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First Sino-French Conference On Sustainable Urban Transport Systems November 11-14, 2008 Shanghai, China. setec. A Methodology to Develop a Multimodal Travel Model in a Chinese City Alain BLOCH / Setec International. setec. Independent Engineering Group. design… 设计. m aster 控制.

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  1. First Sino-French Conference On Sustainable Urban Transport Systems November 11-14, 2008 Shanghai, China setec A Methodology to Develop a Multimodal Travel Model in a Chinese City Alain BLOCH / Setec International

  2. setec Independent Engineering Group design…设计 master控制 www.setec.fr

  3. Table of Contents目录 A Methodology for Sustainable Mobility and Transport Planning Studies • A Brief Presentation of the Setec Group • Why a Model ? • The Main Elements and Steps • First Phase: Study Area and Zoning • Second Phase: Data Bases • Third Phase: the Modelling Chain • calibration of the present situation • evolution and forecasts • modal choice • Some Issues • various uses of a traffic model • examples 3

  4. A Brief Presentation of the Setec Group Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology • founded in 1957, the setec group is now one of France’s largest engineering firms; it is completely independent • Setec 集团创建于1957年,是法国重要的工程集团之一。 • in 2008, setec has a staff of almost 1,500 in France and abroad, among them 1,000 engineers • 在2008年,在法国及国外拥有1500多个合作伙伴。 • subsidiaries and branches abroad: • Hungary, Iran, Japan, Luxemburg, Marocco, Russia, Tunisia • 分别在匈牙利,伊朗,日本,卢森堡,摩洛哥,俄罗斯设立常驻机构。 • annual sales in 2007 (only French subsidiaries): 143 M€ • 2007年营业额为(仅法国分公司):1.43 亿欧元 4

  5. Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Ranges of Services 业务领域 transport economy & mobility 经济与交通 transport systems运输系统 infrastructures基础设施 buildings 建筑物 industry工业 water and waste 水处理和垃圾处理 environement环境保护 project management项目管理 strategy, organisation 城市的战略,结构安排 urban and transport planning 规划,发展 telecommunications & Ict 远距离通讯及Ntic intelligent transport systems 远程交通运输 Consulting 评估 Design 设计 Supervision of Works 工程指挥 Assistance to the Owner 协助程承包人 for 5

  6. Major projects 大型项目 Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology • Transport and infrastructures • 交通运输与基础设施 • Environement环境 • Urban planning规划 • Building建筑 • Industry工业 • Telecom 电讯 Tunnel sous la Manche 英法海底隧道 Tunnels 隧道 Autoroutes (A43, A87, A89,...)高速公路(A43,A87,A89…) Economie des transports 交通经济 Ligne à Grande Vitesse Rhin-Rhône 高速线路莱茵河至罗纳 Transports en commun urbains城市公共交通 Tramway de l’Agglomération Orléanaise 奥尔良城市及郊区轻轨 Infrastructures fluviales, maritimes et aéroportuaires江河, 沿海及航空港的基础设施 Extension du port de la Condamine à Monaco摩那哥的孔达米纳的密集型港口 Infrastructures ferroviaires铁路基础设施 Ligne ferroviaire Lyon-Turin 里昂至都灵的铁路线 Systèmes et équipements系统及设备 Déplacement et transport routier en Ile de France 大巴黎区的交通 Ponts et routes桥梁与公路 Viaduc de Millau Millau 高架桥 6

  7. Major projects 大型项目 Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology • Transport and infrastructures • 交通运输与基础设施 • Environement环境 • Urban planning规划 • Building建筑 • Industry工业 • Telecom 电讯 Déplacements urbains城市交通 Déplacement et transport routier en Ile de France 大巴黎的交通和公路交通 Aménagement urbain城市规划 Ville nouvelle de NORTH BAHRAIN 北BAHRAIN 新城 Déplacements urbains城市交通 Révision du PDU de l’agglomération toulousaine 修正后的图卢兹城市及郊区的PDU Déplacements urbains城市交通 Plan de déplacements urbains de l’ile-de-France (Paris) 大巴黎区的城市移动图 7

  8. Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Urban Public Transport城市公共交通 • Traditional metros: Marseille, Lyon, Paris (Eole, Meteor) • 传统地铁:马赛,里昂, 巴黎(Eole, Meteor) • Automatic metros: Val de Lille, Toulouse, Rennes, SAT de Roissy 自动化地铁:Val de Lille, 图卢兹, Rennes, SAT de Roissy • Light Metro Systems (Tramway): Paris City and Paris Suburb, Caen, Nantes, Nancy, Nice, Orléans, Rouen, Strasbourg, Toulon, Valenciennes • 轻轨:巴黎及巴黎区,卡昂,南特,南锡,尼斯,奥尔良, • BRT: Val de Marne, Rouen, Douai, Lyon, Cannes… • 专用道巴士: • Urban transportation Plans and Sustainable Mobility Policies: Ile-de-France (Paris), Monaco, Toulouse, Le Mans, Tours, Pau… • 城市交通规划:大巴黎,摩纳哥,图卢兹,图尔... • Intermodal nodes: Nantes, Cannes, Vannes, Ile-de-France • 交通中转枢纽:南特,冈市,大巴黎... 8

