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Asia and Global Oil & Gas Markets and Geopolitics. Mikkal E. Herberg The National Bureau of Asian Research Independent Petroleum Association of America “Mid-Year Meeting and Executive Conference” Naples, Florida June 14, 2006. Asian Oil and Gas Trends to 2020.

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asia and global oil gas markets and geopolitics

Asia and Global Oil & Gas Markets and Geopolitics

Mikkal E. Herberg

The National Bureau of Asian Research

Independent Petroleum Association of America

“Mid-Year Meeting and Executive Conference”

Naples, Florida

June 14, 2006

asian oil and gas trends to 2020
Asian Oil and Gas Trends to 2020
  • Oil demand, imports will drive global market
      • 67% of recent growth, 50% of future growth
      • Economic growth, rising per capita incomes
      • Motorization, vehicle boom
      • Poor oil production prospects
      • Weak demand management policies
  • Largest future incremental natural gas market
  • China to account for 20% global energy demand growth, largest incremental oil market (20-25% of global growth)
  • India oil and gas demand growth second only to China
  • Energy security concerns growing, Asia-ME nexus
  • Asia NOCs becoming serious competitors, partners
asia 67 global oil demand growth mbd
Asia = 67% Global Oil Demand Growth(MBD)

WorldAsiaChina

1990 1,229 841 -6

1991 -46 597 158

1992 733 963 252

1993 -199 685 251

1994 1,459 1,109 232

1995 1,127 993 245

1996 1,523 766 282

1997 1,917 843 263

1998 446 -364 112

1999 1,616 926 370

2000 904 808 568

2001 501 105 46

2002 793 579 349

2003 1,248 599 412

20042,4641,109893

15,714 10,557 4,424

Source: BP

asia will drive oil demand growth 2002 2025
Asia Will Drive Oil Demand Growth2002-2025

Total = 41 MMBD

Source: DOE 2005

asia s oil demand increasingly met by imports from outside the region
Asia’s Oil Demand Increasingly Met by Imports from Outside the Region

14.7

Demand

Imports

4.5

MBD

Production

Source: BP

asia s future oil imports will grow by more than current pg exports
Asia’s Future Oil Imports Will Grow byMore than Current PG Exports
  • Imports
  • 14.4
  • 2030 36.0

Demand

Supply

Source: IEA WEO 2004

mid east oil exports and asia mmbd
Mid-East Oil Exports and Asia(MMBD)

2001 2020 Change

Total ME 16.225.2 9.0

Asia 9.4 16.8 7.4

North America 2.8 3.2 0.4

Western Europe 3.1 3.9 0.8

Other 0.9 1.3 0.4

Asia Share 58% 67%

  • 60% of current ME oil exports go to Asia
  • 80% of future export growth will go to Asia

Source: IEE Japan 3-04

china s oil imports rising
China’s Oil Imports Rising

Source: IEA WEO 2004

cumulative gas demand growth 2001 2030
Cumulative Gas Demand Growth2001-2030
  • Asia’s gas demand to nearly triple by 2030

Source: IEA WEO 2004

total asian natural gas imports nearly triple lng and pipeline supplies to grow dramatically
Total Asian Natural Gas Imports Nearly TripleLNG and Pipeline Supplies to Grow Dramatically

20022030

SE Asia to NE Asia 69 104

Persian Gulf to NE Asia 29 57

Alaska to NE Asia 1 0

SE Asia to China 0 10

Persian Gulf to China 0 13

Persian Gulf to India 0 44

Russia to NE Asia 0 22

Russia to China 0 19

Total 99269

of which

Persian Gulf 29 114

Russia 0 41

Southeast Asia 69 114

  • Imports from outside region rise five-fold
  • Outside import share rises from 29% to 58%

IEA WEO 2004

some conclusions
Some Conclusions
  • Asia, China to drive global oil demand, markets, prices
  • Huge rise in gas consumption, thriving LNG, pipeline gas projects in Asia
  • Asia only modest upstream oil play – India, SE Asia, E. Siberia; stronger upstream natural gas play
  • Asia NOCs inflating prices in global E&P market
  • NOCs changing competitive landscape for IOCs
  • China, Asia to become big players in global energy geopolitics
      • Persian Gulf
      • Central Asia
      • Russia
      • IEA