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Risk Aversion, Lay Risk Assessment and Oil Spill Externalities Andrea Bigano, Mariaester Cassinelli, Anil Markandya, Fabio Sferra . Introduction: the project. This research is part of the European integrated project NEEDS, aimed at improving on the ExternE results.

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Risk Aversion, Lay Risk Assessmentand Oil Spill Externalities Andrea Bigano, Mariaester Cassinelli,Anil Markandya, Fabio Sferra

introduction the project
Introduction: the project

This research is part of the European integrated project NEEDS, aimed at improving on the ExternE results.

  • Objective of the Research Stream: To assess the externalities associated with the extraction and transportation of energy.
  • Tasks:Assessment of Externalities Concerning the Extraction and Transport of oil (WP1), gas (WP2), electricity transmission (WP3), other energy vectors (WP4), transferability and uncertainties related to these externality assessments (WP5).
  • Main topics covered by WP1:
    • Oil supply and demand scenarios and their breakdown into import routes and to Europe;
    • Critical passages along the routes and the assessment of the risk; reduction potential due to developments in tanker technology and safety regulation;
    • Burdens and impacts related to the extraction and transportation of oil;
    • Assessment of probabilistic externalities related to the extraction and transportation of oil.
oil spill causes
Oil spill causes
  • Ship-related oil pollution is attributed mostly to operational discharges which have consistently overshadowed accidental discharges;
  • Less frequently, the cause of an oil spill from a tanker is an accidental event.

The case study focuses on groundings, collisions and structural failure & foundering as these are the most relevant causes for the Aegean Islands.

case study determination of impacts and damages
Case study : Determination of impacts and damages
  • Impacts considered:
    • Tourism
    • Fisheries
    • Natural Enviroment
  • Evaluation Methods:
    • Tourism and Fisheries: direct costs
    • Natural environment: CVM + value transfer
case study impacts on local economies stage 3
Case study : impacts on local economies – Stage 3

shore

Assumptions:

  • Population and workforce are evenly spread across each region;
  • Tourism and Fisheries will stop activities for a year (11 months) if affected;
  • Environmental damages are inferred from Bieryliet et al. (2006) using benefit transfer techniques;
  • The impacts will be more severe in the proximity of the spill. The area around the oil spill has been divided into three sub-areas, with increasing population and decreasing severity of the impacts:
case study conclusions
Case study : Conclusions
  • The value of this exercise is more in showing the feasibility of a more refined approach than in the actual numerical results.
  • Oil spill probabilities assessment is based on general, site–specific and even ship-specific causal factors. The general shape of the causal links that may lead to an oil spill can be portrayed, but case by case evaluation cannot be avoided.
  • On the other hand, introducing risk aversion and lay risk evaluation is a relatively simpler task, although careful calibration of the utility function is needed in order to arrive at realistic values.
  • Future work is needed to assess burdens, impacts and lay probabilities more carefully, and to examine more sites/routes to increase our understanding of accident costs of oil transportation by sea.
assessment of most critical passages on routes within europe
Assessment of most critical passages on routeswithin Europe
  • Sailing around a dangerous cape
  • Calling at a terminal
  • Waiting at anchor: Total 176 500 t spilled
    • Hamilton Trader, 1969, Liverpool Bay, Heavy crude, 700 t, ? ► Europe, Collided by other ship
    • Irenes Serenade, 1980, Pylos, Greece, Crude oil, 40 000 t, Irak ► Greece ?, Fire and explosion
    • Phillips Oklahoma, 1989, Humber Estuary, Crude oil, 800 t, ? ► Europe, Collided by other ship
    • Agip Abruzzo, 1991, Livorno bay, Crude oil, 2 000 t, Iran ► Europe, Collided by ferry, fire and explosion
    • Haven, 1991, Genoa bay, Crude oil, 133 000 t, Arabian Gulf ► Europe, Fire and explosion
  • Sailing in high seas
  • Sailing in a busy strait, canal, estuary
  • Others and undetermined
assessment of most critical passages on routes to europe
Assessment of most critical passages on routesto Europe
  • From the China Seas and Arabian Gulf through the Suez Canal
  • Along China Seas and Gulf routes round the cape of Good hope, 383 000 t spilled:
    • Venoil, 1977, South Africa, Crude oil, 27 000 t, ? ►Europe, Collision
    • Master Stathios, 1978, South Africa, Fuel, 22 000 t, ? ►Europe ? Fire and explosion
    • Castillo de Belver, 1983, NW of Capetown, South Africa, Light crude, 252 000 t, Arabic gulf ►Europe, Fire on board
    • Pacificos, 1989, South Africa, Crude oil, 10 000 t, ? ►Europe, Hull failure
    • Katina P, 1992, Mozambique, Fuel, 72 000 t, ? ►Europe, Hull failure in storm
  • Along Caucasian / Caspian routes through the Black Sea
  • Along Russian routes through the Arctic and Baltic Seas
global assessment of most critical passages to and within europe
Global assessment of most critical passages to and within Europe
  • Very high risk: those areas with a record of several major spills, namely
      • the tip of Brittany
      • the tip of Galicia
  • High risk: the capes, channels and ports approaches with a record of either one major spill or several medium ones, namely
      • the cape of Good Hope,
      • the Suez Canal,
      • the Bosphorus,
      • the Gibraltar strait,
      • the Dover strait,
      • Bantry bay
      • Milford Haven approaches
work in progress on oil transport externalities
Work in progress on oil transport externalities
  • Accidents related to Oil transport by tankers:
    • Consideration of the effects on accidents frequency and importance of the Erika and Prestige packages
    • Case studies on other sea routes:
      • attribution of probability site specific weights:
        • Ras Tanura – Rotterdam
        • Primorsk - Baltic Sea – Rotterdam
      • Damage evaluation (value transfer + direct costs)
    • Generalisation to external cost of oil transport by tanker to Europe
  • Accidents related to oil transport by pipeline:
    • decision treeproposed (to be validate by an expert judgment):
    • differentiation between mechanical, operational, corrosion, third part, natural accident
    • site specific: depends by ground characteristics, depth of the pipeline, country.
    • Generalisation to external cost of oil transport by pipeline to Europe
work in progress on oil extraction externalities
Work in progress on oil extraction externalities
  • Offshore (sea) platforms: decision trees analysis(to value the accidents’ probabilities) proposed (to be validated by an expert judgment): Structural failure,Collision, Helicopter accident, Blowout, Fire and Explosion,Spill release, Other accidents
  • Onshore platforms: accidents less frequent and relevant than those connected to offshore platforms, but types of accidents and externalities to be considered soon.
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Thank you for attention.

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