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HOW GENERAL IS THE HUBBERT CURVE? Ugo Bardi 1 and Leigh Yaxley 2 1 Università di Firenze, Italy 2 Association of Petroleum Engineers, Jakarta. ASPO: Associazione per lo studio del Picco del Petrolio. www.aspoitalia.net. Hubbert is Unavoidable . U. Bardi – “Energy Policy”, 2005.

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  1. HOW GENERAL IS THE HUBBERT CURVE? Ugo Bardi1 and Leigh Yaxley2 1 Università di Firenze, Italy 2 Association of Petroleum Engineers, Jakarta ASPO: Associazione per lo studio del Picco del Petrolio www.aspoitalia.net

  2. Hubbert is Unavoidable U. Bardi – “Energy Policy”, 2005 • Given certain assumptions: • Limited amount of resource • Cost of extraction inversely proportional to remaining resource

  3. The Higher you Climb, the Faster you Fall Bardi, 2005 Guseo et al. To be published

  4. How about the real world? • The Crude Oil case: • Limited amount of resource • Global Exploitation • No suitable replacement Regional cases, e.g US-48 may not be relevant

  5. Whales U. Bardi – submitted to J. Ecodynamics

  6. Historical Fishery Cases Venzuelan pearls Romero 1999 Bardi and Yaxley 2005

  7. Whale Oil and Bone, Prices

  8. Tasmanian Scallops

  9. Sturgeon and Caviar

  10. Conclusions for global resource depletion • “Bell Shaped”, or “Hubbert,” curve is approximately valid • Curve shape may be asymetric (technology factors?) • Prices start rising before peak • Rise of prices is exponential and strongly oscillating Thanks to messrs. Jean Laherrere, Robert Parnell for their comments and suggestions

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