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Political Landscape Overview

Political Landscape Overview. February 14, 2011. Recap of 2010 Election. Greatest shift from one party to another in the House of Representatives since 1938: + 63 seats for GOP In 1938, Republicans picked up 80 seats in a dramatic rebuke for New Deal Democrats

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Political Landscape Overview

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  1. Political Landscape Overview February 14, 2011

  2. Recap of 2010 Election • Greatest shift from one party to another in the House of Representatives since 1938: + 63 seats for GOP • In 1938, Republicans picked up 80 seats in a dramatic rebuke for New Deal Democrats • GOP also picked up 6 Senate seats yet fell short of control of the Senate

  3. Current 112th Congress Partisan Divide

  4. President’s Party After 4 Years in Office • Historically, since Eisenhower the president’s party has gained on average 3-5 seats in the House and 0-2 seats in the Senate • A lot will depend on presidential approval leading up to election and the shape of the economy • 2010 census redistricting will also play a role in the House

  5. The U.S. House of Representatives In 2010 among those who took less than 55% of the vote: 61 Republicans compared to just 48 Democrats Many of those Republicans defeated Democrats who were their party's only hope of holding onto a deeply red seat, or won an open seat in a Republican-leaning district where Democrats would be hard-pressed to gain back ground   According to NCSL, GOP will hold exclusive line-drawing authority for around 195 House districts Only 49 seats will be controlled by Democrats, 92 seats will be redrawn in states where control is split, 92 will be redrawn by an independent or bipartisan commission, and seven seats (the At Large states) will not require redistricting Very favorable to GOP

  6. Democratic Members of Congress Most Vulnerable to Redistricting • Jerry McNerney, CA-11 • Howard Berman, CA-28 • Laura Richardson, CA-37 • John Barrow, GA-12 • Leonard Boswell, IA-03 • Joe Donnelly, IN-02 • John Olver, MA-01 • Gary Peters, MI-09 • Russ Carnahan, MO-03 • Larry Kissell, NC-08 • Brad Miller, NC-13 • Bill Pascrell, NJ-08 • Joe Crowley, NY-07 • Carolyn Maloney, NY-14 • Betty Sutton, OH-13 • Mark Critz, PA-12 • Jim Matheson, UT-02

  7. Republican Members of Congress Most Vulnerable to Redistricting • Tim Griffin, AR-02 • Allen West, FL-22 • Tom Latham, IA-04 • Joe Walsh, IL-08 • Robert Dold, IL-10 • Bobby Schilling, IL-17 • Aaron Schock, IL-18 • Jeff Landry, LA-03 • Bill Johnson, OH-06 • Blake Farenthold, TX-27 • Ken Calvert, CA -44 • Judy Biggert, IL-13 • Charles Boustany, LA-07 • Leonard Lance, NJ-07 • Ann Marie Buerkle, NY-25 • Bob Gibbs, OH-18 • QuicoCanse, TX-23

  8. The U.S. Senate • Democrats are defending 23 seats to just 10 for Republicans • Watch retirements / Open Seats: Dems have 3 so far: Conrad (ND); Lieberman (CT) and Webb (VA). GOP has 2: Hutchison (TX) and Kyl (AZ) • Cook Political Report rates 5 Dem seats as Toss-Up: MT (Tester), NE (Nelson), ND (Conrad), VA (Webb) and WV (Manchin). • Only 2 GOP seats Toss-Ups right now: MA (Brown) and NV (Ensign) • Watch the primaries. The NRSC will sit out the primary season, but the Tea Party won’t. It is very challenging for Tea Party candidates to win in purple or blue states. Will these activists focus on electability and not put up challengers who might be a “witch” (Christine O’Donnell, DE)?

  9. 2012 Presidential • Campaign planning seems to start earlier and earlier each cycle • 2004: 9 declared Democrats vied to take on Bush • 2008: 11 declared GOP candidates

  10. Factors affecting 2012 • Historically, a president with 48-49% approval rating wins and those with approval ratings below lose • President Obama is hovering in the 48-49% now, but has spent much of his time around 46% so it is unclear how this plays out • If the economy noticeably picks up, then Obama’s first two years will be forgotten. If not, it could be a real race

  11. President Obama • More popular than his policies • Approval rating typically higher than the ratings on most individual issues—particularly on top domestic concerns like the economy, spending, the deficit and health care

  12. President Obama • Obama viewed in the public's eye as a likeable person, a faithful husband and a good father • Because of personal likeability, is not clear that approval rating has the same political effects that other presidents' approval ratings do

  13. Presidents Seeking Re-Election and Pre-Election Gallop Polls

  14. Obama Outlook • Recreating the 2008 electorate will be difficult for the Democrats • Obama is no longer the candidate of change; public anger at the status quo will now be directed at him, rather than Republicans • Historic nature of re-electing the first black president seems much less than that of first electing him. Re-energizing casual Democratic voters to the extent that he did in 2008 is tough

  15. GOP Contenders Sarah Palin Mitt Romney Perceived runner-up to John McCain in 2008 (he won three primaries and eight caucuses Many on the right continue to view him as a faux conservative But he has personal wealth to help jump start campaign “Romney Care” criticism as precursor to President Obama’s health reform The Mormon thing • No one in the potential GOP field has as big a personal following anything close to hers • Very polarizing • Dems, Independents and some GOP view her as lightweight and not qualified

  16. Mike Huckabee Mitch Daniels Two term IN Gov. and a wealth of political and policy experience Still not all that well known among GOP rank and file May have caused harm to chances in saying publically that the next president “would have to call a truce on the so-called social issues” • Southern as ordained Baptist minister, he has strong social conservative credentials • Won IA in ’08 and series of southern primaries • GOP may want a candidate focused primarily on fixing the economy, or not so closely aligned to Christian right that may alienate independents

  17. Tim Pawlenty Haley Barbour Effective 2 term Gov. of MS Significant political and Washington powerbroker experiences (RNC Chair, former lobbyist) His “southernness” and his past roles could be baggage • Successful two term MN Gov. • Well liked and amiable, was on John McCain’s short list for running mates in 2008 • State went to Dem Gov. in 2010 • Republicans need to be “the party of Sam’s Club, not just the country club.”

  18. Rick Santorum John Thune Fourth ranking GOP leader in Senate Views on fiscal and social issues are reliably conservative Just re-elected from SD, and may have aspirations to run for Senate #2 now that Sen. Jon Kyl is retiring • Two term Senator from PA, has strong credentials on pro-life issues and promoting federal funding to faith-based organizations • Many trips to NH, IA and SC • Polorazing and speaks from the hip, has spent good bit of time writing about international affairs and War on Terror

  19. The Maybes… Newt Gingrich • Considering a real run • He doesn’t see anyone of real consequence in the race policy-wise • He has plenty of baggage that could weigh his candidacy down  Chris Christie • A smart, good Governor, made big Red splash in Blue state NJ • Has stuck to his guns in vetoing tax increases, and taking on budget cuts and teachers unions • Still has many challenging issues in NJ

  20. The Iowa Caucus Process • Retail politics • Candidates have to withstand a long complicated process • Is Iowa representative of the rest of the voting nation? • Meeting expectations

  21. Significant happenings • Senator Thune’s campaign manager • Gentry Collins • The Family Leader events • Gay marriage debate • Michelle Bachman visit • Will Governor Brandstad endorse? • Palin’s flyover

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