Spatial Trends in Summer Rainfall: Analyzing 1950-2010 Using Innovative Statistical Methods

Dec 05, 2025

10 likes | 122 Views

This study presents the spatial trends in summer rainfall from 1950 to 2010, utilizing a transparent, open-source methodology. Drawing on new statistics and climate informatics, this analysis employs R for data processing and an optimal interpolation estimation method to quantify uncertainty. Through over 1,700 GHCN stations, we derive area-weighted trends, with an estimated rate of 0.96% per year (+/- 0.25%). Uncertainty is assessed via a 100-member ensemble, indicating a robust understanding of rainfall trends and their implications for future climate data products.

1 summer rainfall trends 2 climate informatics 3 opensource methodology 4 uncertainty quantification 5 statistical analysis 6 r data language 7 optimal interpolation 8 climate data products text

aderes

Download Presentation

Spatial Trends in Summer Rainfall: Analyzing 1950-2010 Using Innovative Statistical Methods

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

Doug Nychka, IMAGe • Design Goals • Transparent methodology • Open source code. • Explicit Uncertainty • Leverages new statistics and climate informatics Spatial trends in summer rainfall 1950-2010 Area weighted trend for domain: .096 +/- .025 Estimated trend (%/year) Next Generation Climate Data Products • Example • 1700+ GHCN stations • All analysis uses the R data language • Estimate method similar to optimal interpolation • Uncertainty quantified by a 100 member ensemble of trend fields. Ensemble member at 95% upper limit (.121) Ensemble member at 5% Lower limit (.071)