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1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE

UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08. 1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy George Washington University 17 November 2008. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08. 2. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08.

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1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE

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  1. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08 1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES: FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy George Washington University 17 November 2008

  2. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08 2.

  3. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08 • STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION--AND ITS AFTERMATH • 1. The prior equilibrium: stable but not durable • 2. Disruption: Polity, Economy, Society, State • . • 3. Legacy: an anti-modern party-state • 4. Bottom up responses: • Coping strategies; adaptation; opportunities • 5. New equilibrium: A stable state is not a static state • 6. Divergence between European studies and Post-Soviet studies

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  7. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08 7. RUSSIAN ASPIRATIONS Q. We often hear the following words. What feelings do they evoke? % Positive % Negative Freedom 4% Christianity 3% One and indivisible Russia 5% Glasnost (Openness)16% Capitalism 28% Socialism 33% Perestroika 45%(Restructuring) Marxism- Leninism 37% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer, 1992. Those saying “difficult to answer” are not shown.

  8. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08 8. OPPORTUNITY: FREEDOM East German evaluation of policies of former regime, Federal Republic: Social security Freedom to say what you think Freedom of religious worship Source: Richard Rose, Wolfgang Zapf and Wolfgang Seifert, Germans in Comparative Perspective, 1993.

  9. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08 9. ECONOMIC SHOCK TO OFFICIAL ECONOMIES % 1990 GDP Poland Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Czech R. Estonia Romania Bulgaria Lithuania RussiaLatvia Source: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 2001: Energy in Transition, 2001, Table A.3.1, p. 59.

  10. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08 10. ECONOMIC RECOVERY Gross domestic product 1990: 100 % 1990 real GDP Pol Slve Hun Svk Rom Cze Bul Lat Est Lith Source: EBRD, Transition Report, 2001, 2007; 2006 figures are based on estimates, 2007 figures on forecasts.

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  13. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08 13. CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION Transparency International Corruption Index Old EU members New EU members 10 Highest integrity Denmark, Finland 9.4 Sweden 9.3 Netherlands 9.0 Luxembourg, United Kingdom 8.4 Austria 8.1 Germany 7.8 OLD EU 15 MEAN 7.6 Ireland 7.5 France 7.3 Belgium 7.1 Spain 6.7 Portugal 6.5 Italy 5.2 Greece 4.6 6.6 Slovenia 6.5 Estonia 5.8 (Malta) 5.3 Hungary, (Cyprus) 5.2 Czech Republic 5.0 MEAN OF NEW EU 4.9 Slovakia 4.8 Latvia, Lithuania 4.2 Poland 4.1 Bulgaria 3.7 Romania 1 Most corrupt Source: Transparency International, TI Corruption Perceptions Index 2007, www.transparency.org. Accessed 20 May 2008.

  14. UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08 14. DIVERGENCE OF POST-COMMUNIST STATES New EU Post-Soviet Perception of Corruption Index Sve Est Freedom House rating Hun Cze SvkLat, LitPol Arm Bul Rom Geo Mol Bel Rus Tur Ukr Aze, Kaz, Taj Uzb Kyr Sources: perception of corruption index: Transparency International, 2007; Freedom House rating: Freedom House, 2007.

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