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The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects. Soirée Technique, Dec 8 th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University of Technology. 1. This talk is about:. Prospects:. substantial helpful effect on climate. major component of

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the coming power of wind perspectives and prospects

The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects

Soirée Technique, Dec 8th

Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources

Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn

Delft University of Technology

slide2

1

This talk is about:

Prospects:

substantial helpful

effect on climate

major component of

energy security

.. they are different.

long term price stability

re-think way we run

power system

Perspectives:

policy makers and lawyers

investors

..they are many.

electricity grid and market operators

slide3

2

Global: the

“stabilization triangle”

substantial helpful

effect on climate

European level:

About 25-30% of efforts

Image credit: cmi.princeton.edu

200 Gt, in next 50 years:

Each wedge: GT/year

Install 2TW of wind;

provide about 5 PWh

slide4

3

We’re coupling our energy system

to climate patterns, and to

weather patterns.

Variable,

but predictable.

Regional-but

renewable

Image credit: The Atmosphere, 8th edition,

Lutgens and Tarbuck, 8th edition, 2001

slide5

4

Will climate change affect wind power projects?

Michelangeli and Loukos, 2007

Roughreasoninganticipates

futurereduction in yield…

..detailed models confirm.

Effect varies over globe;

dependsonlocal features;

hard to predict.

Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007

slide6

Will wind power

projects cause

climate changes?

wind energy

conversion

requires momentum

transfer.

5

slide7

6

Will wind power

projects cause

climate changes?

Brand 2009

minimum safe distance(2-10% deficit): order of tens of kilometers

the recoverydistance(1%

Deficit): hundreds of kilometers.

Christiansen and Hasager 2005

Wake effect:

becoming of

legal interest

Brand 2009

slide8

7

Will wind power

projects cause

climate changes?

Keith, 2004

Change global mean temperature?

Detectable but negligible compared to

anthropogenic forcing.

Takel, 2011

Wind power affects

crops, local weather?

First indication:

helpful or neutral;

but research just starting

slide9

8

Is there even that much wind power?

Physical Potential

Technical Potential

Economic Potential

Hoogwijk 2004

slide10

9

Is there even that much wind power?

Technical: 96 PWh/year,

Economic: 53 PWh/year at 0.13 €/kWh

21 PWhr/year at 0.052 €/kWh

versus 15 PWh/year global electricity consumption

of global electricity consumption

Hoogwijk 2004

slide11

10

Is there even that much wind power?

Many regions have resource exceeding consumption, costs differ.

Hoogwijk 2004

3 PWh/year

European electricity consumption in 2008:

slide12

11

How much has been built?

As of 2004, about 0.05% of the economic potential was developed

As of 2010: perhaps 0.4%.

Source: GWEC

Growth rate of last 5 years: ~27%

(doubles every ~3 years)

Is there enough money to build it all?

Global: 0.5T USD a year to meet 450 PPM

(vs bond market 90 T USD)

Europe: to meet EU targets, 30-65 billion a year

(vs bond market 23 T,GDP of Europe: 16T)

Trend in pension fund investment in infrastructure: estimated at 1 T a year

slide13

12

Addressing investment risk: significant deployment barrier

Samec 2011

Sources of risk: resource uncertainty, inflation, construction delay

Mitigation instruments: wind derivatives, loan guarantees, construction insurance

slide14

13

Generation mix: limits and changes in thinking

30% renewable energy scenario studied in North America: (image credits NREL)

Total system load:

wind

coal

nuclear

Storage or transmission needed to avoid curtailment

Inflexible generation can impose minimum generation limit:

“Cycling” of units uncomfortable;

Need emerges for new types

slide15

14

Variability and Uncertainty

Provision always

existed for changes:

both anticipated

and unexpected.

Image credit:Makarov et al, PNNL-19189, 2010

Madsen and Pinson: imm.dtu.dk, 2009

Wind power forecasts a common tool in control rooms.

slide16

15

Example:

Denmark

First to pioneer

controllable wind power, because forecasts not

perfect.

Image credit:

upwind.eu

“Soft Storm Transition” or “Storm Control”:

Farm-level control using pitch

Wind speed

(m/s)

Image credit:

upwind.eu

Power production

(MW)

0 minutes 2

Image credit: Gijs van Kuik, TU Delft, DUWIND

slide17

16

Example:

Denmark

Image credit: Energinet

slide18

17

Switched Power Electronics Interfaces

Synchronous Machine (traditional)

simple, fixed, strong

Power Electronic Interface

Complex, flexible,

relatively fragile

slide19

18

Example:

Ireland

An island electric power system

Must be mostly self-sufficient, even for short periods

Contingency event:

Loss of big generator,

or introduction of

big load

Hirvonen 2003

In first instances:

Need to use energy

stored in system’s

rotating masses

slide20

19

70-80%

System

collapses

immediately

Example:

Ireland

60-70%

System

splits in half,

collapses.

2008/2009

range of

operation

Wind turbine

rotors not

forced to be

synchronous:

->

several

related problems

Eirgrid, All-Island TSO Facilitation of Renewables Studies, FinalStudy Report

slide21

20

Example:

Spain

Electricity grid behaviour during a fault (lightening, tree, etc)

generators can help by

staying connected,

in spite of voltage transient:

formerlyallowed

disconnect level

newrequirement

typicaltransient

Image credit: RED EléctricaEspaña

Bömer 2011

slide22

21

Example:

Spain

Wind power production behaviour *before* “ride-through” requirement: nuclear sized dips.

Image credit: RED EléctricaEspaña

How are the worst situations avoided?

slide23

22

!

Image credit: RED EléctricaEspaña

slide24

23

Wrapping up:

From all these perspectives,

  • which ideas to take home ?

We’re coupling our energy system

to the climate in a new way.

Variability and uncertainty in our power system: not a new thing, but changes can be expected

Generation is always a mixture; wind power plants their own animal offering challenges but also benefits