  9. Transport Modelling Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology • Tools and methodology • A PracticalGuidebook for UrbanModellingfor CERTU • New software for the French Road Administration • Urban and regionalmodels • Caen, Marseille, Reims, Toulon ,Toulouse area (multimodal models) • Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Bordeaux (modèles routiers) • Tokyo, Varsovie, Dakar (modèles routiers) • Intercitymodels • Passengertraffic: National Multimodal Model for the French Railways (RFF), numerous High-Speed Lines in France (multimodal), Gibraltar tunnel between Spain and Marocco (multimodal), numerous road trafficmodels for motorways in France and abroad • Goodstraffic (multilodal): Lyons-Torino, Canal Seine-Nord Europe 9

  10. Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Setec in China setec 在中国的项目 Opéra de Pékin (calcul des structures) 国家歌剧院 (结构计算) 10

  11. Modelling Methodology: Why a traffic model ? Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Why analyzing mobility? • ChineseCities: an exponentialgrowth • Very important infrastructure works in a very short time • How to define a consistent transport system? • How to build an harmoniousurbandevelopment and a sustainable transport system? • Analyzingmobilityenables to answervarious questions and problems: • Strategy, Planning • Programming • Estimate of economical and financialprofitability • Design of networks • Environmental impact (noise, air pollution, greenhouseeffect) 11

  12. Modelling Methodology: Why a traffic model ? Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Why and how modelling traffic and mobility? • Choices are made by politic leaders whoneedadecision support tool • Complexphenomena, now and in the future • Important impact of investmentsupon people life and public finances • A model enables to know the sensitivity to variousparameters • A model isnecessarelyschematic but it must not be a caricature • Must bebased on reality (importance of fieldsurveys) • Must be transparent (data, assumptions) • Must beconsidered as a toolusedwithcriticalthinking • A model is not a simple software but a complexprocess, including: • Data bases • Mathematic formula • Computer tools • Urban and socio-economicanalysis and assumptions • Criticalanalysis of results, riskanalysis 12

  13. Modelling Methodology: The Main Elements & Steps Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Every mobility study using a model requires: • The definition of the study area and a zoning • The description of the various transport networks • The description of the transport demand (Origin-Destination matrices) • The calibratedassignment of the transport demand on the various networks (the model must describe the present situation: modal choice, flows and speeds on the various networks) • A set of assumptions for the future (network, demand, behaviour…) • Forecasts • Generation • Distribution • Modal choice • Assignment The classical four steps: 13

  14. Modelling Methodology: First Phase / Zoning Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Definition of the study area and zoning: • The zoning is the basis of the modelling • It includesinternal (mainly) and external zones • The zones must behomogeneous on an urban point of view • It must be fine enough to analyzeprojects but… • …it must be consistent withavailablesocio-economic and mobility data • …it must be consistent with transport networks • …it must be consistent withstatisticprocedures for calibration • It must takeintoaccountspecialtrafficgenerators as airports, big commercial areas, universities, hospitals… • For a 10 million inhabitants city: 1000 to 2000 internal zones • For a 1 million inhabitants city: 300 to 500 internal zones 14

  15. Modelling Methodology: First Phase / Zoning Zoning/Network (Paris) Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology 15

  16. Modelling Methodology: Second Phase / Data Bases Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Data collection, analysis and classification • Getting good databasesis a fundamental condition to build a useful model • Principle: severaldatabases (socio-economics, counts, trip times measurements, mobility data) willbecreated and introduced in a GIS • Socio-economic data: population, employment, students, car ownership, incomes… • Origin-destination data: • Householdssurveys (see CERTU) • Screenlinessurveys (around a city) • Public transportation surveys • Counts: road and public transportation • Trip times measurement: road, public transportation, bikes • Car parking • Network description: road (flow-speed curves), public transportation 16

  17. Modelling Methodology: Second Phase / Data Base Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Data collection: population data (GIS) 17

  18. Modelling Methodology: 3rd Phase/ Modelling chain Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Calibration of the present situation 18

  19. Modelling Methodology: 3rd Phase/ Modelling chain Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Traffic Forecasts for the Future 19

  20. Modelling Methodology: 3rd Phase/ Modelling chain Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Modal Choice Model: two examples 20

  21. Modelling Methodology: some issues Various uses of a traffic model Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology • Trafficestimate • Planning / Design • Incomes of a tollwork • Who uses the infrastructure ? • Impact on the various transport networks • Socio-economicanalysis • Time saving • Decongestion • Accessibility (isochrones) • Design of networks • Environmental impact (noise, air pollution, greenhouseeffect) • Impact uponenvironment • Noise • Traffic model interfacedwith a pollutantemission model • Emission depends on vehicles, speed, cool or hot engine… • Traffic model interfacedwith a pollutantspreading model • Spreadingdepends on topography and, especially, weather 21

  22. Modelling Methodology: some issues Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Traffic volume on a project 22

  23. Modelling Methodology: some issues Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Who uses a project? 23

  24. Modelling Methodology: some issues Impact on transport networks Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology 24

  25. Modelling Methodology: some issues Presentation Range of Services Our references Modelling Methodology Air pollution emission (here NOx) 25

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