Bryan Hayday Change-Ability Inc

1. Bryan HaydayChange-Ability Inc

2. Traditional Strategic & Operational Planning Process

3. How do organizations plan during periods of great uncertainty? Specify intentions (both short- and long-term) Prepare reactions (mitigate risk, explore opportunity) Anticipate (readiness) Adaptation (timeliness) Vision (dream) Organize ( to make sense and order out of emerging patterns)

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6. About Scenario Planning No organization can address everything that might be important for its future Predicting the long-term future is notoriously unreliable Scenario planning helps with conditions of high importance and high uncertainty Examining diverse scenarios built around a common issue or decision enables identification of robust (or repeating) elements Scenario planning helps to filter opportunities, risks, culture creation and key decisions Enables focus in areas of �high leverage� Use scenario planning as tool for exploration and readiness not adaptation (contingencies) not reaction (accommodation) not prediction and mid-term planning (strategic)

7. Why use Scenario Planning? Test viability of current strategy Invigorate conventional strategic planning (exposing untested assumptions and uncertainties) Increase capacity to see change as opportunity Create robust strategies that can work in a variety of contexts or emergent futures Develop sensitivity to recognize new drivers of change and �signs� in environment as they unfold Leading with less fear and more finely-tuned sense of the possible Co-create preferred futures, in the tension of external adaptation, emergence and internal self-organizing

8. Starting Points We cannot predict the future Where strategic planning is the right tool in complicated times, scenario planning is the preferred approach for complex times Good decisions and robust strategies will do well across several possible futures

9. Characteristics of Scenarios Do not fall neatly into �good� or �bad� futures May seem more like caricatures than predictions Help us think outside the proverbial box Help us �rehearse� our decision-making under the conditions of different but plausible futures

10. Developing Scenarios Identify focal issue or decision List key forces in the local environment Determine driving forces Rank by importance and uncertainty Select scenario logics Flesh out the scenarios Consider implications and patterns that repeat Select leading (versus trailing) indicators

12. Discerning Robust Strategies Robust strategies are not tied to any one set of circumstances or �future� Robust strategies comprise the series of actions which maintains organizational viability while keeping preferred �ends� in sight Highlights essential competencies or activities that are key to organizational success or survival in a series of plausible and vastly different futures Robust strategies are based on key strategic elements �no matter what happens� Robust strategies lack the precision of strategic plans because their use is tied to conditions of greater uncertainty Important to refresh robust strategies by testing against any major changes in the political, socio-demographic, economic, environmental and technological domains