Presentation Transcript

1. I’m Not a Warmist!Transcending Ideological Barriers to Climate Change Communication Scott Denning Director of Education, CMMAP Monfort Prof. Atmospheric Science, CSU Email Scott.Denning@ColoState.edufor a copy of this presentation
2. “Scientists are necessary, but not sufficient to solve the climate problem” Dr. Ralph Cicerone, President of the National Academy of Science, November 2007
3. Six Americas Leiserowitz, Maibach & Roser-Renouf (2008) Global Warming’s Six Americas: An Audience Segmentation
4. Climate Change Messaging Climate is changing Humans are causing it Scientists agree
5. Careful! I’m just a climate scientist who talks to a lot of public audiences The three-part message has been developed & tested by smart people … social scientists and communications professionals who know way more about public opinion than I do But my personal sense and experience is that the party-line message is weak and often ineffective
6. What’s wrong with this message? On the face of it, nothing. Each statement is factually correct The message has been crafted to emphasize immediacy, agency, and trust Changing Humans Consensus The message is aimed squarely at the “persuadable middle”
7. What’s wrong with this message?Look at each piece: “Climate is changing” But honestly, not very fast CO2 has only risen about 35% since 1800, and global mean surface temperature has warmed enough to detect Message encourages “ambulance chasing” If China & India build modern economies with coal, expect 300% increase by 2100! You ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
8. What’s wrong with this message?Look at each piece: “Humans are the cause” Very counter-intuitive! Feels like hubris! Taps into a deep cultural foundation of “guilt and penance” or “sin and retribution” (lots of baggage!) Common reaction is either a furrowed brow or a knowing smile … why?
9. What’s wrong with this message?Look at each piece: “Scientists agree” Again, factually correct This is why we’re supposed to believe #2 “You’re too dumb to figure it out” “Trust me, I’m a scientist …” OK. Science is not an opinion poll Do scientists have ulterior motives?
10. Cultural Identity vsScience Literacy “Science Comprehension Thesis” fails miserably! “The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks.” D.M. Kahan, E. Peters, M. Wittlin, P. Slovic, L.L. Ouellette, D. Braman & G. Mandel. Nature Climate Change(2012) doi:10.1038/nclimate1547
11. Elephants and riders Flavors of morality Belonging The rider evolved to serve the elephant!
12. If you want to change somebody’s beliefs, talk to their elephant!
13. Taste Buds People have 4 or 5 different kinds of taste buds for different flavors
14. Flavors of Morality Traditional societies Western industrialized societies Team Blue Team Red Care vs harm Liberty vs oppression Fairness vs cheating Authority vs subversion Loyalty vs betrayal Sanctity vs degradation
15. Flavors of Morality Based on survey data N > 132,000 Take survey at YourMorals.org J. Haidt (2007) The New Synthesis in Moral Psychology, Science 316, 998
16. In Less Than 1 Second Your elephant can tell which side I’m on Elephants move toward, or away Your conscious mind (rider) can begin explaining why you support or oppose me
17. “There are two kinds of people in the world … “Those who believe there are two kinds of people in the world … view politics as a meaningful struggle between opposing views support policies as a “package” associated with their “team” … and those who don’t!” support policies based on a careful & rational weighing of factual evidence
18. Left and Right Agree? Before society decides what to do about climate change, we need to decide how much our civilization values Liberty, Free markets, Progress Central authorityvs local control The public good vs the private good Uh oh! Wars have been fought over these questions since the time of Ancient Greece and probably before! Maybe we really are screwed?
19. Alternatively … Climate Change: Simple Serious Solvable
20. Simple
21. Global Warming is Based on Common Sensenot computer models …not recent temperatures …not complicated!
22. Ever Wonder Why? Day is warmer than night Summer is warmer than winter Miami is warmer than Minneapolis
23. Heat Budgets Heat in Heat out Heat in Heat out
24. People aren’t warming the climate …Heat is warming the climate!
25. Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays! N O O N Nearly all of the air is made of oxygen (O2) and nitrogen (N2) in which two atoms of the same element share electrons Infrared (heat) energy radiated up from the surface can be absorbed by these molecules, but not very well Diatomic molecules can vibrate back and forth like balls on a spring, but the ends are identical
26. Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays! C O O H O H Carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O) are different! They have many more ways to vibrate and rotate, so they are very good at absorbing and emitting infrared (heat) radiation Molecules that have many ways to wiggle are called “Greenhouse” molecules Absorption spectrum of CO2 was measured by John Tyndall in 1863
27. CO2 Emits Heat Because of its molecular structure! Not because capitalism is evil Not to punish greedy rich people It’s just bad luck!
