HOW GENERAL IS THE HUBBERT CURVE?
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HOW GENERAL IS THE HUBBERT CURVE? Ugo Bardi 1 and Leigh Yaxley 2 1 Università di Firenze, Italy 2 Association of Petroleum Engineers, Jakarta. ASPO: Associazione per lo studio del Picco del Petrolio. www.aspoitalia.net. Hubbert is Unavoidable . U. Bardi – “Energy Policy”, 2005.

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Aspoitalia

HOW GENERAL IS THE HUBBERT CURVE?

Ugo Bardi1 and Leigh Yaxley2

1 Università di Firenze, Italy

2 Association of Petroleum Engineers, Jakarta

ASPO: Associazione per lo studio del Picco del Petrolio

www.aspoitalia.net


Aspoitalia

Hubbert is Unavoidable

U. Bardi – “Energy Policy”, 2005

  • Given certain assumptions:

  • Limited amount of resource

  • Cost of extraction inversely proportional to remaining resource


Aspoitalia

The Higher you Climb, the Faster you Fall

Bardi, 2005

Guseo et al.

To be published


Aspoitalia

How about the real world?

  • The Crude Oil case:

  • Limited amount of resource

  • Global Exploitation

  • No suitable replacement

Regional cases, e.g US-48 may not be relevant


Aspoitalia

Whales

U. Bardi – submitted to J. Ecodynamics


Aspoitalia

Historical Fishery Cases

Venzuelan pearls

Romero 1999

Bardi and Yaxley 2005





Aspoitalia

Conclusions for global resource depletion

  • “Bell Shaped”, or “Hubbert,” curve is approximately valid

  • Curve shape may be asymetric (technology factors?)

  • Prices start rising before peak

  • Rise of prices is exponential and strongly oscillating

Thanks to messrs. Jean Laherrere, Robert Parnell for their comments and suggestions