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Idaho Transportation Issues. David T. Hartgen, Ph.D., P.E . Emeritus Professor of Transportation Studies UNC Charlotte President, The Hartgen Group Remarks to the Governor’s Task Force on Modernizing Transportation Funding Boise, Idaho July 27, 2010. Topics. Economic Impact of Highways

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idaho transportation issues

Idaho Transportation Issues

David T. Hartgen, Ph.D., P.E.

Emeritus Professor of Transportation Studies

UNC Charlotte

President, The Hartgen Group

Remarks to the

Governor’s Task Force on Modernizing Transportation Funding

Boise, Idaho

July 27, 2010

topics

Topics

Economic Impact of Highways

Funding Options Study

“Bending the Cost Curve”

Congestion and Air Quality

economic impacts of highways two views
Economic Impacts of Highways: Two Views

“User Benefits”

“Jobs”

Direct (construction)

Indirect (const support)

Induced (local economy)

  • Travel time savings
  • Operating costs
  • Accidents
  • Reliability
findings from the literature
Findings from the Literature

User Benefits

Jobs

High-level studies

Impact depends on local economy and ‘leakage’.

Historical : 30-40 jobs/$ m, 2/3 direct

Recent: 5-20 jobs/$ m

Highest: Widenings in mid-sized areas

Lowest: pavement work in rural areas

  • Travel time 50-70%
  • Reliability 20-40%
  • Operating costs 5-10%
  • Accidents 5-10%
  • Largest for congestion relief
  • Lowest for pavement and bridge work
benefits from projects continued
Benefits from Projects (Continued)
  • ARRA (‘Stimulus’) reports (construction only)
  • T-PICS Tool for specific projects
  • Be Cautious:
    • Resist tendency to over-state construction benefits
    • Many local unknowns
    • Focus on mobility improvements over time
study of state funding options
Study of State Funding Options
  • Reason Foundation
  • Focuses on STATES, not feds.
  • Near-term options, 1-5 years
  • Consider growth, revenues, impacts
  • 1-page summaries of states/state groups
  • Oct 2010 (for 2011 Legis. Sessions)
idaho highway program trends
Idaho Highway Program Trends

Revenues

Disbursements

slide8

National Ratings

(Reason Foundation)

Funds increased

Rural Int. % Poor worsened slightly.

I-84 work will improve ratings

idaho road condition trends
Idaho Road Condition Trends

Interstate System

Lower Systems

slide12

What ‘s Been Approved? States Doing?

TOP 6:

Bonds

Fuel Taxes

PPPs

Vehicle Reg. Fees

Tolls

Re-Direct Funds to/from Highways

No Approvals of

VMT fees

Congestion pricing

Carbon taxes

fuel taxes and registration fees
Fuel Taxes and Registration Fees

Fuel Gallon-Sales Taxes

Vehicle Registration Fee

ID : $ 10 m $ 5/10/25 add-on) (Trucks $0.4 m)

Easy to administer

BUT:

Limited revenue at low rates

Visibility

  • Cents Per Gallon:

ID: $ 8.7 M for 1 cent/gal

Easy to administer

19 states since 2008 (NV 2.05 c/g, OR 6 c/g contingent)

Politically challenging

Limited revenue at low rates

  • Sales Percent

ID: $ 6.2 M for 0.25 cent/$.

2 states since 2008 (IN, NE)

Limited revenue at low rates

vmt mileage taxes and tolls
VMT (Mileage) Taxes and Tolls
  • VMT Tax
    • ID: $ 27 M annually (1/4 cent/mi, 70%)
    • Grows with travel, ‘odometer ‘ feasible now
    • BUT: Replace or add to fuel tax?
      • Administration?
      • Privacy issues?
  • Interstate Tolling
    • ID: $ 42 M annually at 1 c/m cars, 4 c/m trucks.
    • Relatively easy to administer
    • Significant recent interest by States
    • BUT : Restrain trade? Local travel ? Fair?
bonds and ppps
Bonds and PPPs

Bonds, etc

Private-Public-Partnerships

40-50 Nationwide

Design-Build (5 recent)

Design-Build-Finance(1)

Enabling Legisation( 6)

Tolls-pricing (2)

Maintenance (1)

BUT:

Revenue or ‘shadow toll’?

Mostly > $ 100 m

Limited applicability

Advisability?

  • Traditional
    • Revenue
    • General
  • Garvee bonds
    • Revenue stream?
    • Federal fund backing
    • Effect on Future program?
  • BABs, PABs
  • TIFIA
    • Loan guarantees/credit
    • Primarily large projects
re direct funds to from highways
Re-Direct Funds to/from Highways
  • 5 Recent Actions
    • AL: $ 100 m from State Trust Fund to hys.
    • CA: $ 950 m bonding from State to local roads.
    • LA: Veh Sales tax $ from GF to transp. Fund.
    • MO : Reduces veh/lic. Fee by $ 28 m.
    • ID: $ 20 m from SP/P&R to Hy Fund (delayed to 2011)
stimulus and federal actions
Stimulus and Federal Actions

Stimulus

Federal Actions

3 FTF infusions ~ $ 35B

Reauthorization ‘on hold’ pending ‘vision’ , Nov. election,?? ,

Delay to post 2012 ???

‘Earmarks’ declining

Formula changes ??

Carbon tax ??

Tolling the Interstate ??

  • $ 26.7 B nationwide
  • ID $ 179 m, 16 projects
  • ID: 2838 ‘job-years’ impact, mostly construction.
  • Repeat ???
summary for revenue actions
Summary for Revenue Actions

Revenue Options

Other Options

Consider State infrastructure bank to help locals

Explore PPPs (design-build, non-revenue, etc)

  • Continue prudent stance
  • Slow /reduce future bonding
  • Review fuel and registr. tax structure
  • Study Interstate tolls
  • Delay VMT–Pricing
bending the cost curve
“Bending the Cost Curve”

Project selection

Bids-Contracts

Consider bid-bundling (Missouri)

Consider contracting some maintenance functions. (VA, ALB)

Explore PPP options.

‘Design-build’ variants

Contractor participation

  • Long-term “vision’ and goals /track status
  • Select major projects by ‘benefit ’ vs. ‘cost’
  • Focus on early maintenance, ‘fair’ cond.
  • Allocate funds by need. Set District goals, select projects to meet goals (Montana)
congestion and air quality
Congestion and Air Quality

Congestion

Air Quality

VOC and NOx

Sharp improvement

vehicle efficiency

PM10/2.5 worsening

Transp. plans have minor impact

CO2: Likely increase

Signal timing

Tele-commuting

  • Boise region
    • Congestion ‘modest’
    • Plan has a modest deficit in congestion relief.
    • Intersection-arterial focus
    • $ 350-$400 M over 20 yrs
  • Other regions
    • Generally ‘mild’ congestion
    • Intersection focus
    • $ 50-100 m over 20 years