Brief Study Earthquake Precursor with ULF Band Geomagnetic in Indonesia as Preliminary Research MAGDAS-9 BMKG-SERC In Sumatera, INDONESIA. By A. Suaidi Ahadi , B. K.Yumoto , C. Gunawan Ibrahim , D. Hendra Grandis BMKG, Geomagnetic Observatory of Tuntungan Jl. Geofisika No1 Tuntungan Pancurbatu Medan, INDONESIA, email@example.com SERC-Kyushu Univ., Space Environment Research Center Kyushu University 53 6-10-1 Hakozaki Higashi-ku Fukuoka Postal Code 812-8581 JAPAN, firstname.lastname@example.org ITB,Faculty of Earth Science and Technology Jl Ganesha 10 ITB Bandung, INDONESIA, email@example.com ITB, Faculty of Minning and Petroleum Engineering Jl Ganesha 10 ITB Bandung, INDONESIA, firstname.lastname@example.org
Out Line • Introduction • Recent Result Earthquake Precursor with Electromagnetic • ULF (ultra-low-frequency) associated with Earthquake • Indonesia Early Warning System • Proposal Earthquake Precursor In West Sumatera For the Modeling study Earthquake Early Warning system in Indonesia. • Case Study Padang Earthquake 2009
Introduction EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
Introduction • Earthquake prediction method can not use statistical methods, because earthquakes do not have a clear time dimension as we study the Science’s atmosphere that has the earth's rotation and revolution of the earth to the sun. needed now is how we study earthquake precursors. • Earthquake Precursor Earthquake Prediction.
Why? Courtesy Prof. Widodo
Conceptual view of the EM signals VLF-VHF EM waves Possibility of Signal occurrence DC-ULF EM phenomena 10 days EQ Micro-fracturing Micro crack-electrification Hydro-chemical changes (Radon) Electrokinetic phenomena Signal emission (DC-ULF, ELF, VLF. LF, MF, HF, VHF) Net charge accumulation Ionospheric disturbances Anomalous transmission (OMEGA, VLF, FM(VHF)) From Hattori
Recent Result Earthquake Precursor with Electromagnetic Kopytenkodkk., (1990) => Spitak EQ , 1988Fraser-Smith., (1990) => Loma prieta eq,1989Molchanov et al.,(1992) => compare Spitak and lomaprieta eq.Hattori et al., (2007)=> study analysis EQ Precursor to Geomagnetism data.Yumoto et al., (2009) => a New ULF analysis EQ precursor
Earthquake Precursor Recent study • Earthquake-earth, Kagoshima, Japan (March 3, 1997), MJMA = 6.5 which is recorded in the H component Taramizu station is 65 km from the epicenter, there is increased emission of electromagnetic waves Ulf few weeks before the event (Hattori et al., 2002). • Earthquake-earth Hokubu, Japan (3 September 1998), MJMA = 6.1 recorded in H-NairikuIwaken station is 15 km from the epicenter, there is increased emission of electromagnetic waves of 16 (sixteen) days before the event (Hattori et al., 2004 ). • Earthquake-earth of Biak, Indonesia (February 17, 1996) MMw = 8.2 is 100 km from the station-earth Magnet Schouten (LAPAN '), an increase in emissions of electromagnetic several months before the incident (Hayakawa et al., 2000). • Earthquake-earth Chi-Chi, Taiwan, 21 September 1999, MMw = 7.7 is 135 km from the station-earth Magnet Taiwan, an increase in emissions of several months before the incident (Akinaga et al., 2001). Hattori,2006 Fraser-Smith, 1990
ULF (ultra-low-frequency) associated with Earthquake THE ULF EMISSION CAN BE OBSERTABLE WITHIN THE EPICENTER DISTANCE OF ~ 100KM FOR EARTHQUAKE WITH M = 7, WHILE ~70 – 80 KM FOR EARTHQUAKE M = 6 ( HAYAKAWA AND HATTORI,2004).
