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Global Foresight – Impact Overview: World Future Society Toronto Meeting July 27 2012. Jack Smith, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa and TFCI Canada Inc. Ultimate Goal High and Sustainable Quality of Life.

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Global foresight impact overview world future society toronto meeting july 27 2012

Global Foresight – Impact Overview:

World Future Society Toronto Meeting

July 27 2012

Jack Smith,

Telfer School of Management,

University of Ottawa

and

TFCI Canada Inc.


Global foresight impact overview world future society toronto meeting july 27 2012

BUILDING PROSPERITY by CREATING INNOVATION & EXPLOITING CAPITAL ASSETS

Human Capital; SKILLS & IDEAS “Wetware “

(Educated & Healthy)

Foresight enables us to anticipate, develop & position our assets

  • High income per capita

  • Employment opportunities

  • Healthy and educated population

  • Clean environment

  • Safe places to live and work

  • Economic security for all citizens

Innovation Capital

“Software”

(Codified Knowledge & Technology)

5 Types of Capital Assets

Government Policy Role

  • Intergovernmental Relations

  • International trade/treaties

  • Federal/provincial/municipal

    Framework Policies

  • Environmental standards

  • Tax/regulatory/industrial policy

  • Fiscal/monetary management

  • Social policy

    Delivery of Services

  • Health/education/social welfare

  • Infrastructure, safety, security

Social Capital “Shareware”

(Institutions & Voluntary ,Virtual Organizations - Networks

New Wealth Creation

Physical Capital

“Hardware”

(Facilities & Buildings)

Natural Capital

“Bioware”

(Natural Resources & Environment)

  • Current Socio-Economic

  • Performance re:

  • Production Costs;

  • Job creation;

  • Trade balance

  • Foreign investment

  • Technology transfer

  • Productivity,

  • Growth

  • Innovation

Trends in the

Global Economy

  • Globalization Technological/

    communications change

  • Regional/global trade liberalization

  • Internationalization of business

  • World demographics

  • Shifts in Canada’s “ RUBRIC” relations

Future Socio-economic

Performance in the New-

Next Emerging Economy


Foresight analytics for innovation
Foresight Analytics for Innovation

  • Technology Readiness & Capability Assessment (TRCA); First examine the technologies for state of readiness and your own capability to drive them to development by filling gaps, adding knowledge and skills etc;

  • Prospective Applications & Opportunities Valuation (PAOP); application of foresight plus competitive intelligence-business analytics to determine best investments under uncertainty;

  • Innovation System Enablers & Scaffolding (ISES) ; e.g. venture capital; IRAP ; concierge role – CERC and coaching; managing for growth - what systemic elements need to be assured>?


Macro shaping trends
Macro Shaping Trends

  • Demographic, wealth shifts in West & world, BRICs-NICs – beyond boomers;

  • Mechanization of Intelligence – ambient networks & toward Singularity;

  • Global Anxiety – from Global Warming-Climate Change to Debt and Terrorism;

  • Miniaturization, Automation (robotics) & Socialization of Technology;

  • Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease, Eco-Environment, Wealth Creation;

  • Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability, Wealth Distribution;

  • De-Carbonization, Diversification of Energy Economy;

  • Harmonization - Standardization for Trade ;

  • Proliferation of Surveillance - Security in all domains;

  • Urbanization Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations;

  • Acceleration of Services as Economic Driver;

  • Smartness Transformationof Infrastructure Systems;

  • Intensification, Differentiation of Knowledge, Health & Wealth;

  • Virtualization, Digitization & Integration of: Business-Professions, Production, Communications, Entertainment, Education;

  • Convergence in technology applications: bio-info-nano-design (BIND) + eco-cogno/neuro capabilities- signalling new possibilities across multiple platforms

  • Performance and impact – increased analytical focus on systemic interventions; more interest in measurement, evidence in policy

  • Add your own


Implications for government led foresight
Implications for Government Led Foresight

  • More Governments (adopting, supporting, leading)

  • Critical Success Factors

  • Systemic Foresight with more

  • methodological diversity

  • Integrated Foresight - better

  • alignment with Policy Cycle

  • Measuring Foresight Impact





Measuring foresight impact
Measuring Foresight Impact

  • 2009-2011 meetings of the Govt Foresight Leaders Forum – Hartwell House UKFO; OECD Paris; Policy Horizons Canada;

  • Foresight Success Vignettes;

  • APEC Center for Technology Foresight – Bangkok International Advisory Board;

  • Special Issue of Foresight Volume 14 #1 February 2012; Foresight Impacts Around The World;(incl: Ian Miles, Ron Johnston, NISTEP, Calof & Smith, Riel Miller, Michael Jackson & more

  • September 2011: Foresight Impact Measurement Instrument TFCI Canada Inc.


Global foresight impact overview world future society toronto meeting july 27 2012

A key recurring challenge has been how to demonstrate the value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Global foresight impact overview world future society toronto meeting july 27 2012

Foresight and Policy- value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.

a Symbiotic Relationship

Foresight is varied and has many distinct stakeholders – so we need multiple measures to assess performance and measure impacts; The TFCI – Telfer School instrument relies upon 7 groups:

  • Roles that foresight plays for business, government and academia;

  • Benefits that can be realized by foresight sponsors, participants;

  • Critical Success Factors – how well designed, planned, aligned wit sponsors, clients knowledge opportunities etc.

  • Meta Measures – e.g. degrees of learning, awareness, exposure to new ideas etc.

  • Pre-Policy Measures – how foresight provides direction, insights, strategies for R&D, policy options- analysis;

  • Policy Support Measures – ways that foresight provides ongoing support for policies and their implementation;

  • Post-Policy Actions, Communications , where foresight helps ensure ongoing credibility, adaptiveness of policies.


Global foresight impact overview world future society toronto meeting july 27 2012

Which roles are most important for your value proposition? value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.

Which roles are most important for your value proposition?

  • Key Roles Perspective (R. Johnston)


Global foresight impact overview world future society toronto meeting july 27 2012

Benefits Perspective (Yuan et al) value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Global foresight impact overview world future society toronto meeting july 27 2012

Critical Success Factors Perspective (1-4) value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Global foresight impact overview world future society toronto meeting july 27 2012

Critical Success Factors Perspective (5-8) value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Global foresight impact overview world future society toronto meeting july 27 2012

Building A Foresight Impact Measurement Framework  value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Pre policy developmental measures
Pre - Policy Developmental Measures value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Policy support measures
Policy Support Measures value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Post policy implementation measures
(Post)Policy Implementation Measures value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Highest lowest impacts 54 measures
Highest & Lowest Impacts – 54 Measures value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.