Labor Market, Gender and Armed Conflict in Tajikistan

Labor Market, Gender and Armed Conflict in Tajikistan Olga Shemyakina Georgia Institute of Technology World Bank Washington, D.C. June 10th, 2010

1. Motivation • Little research has been done on the gender level impacts of armed conflicts • Recent research finds that young adults who were of school age during the conflict lost years of education and working experience • (Blattman and Annan, forthcoming; Shemyakina, forthcoming; Akbulut-Yuksel 2009) • Question: • How such losses affect labor market experiences of these adults once the war is over? • Gender-differentiated analysis

War: 1992-1993, armed conflict 1993-1998.

1. Main findings: education and labor market • In the conflict affected areas • Young women who were of school age during the war were less likely to complete 9 (incomplete secondary degree) and also 11 (complete secondary degree) grades of schooling or more • Such women are also more likely to have worked in the last 14 days • However, no significant impact of the joint effect of conflict and being of school age during the war on wages has not been found

2. Main findings: Time-use on household chores by women • Women report spending on average as much as 60 hours per week on household duties • The bulk of time goes into kitchen work, cleaning the house and taking care of the kids • Married and widowed women tend to spend more time on household chores than single women • No significant differences between areas significantly and lesser affected by the conflict

Relevant literature: Education studies • Cross-country differences in aggregate enrollment rates in developing and developed countries • (Stewart, Huang and Wang 2001) • Differences in educational attainment across birth cohorts and regions • (Merrouche 2006; Akresh and de Walque 2008; Shemyakina, forthcoming)

Relevant literature: labor market • The effects of military service on individual’s (mainly, men) earnings and use conscription rules to control for non-random selection into service (Angrist 1990; Angrist and Krueger 1994; Angrist 1998; Imbens and van der Klaauw 1995). • Meng and Gregory (2007) • study the impact of the Chinese Cultural Revolution on the earnings of cohort who lost a substantial number of years of education due to the Revolution. • They find that the earnings of the individuals who did not receive university degrees (but would have if were raised during a different period) were about 46-76 percent lower. • While a large number of individuals failed to obtain the high school certificate due to the Revolution, the earnings of such individuals were not significantly impacted. • Blattman and Annan (2009) find that child soldiers experienced a significant loss of years of education and labor market experience, which affected their employment outcomes later on.

Relevant literature: time-use studies • No research has been done on the conflict-affected countries • Katapa (1998-2001) explores the time-use over 14 days by unemployed female heads of households in Tanzania. • Women in general and widows in particular, spent more time in informal economic activities than household work.

2. Data

2. Data preview • Tajik Living Standards Measurement Surveys 2003 and 2007 • Key variables: • Dependent: • Number of grades completed: 0-11 years • Probability of completing: “9 or more” and “11 or more” years of schooling • “Worked in the last 14 days” • Wages received in the last 30 days: monetary and in-kind • Hours spent on household chores by women • Independent: • Residence in the conflict affected area, cohort dummies • Controls: • marital status, level of education; education level of mother and father

2. Household and Individual Data • 2003 and 2007 Tajik Living Standards Surveys (TLSS) • World Bank and State Statistical Agency of Tajikistan • Individual and household data • Cross sections • 3 modules • a household questionnaire, a community level questionnaire and a female questionnaire • Stratified by oblast (region) and rural and urban areas. 2 stage sampling • Sample size: • 2003 - 4,160 households (26,141 individuals) • 2007 – 4,644 households (28,957 individuals)

2. Conflict data • Conflict data • Based on extensive library research, content analysis: • local Tajik newspapers + international sources • Reports of Conflict Activity (RCA) • Equal to 1 if there were repeated reports of conflict activity in the district (raion) • Ex. shooting, population displacement, damage to property, violence against civilians, standoffs b/w armed forces, violent attacks • Frequency: Dushanbe, Khatlon, RRS, GBAO, Sugd • Losses: Khatlon, RRS, Dushanbe • War affected regions (war): • Khatlon, RRS, Dushanbe

3. Empirical Approach: OLS • Sijk is a dependent variable of interest (educational attainment or a specific labor market outcome). • Ki is a dummy variable indicating whether the individual i belongs to the young "exposed" cohort. • 1j is a fixed effect for the individual’s region of residence during schooling years. • 1k is a cohort of birth fixed effect. • Pj is the intensity of the conflict in the district of residence during schooling/ early adulthood. • Ci is a vector of individual-specific characteristics, such as education of parents, ethnicity, marital status and education level

Theoretical expectations: labor mkt • H1: Labor force participation in the areas affected by war by men (women) is higher (lower) • Impact of the conflict: decrease in employment opportunities and increase in unemployment rate due to destruction • 2 effects associated with high unemployment rate during the business cycle (Killingsworth 1983): • a “discouraged-worker effect” • The “added worker effect”

Theoretical expectations: labor mkt • H2:Labor force participation and hours supplied by men and women may increase (or are higher in the conflict affected areas) • Impact of the conflict: A decrease in the number of men due to deaths. • Women may have to enter the labor force in high numbers to substitute for the labor of men who were killed • Men of working age who stayed alive and live in the conflict affected areas can now demand a higher wage premium due to their scarcity. An increase in wages for men would increase their opportunity cost of leisure and thereby increase labor hours supplied in the market.