A new ULF wave analysis for Seismo-Electromagnetics(Yumoto et al., 2009) • Polarization ratio (Z/H) The power ratio between the horizontal (H) and the vertical (Z) component of Pc 3–4 magnetic pulsations observed at the station(RIK) near the epicenter of the 1999/05/12 Kushiro earthquake. • Power ratio between two stations (AR/AM) The H- and Z-component Power ratio of Pc 3–4 magnetic pulsations observed at the station (RIK) near the epicenter to those at the remote reference station (MSR). ULF anomalies may be observed at the station (RIK) near the epicenter, but not at MSR, which is far from the epicenter. • Power ratio of one-day vs. one-year-average (AD/AY) The H- and Z-component power ratio of each day power to the one-year-average power (annual Mean) at the station (RIK) near the epicenter. A change of the power ratio may occur before the earthquake.
ULF (ultra-low-frequency) associated with Earthquake A Case Study : Khusiro EQ, 1999 (Yumoto et al., 2009) Plot the blue line is the power ratio (Z / H) for Pc 3 for daily variations Komp. Z / H, plotted in black lines are the mean and the plot line in gray is the standard deviation in Rikubetsu station (RIK) during the last six months which is associated with the earthquake (red line), 12 May 1999 (Yumoto et al., 2009 ) Plot the blue line is the daily variation comp. Pc H-3 power ratio AR (RIK) and AM (MSR) (RIK / MSR = AR / AM), the plot line of black color is the average price (Average running) and the plot line in gray is the standard deviation. The red line is the plot of earthquake occurrence time (Yumoto et al., 2009). Plot the blue line is the Daily Variation Komp. H (AD) against the average annual (Annual Mean) / (one year average) (LM); (AD / LM) at the same station (RIK). Plot black line is averaging (running average) and the plot is a gray line standard deviation (Yumoto et al., 2009) B C
Indonesia Early Warning System NOW INDONESIA HAVE A INA-TEWS (INDONESIA TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM )WE PURPOSE FOR INDONESIA EARLY EARTHQUAKE WARNING SYSTEM (INA-EWS) WITH EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR BASED ON ULF BAND.
INDONESIA EARLY WARNING SYSTEM • Now Indonesia Have a Ina-TEWS (Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System ) • We Purpose for Indonesia Early Earthquake Warning System (Ina-EWS) with earthquake precursor based on ULF Band.
PROPOSAL RESEARCH PROPOSAL EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR IN WEST SUMATERA FOR THE MODELING STUDY EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN INDONESIA
210°MM Chain PI: Prof. K. Yumoto 96°MM Chain WAD GLY BDP SFY IZM ASB FYM PSD KTM ASW HLN AUS TGG DKR MRV MNL MUT BCL ABJ AAB TIR ILR LAG LKW JUB NRB DES KAS CYN MCP BLM SLZ CXI EUS PIU TJL CBT Magnetic Equator Chain TRS NTL SVD RDJ ANC LSK BIR MPT CNT ICA ARC DBN MAGDAS II Planned MAGDAS II Installed FM-CW radar MAGDAS Planned MAGDAS Installed DAV MAGDAS (MAGnetic Data Acquisition System) Network at SERC, Kyushu Univ.
Final Result EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM WITH GEOMAGNETIC PRECURSOR.
Early Warning System With Geomagnetic Precursor Co-Seismic Electromagnetic Di Sumatera MONITORING PLAN MEGNETOMETER MAGDAS-9 SERC-BMKG DAN ITB
Case Study Padang earthquake, 2009
Polarizaton Z/H Moving Average Earthquake Signature EQ
Padang Earthquake,2009 Earthquake Parameter Date : Wednesday, 09/30/2009 OT : 17:16: 09 ( local Time) 10:16:09 (UTC) Epic : 0.88 S – 99.55 E Magnitudo : 7.6 (Ms) Depth : 71 Km
The Other Earthquakebefore Padang Earthquake Earthquake Parameter Earthquake Madina Earthquake Parameter Date : Saturday, 09/19/2009 OT : 17:50: 30 ( local Time) 10:50:30 (UTC) Epic : 0.71 N – 99.91 E Magnitudo : 5.1 (Ms) Depth : 10 Km Earthquake Nias Earthquake Parameter Date : Saturday, 09/19/2009 OT : 21:28: 09 ( local Time) 14:28:30 (UTC) Epic : 0.88 S – 99.55 E Magnitudo : 7.6 (Ms) Depth : 28 Km
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