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The 2012 Elections Lawrence R. Jacobs Director, Center for the Study of Politics and Governance . Presidential Elections U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota Minnesota Legislative Elections The Changing Electorate. “Around the horn”. “Houston, we have a problem”.
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Lawrence R. Jacobs
Director, Center for the Study of Politics and Governance
Sources: Josh Putnam, Frontloading HQ; Republican Party; data from polls of likely Republican primary voters conducted by CNN/Time/Opinion Research, NBC/Marist and Quinnipiac University. Graphic Compiled by New York Times.
Sources: Turnout as a Percentage of Eligible Voters -- AP, NEP Exit Polls, Elections.GMU.Edu, CBS
White Evangelical Christians as Percentage of Eligible Voters in Republican Caucasus and Primaries
Sources: AP, NEP Exit Polls, Elections.GWU.edu. 2012 Exit Polls: IA, NH, SC, FL, NV. 2008 Exit Polls: AZ, MI, GA, MA, OH, OK, TN, AL, MS, IL, LA
“Very conservative” political philosophy
Sources: 1992 & 2000 data are from the National Election Pool Presidential Primary Elections via ICPSR, 2012 data are from CNN.com:
"On most political matters do you consider yourself: (Very Liberal, Somewhat Liberal, Moderate, Somewhat Conservative, Very Conservative)"
Presidential Candidate Unfavorabilty Ratings, April of Election Year
Sources: NYT/CBS Poll (1992-1996), ABC/WP Poll (2000-2012)
Source: Real Clear Politics (4/1/2012)
Rove Strategy: Frame choice that plays to base -- turn out reliable & loyal voters
Most influential during nomination battle and among activists
Question: Who offers sharpest alternative?
Retrospective Voting: Win referendum -- “Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?”
Most influential during general election and among undecided
Question: Which opposition candidate receives most anti-incumbent votes?
Sources: National Election Pool General Election Exit Polls, 2004, & 2008; McClatchy-Marist Poll (3/22/12))
Percentage of Americans Ranking the Economy as Country’s Most Important Problem
Source: “Which of the following matters more to you in deciding which presidential candidate to support - the candidate's views on economic issues or the candidate's views on social issues?” (registered voters only, CBS/NYT Poll (2/13/12)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
President Obama’s Job Approval on Economy
Obama Approval Rating and Consumer Confidence Index
Source: Approval data are from Gallup polling; data on consumer attitudes are from Gallup's Economic Confidence Index
Percentage Extremely or Very Enthusiastic About Voting
“How enthusiastic are you about voting for president this year?”
Source: USA Today/Gallup (3/11/12)
Source: 1980-1988 (NYT/CBS Exit Poll); 1992 (Voter Research and Surveys Pool Exit Polls); 1996-2000 (Voter News Service Pool Exit Polls); 2004-2008 (National Election Pool Exit Polls)
Source: Favorability ABC/WP (4/15/12); Job Performance ABC/WP Poll (4/8/12)
“Both sides only need to care about 8% to 12% of electorate”- John Weaver , GOP Strategist & McCain Advisor
Republicans Net Advantage(Republican Vote minus Democratic Vote)
Sources: 1992 (Voter Research and Surveys Pool Exit Poll); 1996-2000 (Voter News Service Pool Exit Poll); 2004-2008 (National Election Pool Exit Poll)
Obama’s Advantage in 2008 Exit Polls Compared to 2012 Registered Voters
Source: Pew Research Center (4/15/12) http://www.people-press.org/2012/04/17/section-1-general-election-preferences/
Senator Klobuchar’s Job Approval
Sources: (SurveyUSA Poll, 9/09): “Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Amy Klobuchar is doing as a Senator?” and (PPP Poll, 12/10, 6/11, 1/24): “Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Amy Klobuchar’s job performance?”
Retirements/Open Seats/Seats Lost to Redistricting in Minnesota House and Senate
House Retirements: Rep. Connie Doepke, Rep. Mark Buesgens, Rep. Denise Dittrich, Rep. John Kriesel, Rep. Keith Downey, Rep. Kurt Bills, Rep. Nora Slawik, Rep. Ron Shimanski, Rep. Marion Greene, Rep. Lyle Koenen, Rep. Larry Hosch, Rep. Kate Knuth, Rep. Torrey Westrom, Rep. Bobby Joe Champion, Rep. Brande Petersen, Rep. Bev Scalze, Rep. Mary Kiffmeyer, Rep. Bruce Anderson, Rep. Bill Hilty, Rep. Kent Eken, Rep. Mark Murdock, Rep. Pat Mazorol, Rep. Mindy Greiling, Rep. Mike LeMieur,Sen. Keith Langseth, Rep. Tom Tillberry, Rep. Carol McFarlane
Senate Retirements: Sen. Amy Koch, Sen. Al DeKruif, Sen. Chris Gerlach, Sen. Gen Olson, Sen. Linda Higgins, Sen. Doug Magnus, Sen. Geoff Michel, Sen. Gary Kubly, Sen. Mike Parry, Sen. Ken Kelash, Sen. Mary Jo McGuire, Sen. Mike Jungbauer, Sen. Claire Robling, Sen. Gretchen Hoffman
Source: List Compiled by Rachel Stassen-Berger, Star Tribune
Source: MinnPost Poll; July 28, 2011
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the State Legislature is doing?
Sources: (KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll 6/11 and 2/12)
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the DFL/Republican members of the legislature are doing?
Source: PPP Poll (1/27/12)
Governor Dayton Approval
Sources: (Star Tribune Poll 5/11 and 11/11): ” Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Dayton is handling his job as governor?”
(KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll 6/11 and 2/12) : “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Dayton is doing as Governor?”
(PPP Poll 1/12): “Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Mark Dayton’s job performance?”
Source: Public Policy Polling, Feb 14, 2012: "If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?"
Source: Pew Research Center, 2008
Projected changes in population:
Source: (Pew Research Center 11/11) http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/the-generation-gap-and-the-2012-election-3/11-3-11-27/
Keep or Repeal Health Care Reform?
Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, Feb. 23, 2012: Do you think Congress should try to repeal the health care law, or should they let it stand?
Depress turnout below 2008 levels
Moderate demographic changes – slow immigration & birthrate
2014 worriers – Collins, Graham
How important is it to you that the Vikings Stay in Minnesota?
Source: (Star Tribune Poll 11/11) http://www.startribune.com/politics/133240568.html
Source: “I’m going to read you a list of the public funding options being considered to help pay for a new Vikings stadium. If a stadium is to be built, please tell me whether you support or oppose each of the following.” (Star Tribune Poll 11/11)
Source: Gallup (3/25/2012)