AFGHANISTAN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
PURPOSE PROVIDE A COMPLETE AND CONSISTENT CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR MEASURING THE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF A NATION. MONITOR ECONOMY PROFARMANCE ENABLING INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON ADOPTING CONCEPTS AND FRAMES FOR THE ECONOMIC STATISTICS
FRAMEWORK • Regular Activities: • GDP by industrial origin -Current price - Constant prices • GDP by Expenditure categories at (CP) • Sectoral Composition of GDP • Annual percentage change • GDP implicit deflator • Other Activities
Definitions, and classifications • Currently, the national accounts estimates follow the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the SNA 1993, as the basic data availability permit.
Compilation approaches • PRODUCTION APPROACH • EXPENDITURE APPROACH
ESTIMATION OF GDP GDP(FC): Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the value of all goods and services produced at factor cost (FC) in the economy during a particular period . GDP (MP) = GDP (FC) +Net Indirect taxes
Compilation Period GDP estimates are compiled annually onthe Solar year basis ending March 20, e.g. for the year 1387 the covered period is from 21 March 2008 to 20 March 2009. The GDP estimates are published once a year in the Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook.
Prices • All the producers’ prices (PR) are based on CPI survey. The percentage different between farmer and market (mainly profit margin, transportation cost, and taxes) prices are determined for each item (between 15-30% depend on the goods and the distances). The annual percentage change in consumer price index (CPI) of each item in food (more than 100 items) is used for the annual change in producers’ prices.
Agriculture • Agriculture is the most important sector in the economy with more than 80% of population actively involved in it. Due to the high level of subsistence farming in Afghanistan.
Major crops: Minor crops: Rice, Wheat, barely , Sugarcane, Sugar beet Maize, etc. Pulses, Vegetables, Fruits, Oil seeds, potatoes , etc. CROPS Intermediate Consumption: Seeds, Fertilizer, Pesticides, Water, Transport Charges, etc. Provincial Agriculture & MOA,WFP &FAO (FAAM), Sources: Gross Value Added: The production approach is used to arrive at value added.
LIVESTOCK Composition: Cattle and their products Poultry and their products Intermediate Consumption: Roughages (green and dry),Concentrates(Grains, Oilcakes), Grass &Grazing, salt, Medicines, etc. Sources: Livestock Ministry of Agriculture, FAO WFP etc. Gross Value Added: The production approach is used to arrive at value added.
FORESTRY Composition: Forestry and logging includes 1) logging, 2) charcoal, and 3) firewood Intermediate Consumption: Seeds, plantation, fertilizer, etc. Ministry of Agriculture Sources: The production approach is used to arrive at value added. Gross Value Added:
MINING & QUARRYING Mining and quarrying cover the extracting and preparation for further processing of coal, natural gas, salt, sand, stone, gold, Birit, Chon precious stone gash, Composition: Intermediate Consumption: Ratio of IC/GO Ministry of Mine and Economics Statistics Departments. Sources: Gross Value Added: The production approach is used to arrive at value added.
LARGE-SCALE MANUFACTURING Manufacturing in Afghanistan are mainlyFood, beverages, and tobacco, Textile, wood production, paper products ,etc. Composition: The Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Light Industry, and Ministry of Commerce provide manufacturing production and producer prices data for public and private enterprises Sources:
CONSTRUCTION Construction consists modern construction in public sector ,rehabilitation, project in progress, and new projects, modern private sector and traditional construction. Data sources : ED collects data from Ministry of Public Work, Ministry of Finance, private sector construction and others. Data for traditional construction are derived based on population census, number of household, and cost a typical house in rural area. IC: 55% ratio VA: Production approach
ELECTRICITY, GAS DISTRIBUTION & WATER SUPPLY Composition: This group include the generation of hydro—power, and the transmission, of electricity, the manufacture of gas ,natural gas, production and distribution of water . Intermediate Consumption: Fuels, Oil, Gas, Water, etc. The main source of data for this group is Ministry of Industry and Electricity . Sources: The production approach is used to arrive at value added. Gross Value Added:
TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMUNICATION Composition: Air transport, land Transport and communication. Ministries of Transportation and communication Economy dept ,of CSO and National Accounts ad-hoc survey. Sources: Gross Value Added: production approach
FINANCE & INSURANCE Composition: Finance sector covers ,monetary institutions, other financial institutions and Insurance. Monetary institutions include Central Bank, commercial banks and other private banks. from Money Exchange Association, DAB, CSO and Insurance CO. Sources: The production approach is used to arrive at value added. Gross Value Added:
Expenditure approach • Total final consumption expenditure is the sum of private and government consumption. Government consumption data are drawn directly from the national budget . • Currently only current prices of GDP by expenditure are estimated by indirect method of carry over the GDP from production side and making the private consumption (or final consumption expenditure of household) as residual including data discrepancies and change in stocks.
Surveys needed : • National Risk and Vulnerability Survey • Census of Agriculture • Integrated Business Establishment Survey • Census of Establishments • Small-scale survey on Agriculture • Expanded Consumer Price Survey
Future Plan • Use the upcoming result of the Integrated Business Enterprise Survey (IBES) to improve basic data for NA. • Plan to compile the integrated economic accounts . • Improve 1993 SNA • Develop Sequent account • Institutional units • Other recommendation of SNA93/2008
Technical assistance Experienced expert to review the system and make plan for future
Thank you very much M. Ibrahim Naimi Head of N.A,and Price Statistics Dept.