.com

www.dinokengscenarios.co.za

www.sociedadecivil2023.org.br

Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future by Adam Kahane (Berrett-Koehler, 2012). Available from Amazon.