28. Common Sense John Tyndall, January 1863 1 m Doubling CO2 would add 4 watts to every square meter of the surface of the Earth, 24/7 Doing that would make the surface warmer This was known before light bulbs were invented! 4 Watts 1 m
29. Common Myth #1 “Scientists expect a warmer future because it’s been warming up recently” WRONG! It’s because we know that when we add heat to things, they warm up
30. Serious
31. Shanghai, China 1990
32. Shanghai, China 2012
33. Billions and Billions There are currently 7 billion people, but Only 1 billion of us use a lot of energy There are 3 billion people in China and India who will soon use energy like us Population will increase by 30% in the 21st Century, but energy use will increase by more than 300%
34. How much warmer? Low Emissions Landvs ocean! Northvs South Global mean warming of 2º to 5º C North Americanwarming of 3º to 6º C = 5º to 11º F Moderate Emissions High Emissions Rainfall? Agriculture? Water supply? Real estate? Displaced people?
35. Whereis it 10°F Warmer “on average?” Denver  Amarillo Illinois Mississippi WashingtonTallahassee Water? Crops? Real Estate? Health?
36. Wildfire
37. 656% 656%
38. CoastalFlooding Small floods are common, big floods are rare Rockaway Beach, NYC 12 Sea level rise shifts the line up What was a 100-year flood becomes a 10-year flood! 9 height above sea level (feet) 6 flooded subway system 3 10 100 1000 how often (years)
39. For How Long? If China and India industrialize with coal, CO2 will rise to 4x preindustrial Extra CO2 will last for centuries after coal is gone CO2 CO2 (ppm) Warming (Celsius) warming you are here GtC/yr year The heck with Polar Bears … what would that do to cities?
40. Eventually http://www.freetech4teachers.com/2013/09/an-interactive-map-of-rising-sea-levels.html
41. Solvable
42. Solutions To provide a decent standard of living for billions of people on Earth We must be able to generate huge amounts of energy without releasing CO2 This is definitely do-able (as an engineering task) … … but expensive and politically difficult Can’t do it by “tinkering around the edges” Will require profound changes to energy and economics
43. Historical Emissions Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16 Historical emissions 8 0 1950 2000 2050 2100
44. The “Stabilization Triangle” Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Current path = “ramp” 16 Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal Historical emissions 8 Flat path 1.6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100
45. “Stabilization Wedges” Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16 GtC/y Current path = “ramp” 16 Eight “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today Historical emissions 8 Flat path 1.6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 http://www.princeton.edu/wedges/
46. Nuclear Fission (1) Solved! Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) 18 GtC/y Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Fuel Switching (1) Stabilization Stabilization Triangle Triangle CO2 Capture & Storage (3) 10 GtC/y Forest and Soil Storage (2) 2013 2063 See earlier presentations for details!
47. Efficient Architects! $4.5 TRILLION
48. Costs Conversion to 100% noncarbon energy will cost about 1% of GDP That’s about what it cost to retrofit all the world’s cities with indoor plumbing a century ago … It was worth it!
49. Imagine it’s 1800, and you’re in charge … Somebody presents you with a grand idea for transforming the world economy: Dig 10 billion tons of carbon out of the ground every year Build a system of pipelines, supertankers, railroads, highways, and trucks to deliver it to every street corner on the planet Build millions of cars every year, and millions of miles of roads to drive them on Generate and pipe enough electricity to every house to power lights & stereos & plasma TVs … “and here’s the itemized bill …”
50. Who Built That? Our ancestors built that very system It cost them every dime of global GDP for 200 years (now $72T/yr) It created every dime too! Now our kids get to do it again!
51. Choose Your Future Some people think: “Our modern lifestyle is only possible because of the subsidy of cheap fossil fuel. When we stop burning coal we’ll freeze in the dark!” I prefer: “Our well-being depends on creativity and hard work. Before we run out of oil, we’lldeploy energy technologies for the 21st Century. Our future is bright.”