2006-2007 Winter and  Spring Forecast for New Mexico
Download
1 / 22

Seasonal Predictors - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 103 Views
  • Uploaded on

2006-2007 Winter and Spring Forecast for New Mexico National Weather Service Albuquerque, New Mexico http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq. Seasonal Predictors. ENSO (El Ni ño and La Niña) Various Long-range models

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Seasonal Predictors' - adrian-hahn


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Seasonal predictors
2006-2007 Winter and Spring Forecast for New Mexico National Weather ServiceAlbuquerque, New Mexicohttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq


Seasonal predictors
Seasonal Predictors

  • ENSO (El Niño and La Niña)

  • Various Long-range models

  • Long-term oscillations (e.g. Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)

  • Short-term oscillations (e.g. Madden-Julian Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation)


Main players for 2006 2007
Main Players for 2006-2007

  • El Niño

  • Possibly the PDO

  • The unknown





Seasonal predictors

Winter Precipitation

And the PDO

McCabe, Betancourt and Palecki (2004)


With el ni o and negative pdo
With El Niño and Negative PDO

  • Winter precipitation is less than with El Niño and Positive PDO

  • Spring Precipitation tends to be above normal

  • Result is normal to above-normal winter-spring combination but delayed building of snow pack.


Seasonal predictors
So…

  • Good News - No La Niña.

  • Good News - El Niño!

  • Good News – It can’t get any worse than last winter.

  • Possible Bad News – PDO could remain negative…but probably wont.


Seasonal predictors
So…

  • Overall, temperatures during the winter-spring of 2006-2007 will be close to long-term normal and significantly cooler than 2005-2006.

  • Overall, winter-spring of 2006-2007 will be substantially wetter than 2005-2006.

  • Best chance for above-normal winter-spring precipitation is over southern New Mexico.

  • Fire Season 2007 should start later than in 2006.