2012 Presidential Poll Kenya Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi Samburu Room January 12 2012

2. 2012 Presidential Poll Kenya Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi Samburu Room January 12 2012

3. Introduction • The survey was necessitated by the coming General election in 2012 • The survey sort to establish the Presidential candidate’s popularity • The polls were conducted in countrywide on Monday 12th December 2012 and Monday 2rd of January 2012. • The sample size considered was 2300 out of which 94% turned out to be registered voters

4. The respondents were proportionally distributed in majority of counties with respect to the population and geographical location. • The questionnaire captured different issues with sub issues that are compared in these surveys • The survey was sponsored by ISS Africa in partnership with CPR International. • Random sampling and quota sampling methods were employed

5. The degree of confidence was 99% for the survey results. • The survey calculated margin of error of +/-3% • The response rate was 98% for the questionnaires administered

6. Objectives of the Survey • Presidential candidates popularity, strengths and weakness • Political party popularity in the country and at the county level.

7. Analysis by Sample

8. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi SAMPLING BY GENDER • Most approachable gender in terms of politics is male. • Females are a bit conservative in terms of politics.

9. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi SAMPLING BY AGE • This data can be interpreted to mean that majority of the respondents or population are youthful and hence as indicated by the registered voters from IEBC young people will have the say in the coming general election.

10. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi SAMPLING BY VOTER’S CARD • Validation point of this survey and the finding of the survey can be considered the opinion of the registered voters largely

11. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi SAMPLING BY RELIGION

12. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi SAMPLING BY EMPLOYMENT • Majority of the respondents were self employed. • The unemployed rate is high at 26.8 % this shows that unemployment needs to be tackled seriously as an entity

13. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi SAMPLING BY POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT • This shows that the awareness level of this country is high and hence a presidential candidates should tackle real issues in the upcoming campaigns rather than dwell on propagandas’.

14. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi SAMPLING BY VOTING IN GENERAL ELECTIONS • This question tends most of the times to be MISREPRESENTED as its shows the willingness to vote rather than the actual people who will vote. • This is so largely by the fact that people are held up by other “Important” engagements.

15. REASON FOR NOT VOTING OTHER ASPIRANTS ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi

16. Analysis by Regions

17. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi POPULAR CANDIDATE – NAIROBI

18. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, NairobiPOPULAR CANDIDATE - CENTRAL

19. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi POPULAR CANDIDATE – RIFTVALLEY

20. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi POPULAR CANDIDATE – WESTERN

21. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi POPULAR CANDIDATE – EASTERN

22. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi POPULAR CANDIDATE – NYANZA

23. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi POPULAR CANDIDATE – COAST

24. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi POPULAR CANDIDATE – NORTH EASTERN

25. National Average

26. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi POPULAR POLITICAL PARTY

27. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi Political Parties to watch..

28. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi NATIONAL POPULARITY

29. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi NATIONAL POPULARITY • Turning out to be a 2 Horse Race • RAILA ODINGA Losing Ground why? • MIGUNA MIGUNA ISSUE • ODM ELECTION WRANGLES • UHURU KENYATTA – Gaining ground, why? • STRONG RECOVERY FOR SHILLING • HAGUE SYMPATHY • REVAMPING OF KANU

30. ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012 Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi The gains and losses

31. ThankYou