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www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends FUTURES FORUM ON RECREATIONAL BOATING Ken Cordell Gary Green U.S. Forest Service, Athens, Georgia AND Becky Stephens University of Tenn. Trends and the Significance of Demographic Shifts NSRE NATIONAL SURVEY ON RECREATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT SINCE 1960

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slide1

www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends

FUTURES FORUM ON RECREATIONAL BOATING

Ken Cordell

Gary Green

U.S. Forest Service,

Athens, Georgia

AND

Becky Stephens

University of Tenn.

Trends and the Significance of Demographic Shifts

slide2

NSRE

NATIONAL SURVEY ON RECREATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT

SINCE 1960

THE UNITED STATES’ ON-GOING NATIONAL RECREATION SURVEY

slide3

1960:

Flower Children,

18-horse Johnson,

VW Camper Vans,

Elvis and The Beatles,

Vietnam, Kennedy,

Family Vacations,

Chevy Impala V8

slide4

2001:INTERNET, WILD STOCK RIDE, HONDA SUVs, BUSH/GLOBAL WARMING, WEALTH, INTERSTATES, B2 STEALTH, JOBS, GROWTH, ADVENTURE RECREATION

long term trends
LONG-TERM TRENDS

LONG-TERM

TRENDS

slide8

Trends

  • Almost 90 percent of Americans participated in Outdoor Recreation
  • Walking, picnicking, sightseeing,
  • swimming, fishing, and bicycling
  • the most popular activities

1980's

  • 94.5 percent participated
  • List of pursuits getting longer, more diverse
  • Walking, sightseeing, swimming, picnicking, boating most popular

1990's

slide9

NOW

  • Over 97 percent report activities
  • Most are adding to their recreation menu
  • Living longer means staying active longer
slide10

Shifts in Outdoor Recreation Markets

  • Technology innovations are making more areas, more accessible:
  • - Jet boats
  • - Light-weight gear
  • - Sub-zero sports clothing
  • - Sticky climbing shoes
  • - Night scopes
  • Risk/Adventure pursuits are gaining in popularity:
  • - Base jumping
  • - Falls shooting
  • - Mountain boarding
  • - “Jet skiing”
  • Traditional outdoor activities still growing (moderately); consumptive activities declining; viewing/learning activities on the rise.
slide11

Activities Adding the Most Participants 16 or older, 1982-2001

Millions

GrowthNo. in 2000

Walking 85.4 179.0

Bird watching 50.0 71.2

Hiking 48.4 73.1

Swimming/river,

lake, or ocean 36.4 92.9

Sightseeing 32.7 114.0

Picnicking 31.8 116.6

Bicycling 27.4 83.9

Developed camping 22.8 52.8

Motor boating 17.8 51.4

Off-road driving 17.3 36.7

Backpacking 14.6 23.4

slide16

Our Changing American Society

  • About 1 million new immigrants per year
  • More people: 1990 248 mm

2000 275 mm

2020 325 mm

2050 404 mm

2075 481 mm

2100 571 mm (Double)

  • Getting older: Median age 3538 (by 2020)
  • Changing ethnicities by 2050:

Anglo Americans 76%50%

African Americans 12% 15%

Hispanic Americans 9% 21%

Asian Americans 4% 11%

slide17

Forecasts

Projected Demand to 2020

Millions Indexed Change

Participating (Base year is 1995)

Activities (1995) People Days Trips

Water-Based

Going to the Beach 124 1.24 1.17 1.17

Motor Boating 47 1.21 1.14 1.16

Swimming 78 1.21 1.12 1.09

Fishing 58 1.17 1.17 1.10

Canoeing 14 1.15 1.28 1.14

Rafting/Floating 15 1.07 1.17 1.10

Winter-Based

Cross-Country Skiing 6 1.26 0.96 1.12

Downhill Skiing 17 1.22 1.31 1.36

Snowmobiling 7 1.09 1.32 1.35

Forecasts

slide18

Forecasts

Projected Demand to 2020

Millions Indexed Change

Participating (Base year is 1995)

