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MENA Water Outlook 2050. Water Scarcity and Adaptation Options Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel , Petra Hellegers Jippe Hoogeveen, Bekele Debele Negewo. Study Design. Objectives Detailed water supply and demand analysis 2010-2050

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Mena water outlook 2050 l.jpg

MENA Water Outlook 2050

Water Scarcity and Adaptation Options

Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, Petra Hellegers

Jippe Hoogeveen, BekeleDebeleNegewo


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Study Design

  • Objectives

    • Detailed water supply and demand analysis 2010-2050

    • Identification of potential options to overcome water shortage

  • Steps

    • Climate and other change projections

    • Hydrological impact model

    • Water resources supply/demand analysis

    • Cost and benefits adaptation options

  • Limitations

    • Large scale so simplifications, generalizations


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WEAP Modeling Framework

  • WEAP modeling setup

    • 22 countries

    • Streams, Reservoirs, Groundwater

    • Irrigation, Domestic, Industry

    • 2000-2050

    • 3 climate change models

    • Resultsfromhydrological model


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REsults: demands


Results l.jpg
Results

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Demand curves MENA (AVG)


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Results

Demand curves MENA (DRY)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Demand curves MENA (WET)


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Results

Demand and Supply Curves MENA (AVG)


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Results

Demand and Supply

Curves MENA (DRY)

Demand and Supply

Curves MENA (WET)


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Egypt

Iran

Morocco

Yemen


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Water Demand-Shortage

MCM/year; averageclimate change



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Water MarginalCost Curves

  • Closingsupply-demand gap:

    • Increasing the productivity

    • Expandingsupply

    • Reducingdemand

  • Water marginalcosts curves

  • Assumptions:

    • Net present value (US$ 2010)


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Strategies

  • Increasing the productivity:

    • A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties)

    • B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry

    • C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture

  • Expanding supply:

    • D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)

    • E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)

    • F: Desalination by means of using solar energy

    • G: Desalination by means of reverse osmosis

  • Reducing demand:

    • H: Reduce irrigated areas

    • I: Reduce domestic and industrial supply


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Strategies (increase productivity)

  • A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties)

    • Typical examples:

      • drip and sprinkler irrigation

      • no-till farming

      • improved drainage

      • utilization of the best available germplasm or other seed development

      • optimizing fertilizer use

      • innovative crop protection technologies

      • extension services

    • Costs

      • US$ 0.01 per m3

      • = US$ 100 per ha per year

    • Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:

      • Egypts IrrigationImprovement Project (IIP)  US$ 100 per ha per year

      • 2030 Water Resources Group  US$ 0.02 – 0.03 per m3


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Strategies (increase productivity)

  • B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry

    • Costs

      • US$ 0.30 per m3

    • Note: costs can vary substantially.

      • What to do with reused water (industry, irrigation)


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Strategies (increase productivity)

  • C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture

    • Assumptions

      • Reuse only for agriculture

      • No water treatment system

      • Only operational and investment costs

      • 50 mm per year

    • Costs

      • Total: US$ 0.04 per m3

      • 50% annualized capital costs of investment

      • 50% operational costs (maintenance, some pumping)


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Strategies (expanding supply)

  • D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)

  • E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)

    • Costs

      • 0.03 $/m3 for small scale

      • 0.05 $/ m3 for large scale

    • Note: costs can vary substantially

      • sand dams in Kitui District, Kenya  0.04 $/m3

      • Aslantis Dam, Turkey  0.035 $/m3


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Strategies (expanding supply)

  • F: Desalinisation using solar energy (CSP)

  • G: Desalination using reverse osmosis

    • Assumptions

      • Details see presentation by Fichtner

    • Costs

      • CSP 0.70 $/m3 to 0.35 $/m3 in 2030 and 2050

      • Reverse osmosis 0.50 $/m3

    • Note: costs can vary substantially

      • Especially energy

Reverse

Osmoses

Multi Effect

Distillation


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SWRO = Sea Water Reverse Osmoses

MSF = Multi Stage Flash

MED = Multi Effect Distillation


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Strategies (reducing demand)

  • H: Reduce irrigated areas

    • Assumptions

      • Reduce irrigated areas by 10%

    • Costs

      • 0.10 $/m3 (Value of irrigation water (Water Productivity) between 0.05 and 0.15 $/m3.

    • Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:

      • Crops

      • Irrigationmethod

      • Climate




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Water Supply andDemand

MENA region


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MENA: Water MarginalCosts Curves

Allvalues in 2010 US$

net present value


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Egypt

SaudiArabia


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Adaptation Costs(2050, averageclimate)


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Conclusions

  • Study

    • Advanced hydrological-water resources approach

    • In country variability

    • Monthly approach

    • Changes: climate, GDP, domestic, industry, agriculture

    • Scopingstudy

  • Overall results

    • Renewable water resources 20% reduction

    • Water shoratge 220 km3 (range 104-306)

    • Water shortage due to climate change 14% (range 1-35)

    • Costs of adaptation US$ 47 billion (range 12-98)

    • Costs of adaptation 2050: 2.5% to 0.3% of GDP (current to 2050 GDP)

  • Adaptation is possible, ifpolicies are put in placenow!


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ComparisonOther Studies

  • “Economics of adaptation to climate change” (World Bank, 2010):

    • Developingcountries: 0.2 percent GDP (2030)

    • Developingcountries: 0.12 percent GDP (2050)

    • MENA: US$ 2.5 – 3.6 billion per year (2050)

  • “2030 Water Resources Group”

    • MENA: increase in demand: 99 km3 (2030)

  • Making the Most of Scarcity (World Bank, 2007):

    • MENA: 1 – 3.6% of GDP (currently)

  • AQAU-CSP (DLR)

    • Water shortage: 50 km3 (current)

    • Water shortage: 150 km3 (2050)

2050:

Shortage (km3): 220 (104-306)

Costs (billion US$): 47 (12-98)

GDP (%): 0.3 – 2.5


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Way Forward

  • Water shortage:

    • Unconventional decisions needed

    • Food, environment, tourism, industry?

    • Subsidies on water-food-energy

  • Water-energy nexus

  • Long and short term decisions

  • Detailed case studies (country, topic)


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ThankYou


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GDP projections

Morocco

Egypt