Imagine ahead - plan backwards: Prospective methodology in urban and regional planning.

1. Imagine ahead - plan backwards: Prospective methodology in urban and regional planning. Elzbieta Krawczyk & Professor John Ratcliffe The Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology, Ireland

2. Outline of the presentation Cities in the 21st century Challenges facing contemporary urban planning Weaknesses of planning�s approach towards the future The Prospective methodology The process Mechanisms for collaboration and participation Interplay of different generations Conclusions

3. Cities in the 21st century Home to a half of the world�s population. Cores of human activity and engines of economic growth. Extremely dynamic and complex, globally connected multidimensional systems. Struggling with a whole range of problems related to: economic growth, social development, state of the natural environment, urban finances, and governance.

4. Challenges facing contemporary urban planning Challenges posed by contemporary change. Competition between cities and urban regions. Sustainability agenda. Urban governance. Opportunities and threats arising from - social and cultural transformations, - demographic change and - accumulation of social and environmental problems. Remember about the threats posed by terrorism. Remember about the threats posed by terrorism.

5. Weaknesses of planning�s approach towards the future Deficiency in dealing with complexity and the uncertainty of change. Limitations of projections as the main method supporting planning. Main focus on spatial form. Short-term orientation of planning.

6. Weaknesses of planning�s approach towards the future (2) Lack of an integrated and holistic approach to urban systems. Lack of effective public participation and collaboration between stakeholders. Neglect of the visionary approach towards the future.

7. The Prospective methodology It attempts to address an increasingly recognised need for a shift from the traditional planning mind-set to a more imaginative, innovative and inclusive future-oriented approach. Such an approach should reinforce an understanding that the future can be shaped and thus enable: Communities: To envision their desired future, building upon common values and wishes;

8. The Prospective methodology (2) Professionals: To understand the complexity of urban systems and the global context within which they function; To anticipate local and global change and its short, medium and long-term impacts; To consider cities as entities and tackle their problems in an integrated manner; To create images of possible and probable alternative futures; To understand the needs and values of communities; To develop mechanisms that would facilitate collaboration of all stakeholders in shaping the future; To promote networking of actors and the building of a collective intelligence; Community and professionals to work together in order to achieve this envisioned preferred future state.

9. Prospective process

10. Mechanisms for collaboration and participation The proposed mechanism for encouraging collaboration among the stakeholders: �concertation� process. Examples of methods for facilitating public participation: community forums, focus groups and consultation brochures.

11. Concertation process Concertation, originated in France, could be described as a as �a process, which facilitates the coherence between actors and partners viewpoints through the establishment of a social, political and/or administrative consensus�(ENDA 2004). Or as �negotiation occurring in the public decision-making processes� (de Carlo 2003).

12. Concertation process (2)

13. Methods for public participation Examples of methods for facilitating public participation: - Community forum. It brings together community and voluntary groups. As a structured and recognised platform, it can facilitate dialogue between community organisations, local government and other stakeholders. Focus groups. Can bring together citizens, community organisations, stakeholders and experts in order to explore specific issues. Consultation brochures. Distributed among citizens can help to develop awareness about projects, encourage participation in them and gather valuable knowledge about community concerns, wishes, needs, perceptions and other�.

14. Interplay of different generations Considered from two different points of view: General urban development and its consequences for future generations. (2) The role of different generations in shaping urban environments at present.

15. Conclusions Recognition of the need for a new imaginative, innovative and inclusive future-oriented approach to urban planning. The need for a more effective collaboration between stakeholders and more active involvement of communities in shaping the future of cities. It is hoped that the Prospective methodology would assist stakeholders and community in doing so.

16. Thank you for your attention! The Futures Academy, Dublin, Irelandelzbieta.krawczyk@dit.iejohn.ratcliffe@dit.ie