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Briefing, 20130803. Surface wx through Tuesday( Palmdale ) Cloud conditions and circulation in CA/OR/WA for Monday and Tuesday Have chance of thin cirrus on Monday and Tuesday over NORCAL, OR. For Tuesday, recommend earlier rather than later takeoff because of developing high cloud.

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briefing 20130803

Briefing, 20130803

Surface wx throughTuesday(Palmdale)

Cloud conditions and circulation in CA/OR/WA for Monday and Tuesday

Have chance of thin cirrus on Monday and Tuesday over NORCAL, OR. For Tuesday, recommend earlier rather than later takeoff because of developing high cloud.

Expect stratus off of NORCAL/OR coast, minimal inland

Offshore component (weak) circulation at 5kft (850 mb) expected Monday and Tuesday.

flight context
Flight context
  • DC-8 long test flight Monday (~6 hours)
  • Joint ER-2, DC-8, possibly DOE G-1 science flight on Tuesday (full length, fire and air quality objectives)
  • Transit flight Thursday, August 8, both aircraft, NAM objectives
surface wx at palmdale
Surface wx at Palmdale
  • No weather issues through Tuesday. Winds within limits, no T-storms expected.
slide4

High cloud forecast Monday Tuesday

Upper level trough off the NORCAL coast digs and forms a closed circulation at 500mb by

Sunday. Tilt becomes vertical by Monday, and trough moves VERY slowly shoreward by

Tuesday. Negative tilt develops Tuesday.

Currently wispy cirrus moving around this trough, as forecast by 0Z runs. Some cirrus

forecast of the NORCAL coast by both large scale models on Monday. Should be fairly thin.

GFS, Monday

EC, Monday 11 AM PDT

slide5

As the trough moves shoreward on Tuesday, high clouds may increase in northern Californiaand southern Oregon. Trough develops negative tilt late Tuesday as it moves shoreward and high clouds increase. EC model has higher cloud amounts. If

this pattern accelerates (these are 96 hour forecasts) could have some high clouds while we are flying. Within the constraints of being at the fires at ~1 PM local, earlier

is better than later.

low cloud forecast verification for friday
Low cloud forecast verification for Friday

This tells us something we already knew – CA stratus forecasts are tricky!

Valid 11 AM Friday. 42 hour forecasts for EC and GFS. EC model

delays the clearing near the NORCAL coast and misses the failure

to clear south of point Concepcion. GFS is equally “out of phase”

in NORCAL/SOCAL clearing, only much more so.

EC

GFS

low cloud forecast
Low cloud forecast

USE EC model, verifies better than GFS so far. Both show ample stratus off

the coast. COAMPS is different for SOCAL, but not for NORCAL and OR.

low level circulation
Low level circulation

Both Monday and Tuesday suggest an offshore component over OR. Low level closed

circulation strengthens on Tuesday near (125,39). COAMPS does not show this offshore

low, but still has offshore component over OR. EC does not have offshore low either. If it

develops, could produce hollowing out of low clouds off NORCAL coast (GFS low cloud

forecast not shown).

slide9

Yesterday’s smoke – can also see yesterday’s offshore 850mb component in GFS.

COAMPS 850 mb offshore component not as apparent.