managing water in a drier and more erratic mena climate n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Managing water in a drier and more erratic MENA climate PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Managing water in a drier and more erratic MENA climate

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 27

Managing water in a drier and more erratic MENA climate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 153 Views
  • Uploaded on

Managing water in a drier and more erratic MENA climate. RPCD Session – Arab Water Week Amman, Jan 27, 2013 . Hamed Assaf. Key points. Climate models project a warmer, a drier and a more erratic MENA climate. Deep uncertainties obscure these projections at the national and regional levels.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Managing water in a drier and more erratic MENA climate' - abram


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
managing water in a drier and more erratic mena climate

Managing water in a drier and more erratic MENA climate

RPCD Session – Arab Water Week

Amman, Jan 27, 2013

HamedAssaf

key points
Key points

Climate models project a warmer, a drier and a more erratic MENA climate.

Deep uncertainties obscure these projections at the national and regional levels.

How to manage water resources under these deep uncertainties.

Key messages

the wet will get wetter and the dry will get drier
The wet will get wetter and the dry will get drier

Difference between the 2081-2100 average and the 1950-2000 average (A1B - GFDL CM2.1 model)

Source: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

slide4

1950-2000 Precipitation

21st Precipitation Change

40°N

Euphrates & Tigris

Beirut 33.90°N

30°N

Mecca 21.43°N

20°N

Sanaa 15.35°N

10°N

Blue Nile

Equator

White Nile

Inches of liquid water per year

slide6

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

slide7

NAO+

Westerlies shift to the north

Wet winters in Europe, Canada and the USA.

Dry winters in southern Europe, North Africa and Eastern Mediterranean.

slide8

NAO-

Westerlies shift south.

Dry winter in Europe, Canada and the USA.

Wet winter in southern Europe, North Africa and Eastern Mediterranean

climate change projections for the mena region
Climate change projections for the MENA Region

Northern Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean – including the headwaters of Tigris and Euphrates – will receive less precipitation.

The Nile headwaters – with less certainty in the Ethiopian highlands - are likely to receive more precipitation.

No or positive increase in precipitation is expected in the southern regions (e.g., Yemen, Oman & UAE).

Dry periods will increase in frequency and duration with significant impacts on rain-fed agriculture and grazing.

Extreme rainfall events will increase in severity and frequency.

Agricultural water demand will increase due to higher evaporation rates and longer growing seasons.

Snowpack will decline.

uncertainties in climate projections
Uncertainties in climate projections

GCMs only project long-term trends at the global level.

They can not be used directly in short-term forecasts at the national or regional levels.

Downscaling – dynamic or statistical – is applied to provide more reliable projections at the regional level.

Deep uncertainties still persist in the timing and distribution of climate change manifestations at the national and regional levels.

For example: there is a general agreement that the Eastern Mediterranean is going to undergo warming and drying, yet the amount and timing of precipitation reduction in a specific basin within Jordan or Lebanon can not be determined based on climate projections.

deep uncertainty
Deep uncertainty?

Deep uncertainty refers to the presence of one or more of the following elements with interrelated and/or unknown probabilities (Hallegate et al. 2012):

  • Multiple possible future worlds;
  • Different views and values of these worlds; and
  • Different and highly interrelated responses.
sources of deep uncertainties in climate projections
Sources of deep uncertainties in climate projections

GHG emissions uncertainties: dictated by socio-economic developments, technologies and policies.

Modeling uncertainties: result from limitations in the scientific understanding and modeling of the climate system.

Natural variability: relates to the chaotic nature of the climatesystem.

slide13
In a region known of its data scarcity, it is quite challenging to reliably assess hydro-climatic variability.

Frequency decreases as more years preceding the base year are included. Overall frequency increased over the past few decades.

Source: World Bank (2007). Making the Most of Scarcity

unrepresentative hydrologic analysis can be costly
Unrepresentative hydrologic analysis can be costly.

