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Worker Training’s Role in Montana’s Recovery: A Focus on Green Jobs and Restoration. May 22, 2012 Barbara Wagner and Aaron McNay . Employment and Total Wage Growth, Percent Increase over Prior Year.
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Worker Training’s Role in Montana’s Recovery:A Focus on Green Jobs and Restoration May 22, 2012 Barbara Wagner and Aaron McNay
Employment and Total Wage Growth, Percent Increase over Prior Year Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Montana Department of Labor and Industry
U.S. and MT Unemployment Rates 10% 7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Local Area Unemployment Statistics.
Total and Payroll Employment, 2020 ProjectionsSlower Job Growth in the Future Total Payroll Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2000-2010, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, 2000-2010, Research and Analysis Bureau Employment Projections, 2010-2020
Components of GDP (2010)(Aggregate Demand) GOVERNMENT 20%
Take Away Points • Montana’s economy is in recovery. • Expect slower job growth in the future due to reduced aggregate demand. THE BIG QUESTION How do we accelerate job growth?
Answer: Worker Training Types of Unemployment • Frictional • Normal, good, temporary unemployment that results from workers finding better jobs and turnover. • Cyclical • Unemployment due to a recession. • Structural • Skills mismatch between jobs and workers.
U.S. Unemployment Rate by Education Level Source: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Directing Displaced Workers into Appropriate Occupations • Workforce training and education are needed to retrain into growing occupations that don’t have excess supply. ?
Projected Job Growth by Education and Training Category OJT means on-the-job training Source: Montana Employment Projections, 2010, Research and Analysis Bureau, Montana Dept of Labor and Industry
Take Away Points • Structural unemployment can be addressed at the state level with education and training. • In general, more workers are needed in health care and in jobs requiring high levels of education. • Carpenters, retail workers, and workers in other occupations will need to be retrained to fill new jobs. • Geographical economic disparities are also a factor. • Skills are also important.
Green Jobs and Restoration Skills Green jobs are not a new phenomenon, but part of the ever-developing process to make production • more efficient, • reduce costs, and • eliminate unnecessary waste in order to make business more profitable. • Restoration fixes the mistakes of the past, and is a subset of green • Green jobs also include jobs that prevent future environmental damage, including those in industries that do not produce green products.
Green Jobs are Not Just a Fad • Increased demand for energy and other natural resources will cause price increases. • Consumers value ecological services. • Will demand green products • Will likely continue to use policy and regulation to keep immediate environment clean • Businesses try to increase profits. • Reducing costs and unnecessary waste • Creating niche products and marketing
Need for Green Job Training • 4.5% of all Montana jobs are green. • Over 85% of businesses participate in some type of “green activity.” • Growth rate is slightly faster than all jobs • 260 jobs per year through 2020
Certification and Licensure 14% green jobs require some type of certification or license • LEED • Water • OSHA • Pesticide Application • HVAC • Electrical • Welding • Lead Removal • EPA/ State Environmental Agency • Equipment Operation • Architect • Environmental Professional • Professional Engineer • Freon
Restoration Case Studies:Silver Bow Creek Superfund Cleanup • 31.5 total jobs per million of capital investment • Some additional training was needed, but not long-term. • Above average wages for the occupation.
Restoration Case Studies:Silver Bow Creek Superfund Cleanup • 90% of workers lived in Silver Bow County • Inconsistent and seasonal work pattern • Only 21% had work earnings in every quarter. • 73% of workers had earnings before and after cleanup. • Many worked multiple jobs. • Only 13% received all of their earnings from restoration. • Over 50% of earnings came from restoration work.
Forest Restoration In Montana • 2010 study examined the economic impacts of forest restoration spending in Montana’s economy. • Flathead County Stewardship/Energy Conservation Landscaping Project used as a case study. • An Input-Output model used to estimate the economic impact.
Case Studies: Forest Restoration Per $1 Million in Forest Restoration • 9.2 FTE Directly Involved in Forest Restoration • 19.5 FTE Positions Total • Nearly $600,000 Increase in Total Labor Income • $2.3 Million Increase in Total Economic Activity
Forest Restoration In Montana • The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act spent approximately $7.5 million for forest restoration in Montana. • Based on the estimates developed from the Flathead case study, the $7.5 million was estimated to have generated: • 147 Full-Time Equivalent Positions • $17.6 Million in Total Economic Activity
Where to Find More Info www.ourfactsyourfuture.org Click on publications for Projections information. Click on Green Jobs Survey Results for Green Jobs. Click on Presentations for a copy of this presentation.
Where to Find Reports • Projections: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPublications/4543_projections.pdf • Green Jobs, New Hire Skill Survey, and Forest Restoration: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/?PAGEID=4&SUBID=297 • Mine Restoration: http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPublications/3669_Restoration.pdf
http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org Barbara Wagner bwagner@mt.gov 406-444-5474 Aaron McNay amcnay@mt.gov 406-444-3245 Questions?Presentation,MONTHLY UPDATES, DATA, AND OTHER ECONOMIC RESEARCH AT