Activities (1995) People Days Trips

Land-Based

Sightseeing 113 1.32 1.43 1.43

Non-consumptive wildlife 117 1.29 1.09 1.15

Biking 57 1.28 1.25 1.45

Family Gatherings 124 1.24 1.23 0.83

Hiking 48 1.23 1.24 1.23

Horseback Riding 14 1.23 1.22 1.29

Rock Climbing 8 1.21 1.15 1.03

Walking 134 1.21 1.29 --

Camping 42 1.19 1.36 1.30

Backpacking 15 1.11 1.15 1.08

Off-Road Driving 28 1.05 0.99 1.06

Hunting 19 0.91 0.99 1.03

Forecasts

slide20

CANOERS

  • 43 % female
  • 87 % non-Hispanic white
  • 33 % under 25, 77 % under 45
  • Incomes mostly between $25K and $75K
  • Under 80 % urban
  • Favored by Northeasterners and Midwesterners
slide21

KAYAKERS

  • 44 % female
  • 85 % non-Hispanic white
  • 60 percent under 35, 40% under 25
  • Over 1/3 earn under $25K
  • 85 % urban
  • Heavier participation in New England and Pacific Coast states
slide22

SAILERS

  • 48 % female
  • 84% Non-Hispanic white
  • 44 % under 35
  • Middle income earners, also sig- nificant high income earners
  • 87 % urban
  • Especially favored in the North- east
slide23

WINDSURFERS

  • 67 % male
  • Almost ½ under 25, 56 % under 35
  • 1/3 between $25-$50K, 1/3 over $100K
  • Northeast and Pacific Coast
slide24

MOTOR BOATERS

  • 52% between $25 and $75
  • 77% urban
  • Favored in the Lake, Midwest and South Atlantic states
  • 58 % between 25 and 55
  • 57 % male
slide25

WATER SKIERS

  • 60 % male
  • 86 % white, 8 % Hispanic
  • 86 % under 45
  • Favored by Prairie and Mountain states residents
slide26

PERSONAL WATER CRAFT

  • 54 % male
  • 79 % white, 11 percent Hispanic
  • 66 % under 35
  • Favored in the Midwest and South
slide27

Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by race and country.

slide28

Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by age and income.

slide30

The Urban

Beach Boys

(3.8%)

Young

New England

Wind Surfers

(0.9%)

The Inactives

(22.0%)

Segmenting for more effective

communication and education

Nature

Lovers

(27.2%)

The Noreaster

Musclers (6.2%)

The Thrill

Seekers (8.3%)

Hunt-n-Fish

Men’s Motor Club

(6.3%)

The Take it Easies

(25.3%)

slide31

Nature Lovers (27.2%)

  • Viewing/photographing birds, flowers, wildlife, fish, natural scenery, and gathering mushrooms and berries, and learning in nature centers, visitor centers, historic sites and archeological sites
  • Not into hunting, fishing, active sports or motorized activities, and not into boating
  • 61 % female, mostly white, middle aged and seniors, not foreign born
  • New England and Prairie states well represented
  • Donate to civic or charitable organizations, spend time with grand children, invest, creative arts, collect things and garden, and read environmental magazines
  • Believe humans are abusing the earth, the balance is delicate, and we are on a course for catastrophe
slide32

Hunt-n-Fish Men’sMotor Club (6.3%)

  • Hunt, fish, motorized, camp, motorboat (53%), canoe
  • Don’t participate in beach activities or much in viewing/learning
  • 88% male, 90% white, under 45, U.S. born, much more rural, Prairie and Southern
  • Belong to wildlife conservation group, read nature magazines, woodworking, own a business, garden, have pets and do home improvements
  • Humans were meant to rule over the earth and environmental crisis is exaggerated
slide33

The Urban Beach Boys (3.8%)

  • Diving, Surfing, Snorkeling, Kayaking, Sailing, Backpacking, Snowboarding, Saltwater Fishing, Water Skiing, Jet Skiing. more active than most people in most activities, except hunting
  • Two-thirds white, Asian/Pacific Islanders well represented, majority under 35, U.S. born, and urban
  • South Atlantic and Pacific Coast
  • Regularly like to go to movies, use internet at home, participate in environmental groups, invest, and attend classes, involved as a youth volunteer, into the arts
  • Like most Americans feel humans are abusing the earth, we’re on a course for ecological catastrophe and the balance of nature is delicate
slide34

Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9%)

  • Wind surfing (71%), surfing, kayaking (48%),

sailing (68%), non-motorized winter activities,

diving, snorkeling, rowing (28%) and canoeing (55%)

  • More active than most Americans in all activities, including water and jet skiing
  • Over 85% white; two-thirds male; one half under 25; urban, U.S. born
  • New England and Pacific Coast residents strongly represented
  • Into movies, lifelong learning classes, participate with environmental groups, regularly attend movies, belong to a country club, on the internet and into the stock market
  • More strongly believe environmental crisis is greatly exaggerated, even though we are nearing the earth’s limits
slide35

The Inactives(22.0%)

  • Not very active in outdoor activities, except for a bit of walking, family gatherings, and picnicking
  • 55% female, blacks and Hispanic well represented, spread across age groups, mostly urban and U.S. born
  • Spend time with grandchildren, cook at home, regularly attend religious services, collect things like coins and antiques
  • More strongly believe human ingenuity will insure the earth, humans were meant to rule over nature, humans can control nature, and the environmental crisis is exaggerated
slide36

The Noreaster Musclers (6.2%)

  • Cross-country skiing, rowing (31%), kayaking (28%), canoeing (53%), downhill skiing, sailing (25%), hiking, visiting a wilderness, backpacking, snowboarding, bicycling and fishing
  • They don’t hunt, but are active in most other activities
  • Somewhat more male than female, white and Asian/Pacific Islander, young to middle aged (not seniors), urban, from New England, Prairie, Mountain and Pacific states
  • Members of conservation groups, use the internet at home, attend concerts, have vacation property, invest, belong to a country club
  • More belief that we are abusing the earth, the balance of nature is delicate and we may be heading for disaster
slide37

The Thrill Seekers (8.3%)

  • Waterskiing (62%), jet skiing (68%), rafting (46%), snowmobiling, snowboarding, motorboating (83%), downhill skiing, driving off-road, rowing and canoeing
  • Very active across a large number of activities
  • Equally male/female, white and American Indians well represented, two thirds under 35, almost all born in the U.S., from Plains states
  • Youth volunteers, belong to a country club, use the internet, attend movies, watch sports on TV, gather with friends and neighbors
  • Balance of nature is delicate, humans are abusing the earth, and a disaster is looming
slide38

The Take it Easies (25.3%)

  • Sightseeing, driving for pleasure, picnicking, visiting historic sites, family gatherings, visiting nature centers, and walking
  • They don’t ski, boat, hunt, fish, or view/photograph
  • More female than male, Blacks and Asian/Pacific Islander well represented, all ages, all regions
  • Attend cultural events, go to movies and church, raise children and spend time with grandchildren, use the internet, and eat out
  • Believe humans can insure the liveability of the earth and the environmental crisis is exaggerated
slide41

Percentages Indicating Environmental Protection

or Economic Development are Highest Priority

Source: Gallup/CNN/USA Today Poll, April 13-14, 1999.

summary points
SUMMARY POINTS
  • Our society has changed dramatically in the last few decades, and it shows up in our outdoor recreation
  • Outdoor recreation is growing and diversifying as a part of Americans’ lifestyles, almost everyone is involved at some level
  • Walking, birding, hiking, swimming are at the top of the activity growth list, not far behind is motor boating
slide43

SUMMARY CONTINUED

  • Population is likely to continue its rapid growth in the next few decades, with some groups literally exploding in numbers
  • Increasingly we see women, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, older and urban people participating, although outdoor recreation is still very much a white male pursuit
  • All indicators point to continuation of the rise of outdoor recreation in the future, and more demands on water and land resources
  • At the same time people are showing strong concern for the environment and its water and land resources
  • Resource managers will be challenged like never before, and, there will be increasing needs for more effective sharing of information about safety and impacts
  • Need to be smart about outreach and education strategies