Dams were designed based on a wetter period. They did not fill for two decades and could not deliver planned irrigation allocations.

Source: World Bank (2007). Making the Most of Scarcity

managing water under the deep uncertainty of climate change
Managing water under the deep uncertainty of climate change

Stationarityis false. The future can not be solely based on past patterns, especially if available record is short.

Knowledge of climatic changes improves as time progresses. Consequently solutions should be flexible enough to accommodate future changes.

Focus on robust rather than optimal solutions. Optimal solutions are only optimal if assumptions about future conditions are realized.

Robust solutions are flexible solutions that can be adapted – and are consequently less vulnerable - to changing conditions.

Involve the stakeholders and the public in managing water resources.

recent trends in decision making and planning
Recent trends in decision making and planning

The rising prominence of climate change as a development challenge has caused a shift in decision making and planning (from optimal to robust decision making)

Optimal approach: determine optimal solution based on most likely outcome or a set of outcomes each characterized by its probability of occurrence.

Robust approach: given the presence of deep uncertainty, identify plausible outcomes and most significant ones, and assess vulnerabilities and performances of solutions based on stakeholder-centered process. Reiterate as more information becomes available.

case study the colorado river basin water supply and demand study dec 2012
Case Study: The Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study (Dec. 2012)

The Colorado River Basin stretches over 7 states and provides water supply to over 40 million people in addition to irrigation, hydroelectric generation, flood control and ecosystem services.

The study was commissioned by the US Bureau of Reclamation to explore options to address imbalances between water supply and water demand under changing climatic and socio-economic conditions.

The study employs a scenario-based simulation approach guided by input from stakeholders and the public to address high uncertainties in future water supply and demand.

case study the colorado river basin water supply and demand study dec 20121
Case Study: The Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study (Dec. 2012)

Interventions were expressed as portfolios each composed of several options.

The portfolios were assessed in terms of cost, performance in meeting resource requirements and effectiveness in reducing system vulnerabilities.

The study did not recommended a specific course of action. It characterized portfolios as exploratory strategies to guide the process of addressing the system’s vulnerabilities emanating from imbalances between water supply and water demand.

the colorado river basin study approach
The Colorado River Basin Study Approach

Source: US Bureau of Reclamation (2012). “Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study

development of water supply and water d emand scenarios
Development of water supply and water demand scenarios

Source: US Bureau of Reclamation (2012). “Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study

development of options and strategies
Development of options and strategies

Input was solicited from study participants, stakeholders and the public.

Options were categorized into: increase of water supply; reduce water demand, modify operations, and governance.

Options were characterized according to several criteria including: timing, cost, and technical feasibility.

Submitted options (150) were reformulated into representative options (30).

Alternative portfolios (sets of options) were formed to address imbalance between supply and demand.

formulation of portfolios
Formulation of portfolios

C: Favors environmental protection and low energy consumption

(GW desalination, reuse, & watershed management)

B: Low-risk strategy, proven technology & reliability (desalination, water reuse & conservation)

world bank s flagship report adaptation to a changing climate in the arab countries
World Bank’s Flagship Report “Adaptation to a changing climate in the Arab countries”

Developed through a consultative process involving Arab governments, stakeholders & experts.

Launched recently in Doha’s climate change conference.

Provides assessment of the impact of climate change on the Arab region and offers advice on adaptation strategies and options in key areas (health, water, agriculture, urban development and tourism).

key messages and policy options water
Key messages and policy options - Water

Climate change will aggravate the water supply and demand gap.

Integrate water resources management across water and nonwater sectors (agriculture, tourism & urban development).

Upgrade disaster risk management for floods and droughts.

Water demand-side management is important given the limited scope of securing newer water supplies.

key messages and policy options water1
Key messages and policy options - Water

Improve water-use efficiency in agriculture.

Develop laws and guidelines supported by effective enforcements to protect water resources from pollution.

Enhance regional economic integration to facilitate water investment and virtual water trade.

Invest in research & development.

Improve water governance