Theoretical expectations: labor mkt • H3: wages earned by individuals in the conflict affected areas are higher (lower) than wages earned by these in the lesser affected areas • Impact of the conflict: • i)A decrease in the number of men due to deaths • Women may have to enter the labor force in high numbers to substitute for the labor of men who were killed; an increased labor supply should lead to a decrease in women’s wages • Men of working age who stayed alive and live in the conflict affected areas can now demand a higher wage premium due to their scarcity. An increase in wages for men would increase their opportunity cost of leisure and thereby increase labor hours supplied in the market. • ii) destruction – can lead to lower (higher) wages • If industries were destroyed and not re-built – no opportunities in these regions • If there is a reconstruction going on, there may be a demand for skilled people

Basic statistics • Education impact • Grades completed • Labor market effects: • Employment in the last 14 days • Reasons why not employed or not looking for a job • Wages • Time-use by women

Fig.1.a – Average grades completed, (0-11) by gender, born in 1946-1990, war region by oblast. Data source: TLSS 2003.

Fig.1.b – Average grades completed, (0-11) by gender, born in 1946-1990, by RCA. Data source: TLSS 2003.

Fig.2.a – Average grades completed (0-11) for men and women born in 1946-1998, war region by oblast. Data source: TLSS 2007.

Fig. 2.b - Average grades completed (0-11) by RCA for men and women, born in 1946-1998. Data source: TLSS 2007.

Table 5a - Work status in the last 14 days by gender, birth cohort and residence in the conflict area. Age 22-49.

Table 5b - Main reason did not look for a job in the past 30 days? By gender, birth cohort and conflict affected area residence (oblast level). Age 22-49.

Fig.3.a - Percentage of total hours in household work spent on a household chore per week (Women, 15-49). (Total hours <169). Data source: TLSS (2007).

Fig. 3.b. - Average hours spent on a household chore in the last 7 days (Women, 15-49). (Total hours <169). Data source: TLSS (2007).

4. Regression Results

Table 1 - Determinants of number of grades of schooling completed (0-11). Cohorts 1966-1973, 1976-1985. Data source: TLSS 2003.

Table 2 – Determinants of completing 9 or 11 grades of education. Cohorts 1966-1973, 1976-1985. Data source: TLSS 2007.

Table 2 – cont-ed – Determinants of completing 9 or 11 grades of education. Cohorts 1966-1973, 1976-1985. Data source: TLSS 2007.

Table 6 – Dependent variable: “Worked in the last 14 days”, OLS regressions. Data source: TLSS 2007.

Table 7 – Dependent variable: “ln (wages in the last 30 days)”, OLS regressions. Data source: TLSS 2007.

Table 9 – Determinants of time-use by women in the last 7 days. Total hours spent on household chores are capped at 169. Data source: TLSS 2007.

5. Discussion

5. Summary • This study focused on the 2007 TLSS survey data to evaluate the gender level impacts of the 1992-1998 armed conflict in Tajikistan on education, labor market outcomes for men and women and the time-use by women. • The analysis is focused on these aged 22-49 in 2007.

5. Main findings: education • The results of preliminary OLS regressions suggest that conflict had significant and negative impact on educational attainment by women who lived in areas severely affected by conflict during their schooling years.

5. Main findings: labor market and time-use • Women in the conflict affected regions are more likely to have held a job in the last 14 days as compared to the rest of the sample. • The estimated coefficients on the interaction terms between the war exposure and birth cohort are particularly large and statistically significant for women born in 1970-1985. • Wages are similar for the conflict affected areas and lesser affected areas • No differences in hours spent on household chores across affected and non-affected regions • Mainly explained by marital status

5. Discussion • The results on education are similar for 2003 and 2007 • String negative impact for women • The higher labor market participation by women from younger cohorts may be explained by the substitution effect in local labor markets, where women replace men who died during the war or migrated. • No impact on wages • It is possible that all differences in wages are driven by differences in education across cohorts

5. Future work • Explore in more detail the data from 1999 and 2003 TLSS and compare the labor market outcomes over time. • Examine fertility for the young cohorts

Thank you!!!

Labor Market, Gender and Armed Conflict in Tajikistan