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**Bayesian analysis at**work troublesome examples J. Charles, A. Hoecker, H. LackerandF. Le Diberder**Outline**• Setting the stage • Frequentist analysis • Bayesian analysis • Simplified stage • Concerns and Conclusion**Setting the Stage**B decays into ππ final states 6 observables And 6 theoretical unknown 6 decay amplitudes are involved CP Violation α**Bayesian Analysis**Data α • Theoretical parameters: • arerandomvariables • - following known PDF mind**QuantumMechanics parameterization**6 decay amplitudes are involved Onephase may be set to zero Bayesian (I) frequentist**Standard model parameterization**The 6 amplitudes are split into two kind of contributions Trees & Penguins 10^9 Bayesian (II) amplitudes & phases … or real & Imaginary parts ? Bayesian (II) frequentist Bayesian (III)**Changingdecay channel (ρρ)**Bayesian (I) Bayesian (II) !?! Quantum Mechanics amplitudes & phases JHEP 0507:028,2005 frequentist (I)(II)(II) real & imaginary parts Bayesian (III)**B → ππ**Taking key experimental information away removing all experimental hints related toα amplitudes & phases Quantum Mechanics**Conclusion**… that attractive ? priors parameterization**Spheres within a cube**Simplified Stage 6 Dspace Bayesian treatment one knows nothing about the individual space componentsx,y,z… What do we known about the radius r =√(x^2+y^2+…) ?**Concerns& Conclusion**α CKM Should we ?